We're just about a quarter of the way through the NFL season, and we've learned quite a bit about every team in the league. There's plenty of time for teams to either continue as they've been or surprise us by reversing course. But we have enough information to start making educated guesses about who is good and who is not, and who is probably just average.

That's what we're here to do today. We're sorting all 32 NFL teams into the following tiers: The dregs of the league, the teams that are probably not that good, the teams that are probably average, the teams that are probably pretty good and the teams that look like inner-circle contenders. Let's take a look. 

Note: Teams within each tier are listed in alphabetical order. 

Tier 5: The Dregs

These two teams are really, really bad. They're not the only 0-4 teams, but they're clearly the ones with the least amount of hope.

Tier 4: Probably Not That Good

These teams range from 0-4 to 1-3 to 2-2 to even 3-1, but the underlying performance and/or schedule they've faced indicates that they're probably not going to be legitimate contenders. Some of them may make the playoffs, but they're not likely to make much noise, if any. 

Arizona scored an at-the-time surprising victory over the Chargers in Week 1, but it has since gone 0-3, including a loss to the Jameis Winston-led Giants last week. Cleveland is 3-1, but each victory has required a game-winning score in the final five minutes, and the Browns have only out-gained their opponents once. Green Bay's defense without Micah Parsons is eminently beatable, and its offensive line looks like a disaster. That's probably untenable unless Parsons drastically changes the Packers' defensive fortunes when he returns.

Houston is 0-4, and its defense does not look as good as expected. The passing offense has been good when Nico Collins has been active, but the Texans can't run the ball at all. The Colts have scored back-to-back victories, but their offense has looked nothing like it did last year as Daniel Jones works his way back from injury and the defense remains too friendly for them to be considered a good team just yet. The Chargers are the NFL's most disappointing team, and the less said about them, the better.

New Orleans can seemingly only move the ball in garbage time, and the Saints' defense has been unable to consistently generate stops. The Giants are 3-1, but their last two wins with Winston at the helm have gone against the Titans and Cardinals, so we're not exactly buying into them being all that good. The Jets looked much more competent offensively until this past week against the Bears, and they've given up 381 and 492 yards to their last two opponents.

Pittsburgh has really only looked good for one game so far. Tampa hasn't looked good or even acceptable at all this season, and is dealing with a backup quarterback situation for the next several weeks. The Bucs could already be out of the picture by the time Baker Mayfield gets back — even in the NFC South. And the Commanders' defense is once again just not good enough for them to be a real factor. 

Tier 3: Probably About Average

The Falcons have been surprisingly good defensively thanks to the league's most surprising pass rush, and the offense has looked really good the last two weeks since Michael Penix returned. The only remaining questions are how real that offensive improvement is and whether they can actually keep up that pass-rush productivity. Carolina looks pretty good behind a resurgent Bryce Young, but defensive injuries could undermine the Panthers until their top two cornerbacks return.

Denver's offense has looked miserable so far, except in the second half against the Jaguars, and now the Broncos will be without key players like Patrick Surtain II and Pat Bryant for a while. Still, there is upside with Sean Payton and then Vance Joseph's defense. The Lions have an explosive offense and a decrepit defense. It's hard to know what to do with them because they simply can't get consistent stops, but most teams can't stop them, either. 

The Raiders' only loss is to the Chiefs, and by just three points... but their three wins are against the Dolphins, Chargers and Saints, so we don't necessarily know how good they are just yet. We're waiting to see a little bit more before moving them up. The Pats haven't exactly lit the world on fire just yet, but they did just beat the Bills and looked good doing it. The Eagles have looked just as annoying as ever in both their wins and their losses, and they're hemorrhaging offensive linemen and skill-position players. The roster still has a lot of talent on defense, though, so if they can get things into gear on that end, they still have a chance to take the NFC East.

Tier 2: Probably Pretty Good

The Ravens have looked incredible whenever Zay Flowers has been on the field. So long as Lamar Jackson's injury isn't long-term and doesn't hamper him when he returns, we feel pretty comfortable declaring them a good team. The same goes for the Bears, who have been able to run the ball on everyone except the Vikings and should get Caleb Williams back fairly soon. Their defense has also been surprisingly effective so far, even though much of that has been about their third-down performance.

We need to monitor the injuries to Ja'Marr Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (adductor), but we know how good Cincinnati's offense can be when all the principals are healthy, and the defense has looked better than it did last year. The Dallas defense looks as bad as ever, but the Cowboys have scored at a rate that would rank the best in the NFL since 2000 (3.39 points per drive). When your offense is that good, you can overcome a bad defense — at least during the regular season. Minnesota is the inverse of Dallas. The defense is so good that it can overcome an offense that looks less than ordinary. 

Tier 1: The Inner Circle (For Now)

Buffalo hit a snag in its game last week against the Patriots, but it has otherwise looked pretty excellent. While we need to keep an eye on Jim Leonhard's defense, the offense should bounce back compared to how it looked a week ago. Aside from the aforementioned second half against Denver, Jacksonville has looked like one of the league's elite teams. We're willing to consider that the exception to the rule and keep them in this group.

Kansas City might need to find some help at wide receiver after injuries to Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton, but Kenneth Walker III has taken the offense to another level, and the defense under Steve Spagnuolo always rounds into playoff form eventually. The Rams have alternated looking ordinary (or worse) with looking much more like the team we expected coming into the season, but so long as they can make it through the season healthy, they have as high a two-way upside as any team in the NFL.

San Francisco and Seattle have looked like the two best teams in the league so far. The Niners cannot be stopped offensively, and despite a blip against Washington, the Seahawks still have arguably the NFL's best defense when healthy (it's them or the Vikings). Both of those teams should be a major factor all year long.

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