Just when you think you have the NFL figured out, the league's unpredictability comes back to bite you. That was again the case in Week 7, with upsets like the Dolphins knocking off the Jets as underdogs for their first victory of the 2026 season. Week 7 was a rough one for our spread betting picks, with the Dolphins' upset part of a clean sweep for teams we faded. The only way to right the ship is to get back in the saddle and pick three more for Week 8. Here are our best picks against the spread for Week 8, with odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and info from the SportsLine Projection Model. Use the latest DraftKings promo code to wager on NFL Week 8 games and get $200 in bonus bets and 3 free months of NBA League Pass:
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $5,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 8 of the 2026 NFL season on a 58-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.
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NFL Week 8 best ATS bets
Bills -3 vs. Ravens
Lamar Jackson was ultimately ruled out after making a late appearance at practice in Week 7, but now the Ravens are on a two-game losing streak in what looks to be a competitive AFC North. He's logged full practices throughout the week ahead of this game. Jackson's return is not going to matter much for the Bills, who enter Week 8 after a bye. Buffalo has won its last two meetings with Baltimore, including a wild Week 1 contest last season where the Bills used a 22-point fourth quarter to win 41-40. The SportsLine model has Buffalo covering the spread in 52% of simulations.
Broncos +1.5 vs. Chiefs
In Week 1, the Chiefs steamrolled the Broncos 31-10 behind Kenneth Walker III and an aggressive defense. Denver has recovered nicely since then, picking up five wins in its next six contests. Kansas City is trying to recover from one of the worst offensive performances ever in the Patrick Mahomes era against the Seahawks. The Chiefs failed to reach the red zone in a game for the first time under Mahomes, and Harrison Butker's missed kicks further compounded Kansas City's issues. Denver covers the spread in the rematch in 53% of simulations.
Seahawks -3 vs. Bears
The SportsLine model recommended Seattle -3 in Week 7 against the Chiefs, and I foolishly went against it. I'm not going to do that here, especially after seeing what Mike Macdonald's defense did to Mahomes and Co. The Bears do benefit from additional rest and can run the ball well, so this might be more competitive than the Week 7 game. Still, the Seahawks are at home and have confidence after shutting down Walker and Kansas City. The defending champions cover the spread in 63% of simulations, and they'll be getting some much-needed reinforcements in the run game in Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price.
