NFL picks: Kyren Williams prop among SportsLine expert's best bets for Sunday's Divisional Round games

The New England Patriots and Chicago Bears both had miserable seasons in 2024 but made incredible turnarounds this year with new head coaches and second-year quarterbacks. Now, they each are one win away from playing in the championship game of their respective conferences.

New England, which followed its second straight 4-13 campaign by going 14-3 in 2025 with Mike Vrabel at the helm and Drake Maye having an MVP-caliber season, hosts the Houston Texans in the AFC Divisional Round on Sunday. The Bears, who went 5-12 last year but finished 11-6 in Ben Johnson's first year as an NFL head coach and Caleb Williams' second campaign after being selected with first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, take on the visiting Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Divisional Round.

The Patriots were locked in a tight battle with the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card Round last weekend before pulling away late for a 16-3 victory. Meanwhile, Chicago trailed Green Bay by 18 points at halftime but rallied to defeat the Packers 31-27 for its first playoff win since 2010.

For Sunday's matchups, top sportsbooks have set the passing yards prop for Maye at 219.5 yards, the rushing yards prop for Chicago's D'Andre Swift at 54.5 and the receiving yards prop for Los Angeles' Puka Nacua at 96.5.

Before you play a side on Maye, Swift, Nacua or any player prop for Sunday's Divisional Round games, you need to see what SportsLine player prop expert PropBetGuy has to say. The expert is +1616 on his last 104 NFL player prop picks. Here are his picks and analysis.

Jayden Higgins Under 18.5 yards longest reception

Higgins was Under this line in 10 of his 17 games this season, including five of the last six. Even though Texans leading receiver Nico Collins (concussion) won't be suiting up, I'm not buying the inflated line in a brutal matchup.

Higgins' catch rate on throws that traveled at least 15 air yards is 40% on 1.2 targets per game (C.J. Stroud is at 38% on those throws overall). The Patriots allow a 35% completion rate on 15-plus air yards to receivers aligned out wide since cornerback Christian Gonzalez's season debut in Week 4 - with only 17 completions over 14 games.

Fellow wide receiver Xavier Hutchinson will see deep targets - as will Christian Kirk, who is coming off a massive performance. So, despite the absence of Collins, I'll be fading the rookie Higgins.

And of course, the weather could impact the deep passing game. I'd bet this line down to Under 17.5 yards.

Kyren Williams Over 62.5 rushing yards

Williams has cleared the 60-yard mark in 14 of his 18 games this season. Despite Blake Corum's emergence since the Rams' Week 8 bye, Williams has kept pace with his teammate with 5.1 yards per carry, and a 59% carry and rush yard share.

He'll now face the Bears, who rank 28th in run defense DVOA (per FTN). Chicago allowed 104 running back rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry in the regular season. However, those numbers jump up to 120 and 5.2 across seven contests when linebacker T.J. Edwards (IR) doesn't play the full game and Tremaine Edmunds does.

The weather should be conducive to running and I have Williams projected around 70 yards. I'd bet this up to Over 64.5.