NFL predictions: Ravens-Steelers matchups will determine AFC North champ, according to proven model

In nine seasons in the NFL, Baltimore Ravens defensive back Marlon Humphrey has earned first-team All-Pro honors twice, reached the Pro Bowl four times and was named the team MVP once. So when he speaks up, the message just means more.

And earlier this week, Humphrey didn't mince any words when talking about the importance of Sunday's showdown against the rival Pittsburgh Steelers. 

"If you can't get up for this one, I think that shows something about your character," he said. "I think that shows something about your will. And honestly I think that just shows if you are a Raven or if you're not a Raven. And I think how we come out [of] this game, how we prepare this week, will kind of do echoes not only for this game, but for the rest of the season because we're basically in playoff football right now.

"They say there's no game that's a must-win game. [But] this is definitely a must-win game."

The SportsLine Inside the Lines team and Projection Model agree with Humphrey that much will be on the line on Sunday at M&T Bank Stadium. With just five weeks remaining in the regular season, the teams enter Week 14 tied for the lead in the AFC North at 6-6. (Baltimore technically holds the tiebreaker over Pittsburgh by virtue of a better winning percentage in common games.) They are two games clear of the third-place Bengals and four games ahead of the last-place Browns. 

According to the Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, the division title will essentially come down to the two games the Ravens and Steelers have to play this season: Sunday's and the regular season finale at Pittsburgh in Week 18. Both teams have roughly the same chance to win the AFC North entering Week 14 (48.9% for Baltimore and 44.9% for Pittsburgh). Both would have greater than a 90.0% chance to win the division with a sweep of the other, and both would be nearly eliminated by being swept by the other.

The most interesting scenario is if the teams split the two matchups. If that happens, the Steelers would have a slight edge, according to the model. Why? They have a slightly easier schedule. Pittsburgh's other three games are against the Dolphins (5-7), at the Lions (7-5) and at the Browns (3-9), while Baltimore's other games are at the Bengals (4-8), against the Patriots (11-2) and at the Packers (8-3-1). The Ravens' remaining strength of schedule (55.9%) ranks as the third-most difficult in the league, behind only the Chargers and Bears.

Add in the fact that Sunday's game is at Baltimore, and the conclusion is obvious: Sunday's game means more to the Ravens than the Steelers. Baltimore is a 5.5-point favorite against Pittsburgh.

Sunday's game is set to be the first between Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers, who have combined for six MVP awards. But neither is playing his best football, and both are nursing injuries. Jackson has just 98 rushing yards in five games since returning from a hamstring ailment, the worst in a five-start stretch in his career. Also, over his last three games he has completed just 44 of 80 passes for 592 yards, zero touchdowns and three interceptions. He did not practice on Thursday because of an ankle injury.

Meanwhile, Rodgers has passed for 161 yards or fewer in his last three starts. This is the first time the future Hall of Famer has passed for 175 yards or fewer in three straight starts in his career. Rodgers, who has been dealing with a fractured left wrist since Week 11, returned to practice on Thursday.

Rodgers and the Steelers are just 2-5 in their last seven games. 

"We still control our own destiny," Pittsburgh linebacker Payton Wilson said earlier this week. He added, "We still have a chance to have home playoff games, win this division, and that's kind of what's on our mind. This Sunday is obviously one of the biggest tests for that."