We've seen some major upsets already this NFL season. Week 5 began with one as Dallas was stunned at home to Tampa Bay. Which underdogs will get the job done this weekend? We saw quite a few upsets in Week 4 like the Carolina Panthers beating the Detroit Lions, the Jacksonville Jaguars defeating the Cincinnati Bengals and the New England Patriots beating the Buffalo Bills. Which teams are on upset alert in Week 5? Bet on the NFL and more at FanDuel, where new users can get up to $250 in bonus bets:
We've fired up the SportsLine Projection Model to break down Sunday's NFL games. The model entered Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season on a 55-44 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns. Bet the NFL at BetMGM and get up to $1,500 in bonus bets:
Best underdogs for NFL Week 5
- Indianapolis Colts +3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Green Bay Packers +1.5 vs. Chicago Bears
- Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 vs. Denver Broncos
Colts vs. Steelers: Colts +3
Indianapolis has won two straight and heads to Pittsburgh having not allowed more than 20 points in either of those two wins. Alec Pierce's injury remains an issue but Pittsburgh just lost to the Browns and remains inconsistent. The Colts are fully capable of getting a positive result here. Indianapolis covers in 55% of the model's simulations.
Packers vs. Bears: Packers +1.5
This likely wouldn't be one of the recommended plays if Caleb Williams was healthy, but Chicago will once agin be starting Tyson Bagent under center while Williams recovers from his hamstring injury. Bagent led a 23-12 victory over the New York Jets on Sunday but the Packers should theoretically represent more of a challenge -- theoretically, at least. Green Bay hasn't exactly lit the world on fire to this point but a rivalry game at Lambeau Field should hopefully bring out the best in the team. The Packers cover in 52% of the model's simulations.
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Chargers vs. Broncos: Chargers +3.5
It can't go on like this, can it?
It's bad for the Bolts right now. The injury report is too long and the zero in the win column gets uglier with each passing week. Those aren't exactly the circumstances under which you want to see the Broncos coming to town. But at some point, Justin Herbert needs to take a game by the horns and take over. Denver will likely be without Patrick Surtain II this week and fellow cornerback Riley Moss is dealing with a rib injury. If both are out, the Chargers could have some breathing room to attack downfield. Los Angeles covers in 54% of the model's simulations.
