UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh: Odds, picks, best bets, how to watch on Saturday, Feb. 28
Here's what bettors need to know about UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh, available exclusively on Paramount+
UFC returns exclusively on Paramount+ on Saturday, Feb. 28, with UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh in Mexico City. The main event features two-time UFC flyweight champion Brandon Moreno and Lone'er Kavanagh, who replaces Asu Almabayev for this bout. Almabayev had to withdraw due to a hand injury. We'll break down what fans and bettors need to know ahead of UFC Fight Night with odds, picks and recent form for the main event and main card.
Paramount+ is the only place to Stream EVERY UFC numbered event and UFC Fight Night live, at no additional cost. A subscription also gives you access to other sports content, including the UEFA Champions League, college basketball, the NFL and Big Ten on CBS and countless movies and shows. Plans start at just $8.99 per month, so sign up right here.
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh main event odds via DraftKings
- Brandon Moreno (-218) vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (+180)
Moreno is the favorite and will get a boost fighting in his home country with the crowd likely to be behind him, but he's actually lost three of his last five fights. His most recent setback was a TKO at the hands of Tatsuro Taira in December, and four of his last five fights have been decided via decision. Kavanagh had won his first nine fights prior to a loss to Charles Johnson via knockout at UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang in August. Four of Moreno's last five fights have gone all five rounds, and the Over/Under on this main event is 4.5 (Over -140, Under +110). Moreno to win via decision is the most likely method of victory at +170, but the fighter has actually recorded 11 of his 23 overall wins by submission. That's +330 at DraftKings. Kavanagh has won eight of his nine bouts by either knockout or decision. Kavanagh to win via knockout is +550 while him taking a victory via decision is +350.
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh main card odds via DraftKings
- Marlon Vera (+245) vs. David Martinez (-305)
- Daniel Zellhuber (-500) vs. King Green (+380)
- Edgar Chairez (-325) vs. Felipe Bunes (+260)
- Imanol Rodriguez (-455) vs. Kevin Borjas (+350)
- Santiago Luna (-625) vs. Angel Pacheco (+455)
Watch UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanaugh on Paramount+
Martinez has won nine fights in a row entering Saturday's bout against Vera, who has lost four of his last five fights. The last three losses have all been via decision, but six of Martinez's nine victories have come via knockout or TKO. If you're looking for some value on this fight, that might be the route to go as Martinez to win via KO/TKO is +650 as opposed to -225 to win by decision.
Both Zellhuber and Green come into this fight with mixed results of late, but Zellhuber is a huge favorite because he's younger and fighting in his hometown. He's 3-3 in his last six fights and has lost back-to-back decisions enteriing this bout. Green has lost three of his last five fights, though he did get a win via decision over Lance Gibson Jr. on Dec. 13. Zellhuber to win via KO/TKO is +150 and winning by decision is +140, so that's where the value lies as opposed to taking the overall money line.
Chairez will also be getting backing from the home crowd when the fighter battles Bunes from Brazil. Eight of Chairez's 12 overall wins have come via submission, and he's won two of his last three fights via this method. Chairez to win via submission is +275.
Rodriguez and Luna are both undefeated heading into their respective fights on Saturday and they'll look to maintain that perfect record. Rodriguez has won his last three fights, and five of his six overall, via knockout or TKO. He's +100 to win via KO/TKO against Borjas, who has lost three of his last four bouts. Luna is 7-0 with four submission wins and three KO/TKO wins. He's +130 to win via KO/TKO against Pacheco, who has lost his last two fights via decision. Luna is +200 to win via submission.
