World Baseball Classic picks: Best bets from MLB expert for Saturday's Japan vs. Venezuela quarterfinal
SportsLine expert Angelo "Amags" Magliocca has dug into Saturday's Japan vs. Venezuela and offers his best bets for the World Baseball Classic quarterfinal
Three-time World Baseball Classic champion Japan will try to keep rolling Saturday but faces a tough test when it takes on Venezuela in a WBC quarterfinal in Miami. Japan went 4-0 in pool play, outscoring its opponents by 25 runs with an offense led by MLB superstar and four-time league MVP Shohei Ohtani. The Venezuelans went 3-1 to finish second in their group, with the only loss a 7-5 setback to the Dominican Republic in their pool-play finale. Venezuela's lineup boasts such MLB players as former MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., Eugenio Suarez and Jackson Chourio.
First pitch is set for 9 p.m. ET at Miami's loanDepot Park. Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Los Angeles Dodgers is expected to take the mound for Japan, while Ranger Suarez of the Boston Red Sox will get the nod for Venezuela. Japan is a -210 money-line favorite at DraftKings, with Venezuela priced at +165, and the Over/Under for total runs scored is 7.5.
Before you consider making any wagers on Japan vs. Venezuela, you have to see what SportsLine baseball expert Angelo Magliocca is betting for this quarterfinal.
Magliocca, also known as "Amags" is a hugely profitable MLB capper who uses his deep knowledge of baseball to find value on player props, sides and totals. He is coming off another strong season at SportsLine. Over the 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 MLB seasons, Amags is up 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays while winning an additional 25.3 units on ladder plays.
Here's a look at his best bets and analysis for Japan vs. Venezuela on Saturday:
Japan vs. Venezuela best bets
- Maikel Garcia 1+ Hits (-110 DraftKings, 0.5 units)
- Maikel Garcia 2+ Hits/Runs/RBI (+170 DK, 0.5 units)
- Ronald Acuña Jr 2+ Hits/Runs/RBI (-105 DK, 0.5 units)
Team Japan will send Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the mound for his second WBC appearance, and with the pitch count increased to 80 in this round, he should play a major role in determining how this game ends up.
Shohei Ohtani is of course the biggest name in the Japan lineup, but former MVP Ronald Acuña Jr will look to power Team Venezuela to not only win, but keep its hope alive for the Olympics, as well. It can qualify for the 2028 Summer Olympics if it is one of the final two teams left in this tournament among Venezuela, Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. If Puerto Rico loses and Venezuela wins, it would qualify, so there's a lot riding on this game and tournament for the team from South America.
The Japanese hit eight home runs and scored 34 runs during pool play while going undefeated, but they won't have the "home-field advantage" anymore, despite being the home team in this matchup. I'm giving the advantage to Venezuela in terms of travel and the game environment, as it remained in Miami and will certainly have a large contingent of fans in attendance.
Venezuela's pitching staff only allowed 11 runs in pool play, with seven of those coming against the Dominican Republic, so there's reason to believe that Ranger Suarez and this bullpen can keep team Japan's offense at bay. Suarez is one of the better starting pitchers in MLB and has found a bunch of success in recent years, but he only threw two innings and faced 10 batters in his first appearance, so it's uncertain how long he will last.
Still, the bullpen features stellar MLB relievers Daniel Palencia and Eduard Bazardo, who can help put out a fire when needed. I don't give much of an edge to Venezuela in this game, but the bullpens have some solid arms on both sides, so that's close to even in my opinion.
While I'm not picking a side or total here being we're at 7.5 runs for the full game total and I think it's about right, I'm going to pass and play some player props. One note is that I would take the Japanese side and an alternate Under if you can, so look for some parlay opportunities with Japan money line paired with an under of 9.5 or 10 runs if possible.
Being that the Venezuelan pitching has been solid and it is rolling with a tough MLB veteran lefty as the starter, I'm going to stay off the Japanese hitter props. Plus they're the favored home team, so you're likely to lose at least one at-bat.
Maikel Garcia has recorded a hit in each of the three games he's started and was the top producer for Venezuela against the DR with four hits while in the second spot in the order.
Luis Arraez leads the team with seven hits in 14 at-bats, but Garcia is right behind him with six in 14 at-bats. The third baseman should continue hitting near the top of the order. Plus, we get Venezuela as the away team here so I love playing the 1+ hits prop bet.
Facing Yamamoto and the Japan bullpen won't be an easy task, but getting +170 for the 2+ level on the hits/runs/RBI prop also interests me and is showing a good bit of value, so I'm adding it to my card as well.
At this price, I would be mad at myself for not taking Ronald Acuña Jr to go over the 1.5 hits/runs/RBI prop, even if it's against Yamamoto and a solid bullpen. He hopefully will be hitting in the top third of the order, and if Venezuela wants to have any chance of winning this game, Acuña will have to be part of the run-scoring efforts.
The Venezuela pitching can likely only hold the Japanese offense off the board for so long, so at some point the former MLB MVP is going to have to make his presence felt. Even if they are some of the best pitchers in the world, I trust a healthy Acuña against any pitcher. Getting him at this price on the away team near the top of the order, I'll take the value here.
