Wednesday marks 40 day exactly until MLB's Aug. 3 trade deadline, so it's as good a time as any to check in on the biggest-name player who might be dealt: Tigers ace lefty and two-time AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. He could be facing his next team tonight at Comerica Park vs. the New York Yankees to conclude their series. It's a 6:40 ET first pitch and Prime Video exclusive.
Yankees vs. Tigers MLB same-game parlay
- Detroit money line
- Alt Under 10.5
DraftKings SGP price: +102
I read pretty much all the national MLB experts, and it seems that about half think the Tigers will deal the pending free-agent Skubal and half think they won't. I personally think they should, because they won't be able to afford Skubal and how important is it just to get an AL wild card spot? I say that because it might be worth keeping Skubal if Detroit thought it could win the AL Central and earn one of the two byes straight to the Division Series.
But the team is sitting in fourth place in the division, 7.5 games back. It is five games back of the last wild card spot, with several teams in front. The SportsLine Projection Model gives the Tigers only a 20.0% shot at the playoffs with a win total of 77.2. Last year, the Tigers had the memorable collapse in the division but got the final WC spot with 87 victories.
The fewest wins for an MLB wild card team in a full 162-game season is 84. At FanDuel, Detroit is +186 to just reach 80 victories and +340 for the playoffs.
The longer the Tigers hold on to Skubal, the more the price likely drops (the acquiring team would prefer as many starts as possible), plus the risk of another injured list stint. Since having that revolutionary elbow surgery that kept Skubal out for six weeks instead of three months, he has been fairly mediocre at 0-1 with a 4.35 ERA in two starts â and has yet to complete six innings. But the velocity has been there, and Skubal has 12 strikeouts to two walks in those 10.1 innings.
Recently, Skubal said this to the Detroit media: "The reality of the situation is, we need to play better baseball or else come the [trade] deadline, you give the front office an option to reassess where this team is."
And the Tigers have played better in winning four of five. Needless to say, any big-market contender would have interest in trading for Skubal, with the teams most mentioned being the Yankees, Blue Jays, Braves, Cubs and Dodgers. I would personally consider Atlanta the favorite because of the biggest rotation need after they lost Spencer Strider to the 60-day IL, and the team should get a first-round bye in the playoffs as NL East champion.
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Perhaps some smaller-market teams get in the mix simply to play him the rest of this season. We are not likely to see anything major happen until after the July 11-12 amateur draft, as front offices are largely focused on that.
As for tonight, Skubal is 2-2 with a 2.45 ERA in six starts vs. the Yankees. He last saw them in April 2025 in Detroit and got the win with six shutout innings, allowing four hits. The model has Skubal at 6.0 innings tonight, 6.8 strikeouts, 5.9 hits allowed and 2.4 earned runs. At DraftKings, he's +167 to win and set at Over/Under 6.5 strikeouts.
New York is an excellent 18-9 vs. southpaws and owns the No. 2 OPS (.786) in the majors against them, but certainly the currently injured Aaron Judge played a role in those numbers.
It's lefty Ryan Weathers (2-5, 4.13 ERA) for the Yanks â as the No. 5 starter, he'd probably be kicked to the bullpen if the team acquired Skubal and if everyone else (i.e. Max Fried) is healthy. Weathers started the season well but hasn't earned a win in seven straight games. He has allowed at least five runs in four of the past six. So the need for a fifth starter might be growing.
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It's hard to trust Weathers right now, and the Yanks might be looking ahead to Thursday's series opener at Fenway Park. Skubal will see a team that perhaps will be willing to trade for him or pay him $400 million as a free agent, so I expect near his best. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
