With Virginia's 85-77 victory over Texas Tech in the NCAA Tournament championship game, the 2018-19 college basketball season was completed. So now it's time to look ahead to the 2019-20 season. And, if these projections prove correct, some familiar faces could be back in the Final Four because I really do think Michigan State and Virginia should be good enough to make back-to-back Final Fours.
They're No. 1 and No. 2 in the Top 25 And 1.
And before you scream "but it's too early to rank teams for next season because we aren't even sure who's coming and going," understand that I did this exact exercise on the night of the 2018 title game, and 14 of the 16 schools that ultimately made the Sweet 16 of the 2019 NCAA Tournament were in my initial Top 25 And 1. So, at least last year, these rankings were a nice preview of the season to come.
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As always, I've communicated with industry sources in an attempt to make educated-guesses about which players will ultimately enter, and remain in, the 2019 NBA Draft. But, to be clear, I do not expect every educated-guess to be correct because there are surprises every year. So each time somebody makes a decision that runs counter to what's projected here, I'll update and adjust these rankings accordingly. That's a promise. And another thing worth noting is that I assigned every uncommitted top-100 prospect to the school most likely to enroll him, according to 247Sports' Crystal Ball projections. So that's why Cole Anthony is on North Carolina's roster, why Matthew Hurt is on Duke's roster, why Trendon Watford is on Memphis' roster, so on and so forth.
Top 25 And 1
| 1 | |
| Coach: Tom Izzo 2018-19 record: 32-7 Notable players definitely gone: Matt McQuaid, Kenny Goins Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Cassius Winston, Nick Ward, Joshua Langford, Xavier Tillman, Aaron Henry, Kyle Ahrens, Gabe Brown, Foster Loyer, Thomas Kithier, Marcus Bingham Expected additions: Malik Hall, Rocket Watts, Julius Marble | |
| 2 | |
| Coach: Tony Bennett 2018-19 record: 35-3 Notable players definitely gone: Ty Jerome, Jack Salt Other expected departures: De'Andre Hunter Notable players expected to return: Kyle Guy, Mamadi Diakite, Braxton Key, Jay Huff, Kihei Clark, Marco Anthony Expected additions: Kadin Shedrick, Casey Morsell | |
| 3 | |
| Coach: Mike Krzyzewski 2018-19 record: 32-6 Notable players definitely gone: RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish Other expected departures: Zion Williamson Notable players expected to return: Tre Jones, Marques Bolden, Alex O'Connell, Jack White, Javin DeLaurier, Jordan Goldwire, Joey Baker Expected additions: Vernon Carey, Wendell Moore, Boogie Ellis, Matthew Hurt | |
| 4 | |
| Coach: John Calipari 2018-19 record: 30-7 Notable players definitely gone: Reid Travis, PJ Washington Other expected departures: Tyler Herro, Keldon Johnson Notable players expected to return: Ashton Hagans, Immanuel Quickley, Nick Richards, EJ Montgomery, Jemarl Baker Expected additions: Nate Sestina, Kahlil Whitney, Tyrese Maxey, Keion Brooks, Dontaie Allen | |
| 5 | |
| Coach: John Beilein 2018-19 record: 30-7 Notable players definitely gone: N/A Other expected departures: Ignas Brazdeikis, Charles Matthews Notable players expected to return: Jordan Poole, Jon Teske, Zavier Simpson, Isaiah Livers, Eli Brooks, Austin Davis, David DeJulius, Brandon Johns Expected additions: Jalen Wilson, Cole Bajema | |
| 6 | |
| Coach: Chris Mack 2018-19 record: 20-14 Notable players definitely gone: Christen Cunningham, Khwan Fore Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Jordan Nwora, Dwayne Sutton, Steven Enoch, Malik Williams, Ryan McMahon, Darius Perry, V.J. King Expected additions: Lamarr Kimble, Samuell Williamson, Aidan Igheion, David Johnson, Josh Nickelberry, Jaelyn Withers, Quinn Slazinski | |
| 7 | |
| Coach: Steve Wojciechowski 2018-19 record: 24-10 Notable players definitely gone: Sam Hauser, Joey Hauser, Joseph Chartouny Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Markus Howard, Sacar Anim, Theo John, Ed Morrow, Greg Elliott, Jamal Cain Expected additions: Koby McEwin, Dexter Akanno | |
| 8 | |
| Coach: Mark Turgeon 2018-19 record: 23-11 Notable players definitely gone: Ivan Bender Other expected departures: Bruno Fernando Notable players expected to return: Anthony Cowan, Jalen Smith, Darryl Morsell, Aaron Wiggins, Serrel Smith, Eric Ayala, Ricky Lindo Expected additions: Makhi Mitchel, Makhel Mitchell, Donta Scott | |
| 9 | |
| Coach: Roy Williams 2018-19 record: 29-7 Notable players definitely gone: Cameron Johnson, Luke Maye, Kenny Williams Other expected departures: Coby White, Nassir Little Notable players expected to return: Garrison Brooks, Sterling Manley, Brandon Robinson, Leaky Black, Seventh Woods Expected additions: Armando Bacot, Jeremiah Francis, Cole Anthony | |
| 10 | |
Coach: Bill Self 2018-19 record: 26-10 Notable players definitely gone: Dedric Lawson, Lagerald Vick, KJ Lawson, Charlie Moore, Quintin Grimes Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Udoka Azubuike, Devon Dotson, Ochai Agbaji, Marcus Garrett, David McCormack, Mitch Lightfoot Expected additions: Isaac McBride, Christian Braun | |
| 11 | |
Coach: Mark Few 2018-19 record: 33-4 Notable players definitely gone: Rui Hachimura, Josh Perkins, Geno Crandall, Jeremy Jones Other expected departures: Brandon Clarke Notable players expected to return: Zach Norvell, Corey Kispert, Killian Tillie, Filip Petrusev, Joel Ayayi Expected additions: Drew Timme, Anton Watson, Pavel Zakharov, Oumar Ballo, Martynas Arlauskas, Brock Ravet | |
| 12 | |
| Coach: Kevin Willard 2018-19 record: 20-14 Notable players definitely gone: Michael Nzei Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Darnell Brodie, Myles Powell, Myles Cale, Romaro Gill, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Quincy McKnight, Anthony Nelson, Taurean Thompson Expected additions: Ikey Obiagu (transfer), Tyrese Samuel, Dashawn Davis | |
| 13 | |
| Coach: Jay Wright 2018-19 record: 26-10 Notable players definitely gone: Phil Booth, Eric Paschall, Joe Cremo, Jahvon Quinerly Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Collin Gillispie, Saddiq Bey, Jermaine Samuels, Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree, Cole Swider, Brandon Slater, Tim Delaney Expected additions: Bryan Antoine, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Justin Moore, Eric Dixon | |
| 14 | |
| Coach: Bruce Pearl 2018-19 record: 30-10 Notable players definitely gone: Bryce Brown, Jared Harper, Malik Dunbar, Horace Spencer Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Chuma Okeke, Samir Doughty, Austin Wiley, Anfernee McLemore, J'Von McCormick, Danjel Purifoy Expected additions: Isaac Okoro, Tyrell Jones, Jaylin Williams, Babatunde Akingbola, Allen Flanigan, Jamal Johnson | |
| 15 | |
| Coach: Dana Altman 2018-19 record: 25-13 Notable players definitely gone: Bol Bol, Louis King, Paul White, Ehab Amin Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Louis King, Payton Pritchard, Victor Bailey, Kenny Wooten, Will Richardson, Miles Norris, Francis Okoro Expected additions: CJ Walker, Isaac Johnson, Chandler Lawson, Chris Duarte | |
| 16 | |
| Coach: Sean Miller 2018-19 record: 17-15 Notable players definitely gone: Justin Coleman, Ryan Luther Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Brandon Randolph, Brandon Williams, Chase Jeter, Dylan Smith, Ira Lee, Devonaire Doutrive, Alex Barcello Expected additions: Nico Mannion, Josh Green, Zeke Nnaji, Terry Armstrong, Christian Koloko, Stone Gettings | |
| 17 | |
Coach: Fran McCaffery 2018-19 record: 23-12 Notable players definitely gone: Nicolas Baer Other expected departures: Tyler Cook Notable players expected to return: Jordan Bohannon, Maishe Dailey, Luka Garza, Ryan Kriener, Connor McCaffery, Isaiah Moss, Joe Wieskamp, Jack Nunge, Cordell Pemsl Expected additions: Patrick McCaffery, Joe Toussaint | |
| 18 | |
| Coach: Kelvin Sampson 2018-19 record: 33-4 Notable players definitely gone: Corey Davis, Breaon Brady, Galen Robinson Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Dejon Jarreau, Cedrick Alley, Armoni Brooks, Brison Gresham, Fabian White, Chris Harris, Nate Hinton Expected additions: Caleb Mills, Justin Gorham | |
| 19 | |
| Coach: Matt Painter 2018-19 record: 25-8 Notable players definitely gone: Carsen Edwards, Ryan Cline, Grady Eifert Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Nojel Eastern, Eric Hunter Jr., Aaron Wheeler, Matt Haarms, Trevion Williams, Evan Boudreaux, Sasha Stefanovic Expected additions: Brandon Newman, Isaiah Thompson, Mason Gillis | |
| 20 | |
| Coach: Penny Hardaway 2018-19 record: 22-14 Notable players definitely gone: Jeremiah Martin, Kyvon Davenport, Kareem Brewton, Raynere Thornton, Mike Parks, Antwann Jones Other expected departures: Victor Enoh Notable players expected to return: Tyler Harris, Isaiah Maurice, Alex Lomax Expected additions: James Wiseman, D.J. Jeffries, Malcolm Dandridge, Damion Baugh, Lance Thomas, Ryan Boyce, Trendon Watford, Lester Quinones | |
| 21 | |
| Coach: Mike Rhoades 2018-19 record: 25-8 Notable players definitely gone: Michael Gilmore Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Marcus Evans, Isaac Vann, Deriante Jenkins, Marcus Santos-Silva, Sean Mobley, Vince Williams, Mike'L Simms, P.J. Byrd, Malik Crowfield Expected additions: Jarren McAlister | |
| 22 | |
| Coach: Rick Barnes 2018-19 record: 31-6 Notable players definitely gone: Admiral Schofield, Kyle Alexander Other expected departures: Grant Williams, Jordan Bone Notable players expected to return: Lamonte Turner, Jordan Bowden, John Fulkerson, Yves Pons, Jalen Johnson, Derrick Walker Expected additions: Josiah-Jordan James, Drew Pember, Davonte Gaines | |
| 23 | |
| Coach: Chris Beard 2018-19 record: 31-7 Notable players definitely gone: Matt Mooney, Tariq Owens, Brandone Francis, Norense Odiase Other expected departures: Jarrett Culver Notable players expected to return: Davide Moretti, Kyler Edwards, Deshawn Corprew, Khavon Moore, Andrei Savrasov Expected additions: Jahmius Ramsey, Kevin McCullar, Russel Tchewa, Terrence Shannon | |
| 24 | |
| Coach: Scott Drew 2018-19 record: 20-14 Notable players definitely gone: Makai Mason, King McClure Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Devonte Bandoo, Jared Butler, Tristan Clark, Freddie Gillespie, Mario Kegler, Matthew Mayer, Flo Thamba, Mark Vital Expected additions: Davion Mitchell, Macio Teague, Jordan Turner | |
| 25 | |
| Coach: Greg McDermott 2018-19 record: 20-15 Notable players definitely gone: Kaleb Joseph, Connor Cashaw, Samson Froling Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Martin Krampelj, Ty-Shon Alexander, Mitch Ballock, Marcus Zegarowski, Davion Mintz, Damien Jefferson, Christian Bishop Expected additions: Tristan Enaruna, Sedrick Hammonds | |
| 26 | |
| Coach: Chris Holtmann 2018-19 record: 20-15 Notable players definitely gone: CJ Jackson, Keyshawn Woods Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Kaleb Wesson, Andre Wesson, Luther Muhammad, Duane Washington, Kyle Young, Justin Aherns, Musa Jallow, Jaedon LeDee Expected additions: DJ Carton, Alonzo Gaffney, EJ Liddel, Ibrahima Diallo, CJ Walker | |
Top 25 And 1 analysis
Biggest Movers
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| Rk | Teams | Chg | Rcrd |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | -- | 10-2 | |
This ranking is obviously reliant on Cassius Winston, a CBS Sports First Team All-American, returning. If he does, Michigan State should bring back the top four scorers from a 32-win team that won the Big Ten regular-season title, the Big Ten Tournament title and advanced to the Final Four.
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| 2 | -- | 7-5 | |
The Cavaliers will, at worst, return three starters from a team that won the national championship. So going back-to-back, like Florida once did under Billy Donovan, is a realistic goal.
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| 3 | -- | 10-2 | |
Duke got huge news when Tre Jones, surprisingly, announced he's returning to college for his sophomore season. That development will allow Boogie Ellis to mostly play off the ball and make shots like the elite shotmaker he projects to be at the Division I level.
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| 4 | -- | 10-2 | |
Ashton Hagans announcing he'll return to Kentucky for his sophomore season qualified as a big development for the Wildcats. He'll be a key piece on what should be the SEC's best team.
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| 5 | -- | 9-3 | |
Michigan could've, in theory, returned its entire roster - but Charles Matthews and Ignas Brazdeikis are both entering (and almost certainly staying in) the NBA Draft. Regardless, John Beilein will have enough back from a 30-win team to maybe win 30 games again.
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| 6 | -- | 7-5 | |
Jordan Nwora has declared for the NBA Draft but left open the option of returning to Louisville. If he does, he'll be the leading returning scorer for a program set to enroll a top-10 recruiting class - not to mention graduate transfer Lamarr Kimble, who averaged 15.6 points per game at Saint Joseph's this season.
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| 7 | -- | 11-2 | |
The Golden Eagles are expected to return the top seven scorers from a 24-win team. But, it should be noted, Marquette closed this season by losing six of its last seven games.
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| 8 | -- | 10-2 | |
The expected loss of Bruno Fernando should mostly be offset by the return of Jalen Smith. The Terrapins will be talented and experienced and a real threat to Michigan State and Michigan at the top of the Big Ten.
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| 9 | -- | 7-5 | |
The loss of Coby White after one season stings a little considering he didn't project as a one-and-done prospect coming out of high school. But Cole Anthony, if he enrolls as expected, should fill any hole North Carolina might otherwise have at point guard.
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| 10 | -- | 9-2 | |
The Jayhawks aren't enrolling the type of recruiting class they typically enroll. But Kansas is returning enough to enter the season as the Big 12 favorite.
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| 11 | -- | 9-3 | |
The Zags still need to find a point guard via the transfer market. But, one way or another, Mark Few, thanks in part to a top-five recruiting class, will keep the Zags on the national radar.
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| 12 | -- | 5-8 | |
Kevin Willard spoke with Virginia Tech about its opening but ultimately remained at Seton Hall. He has a roster good enough to take the Pirates to the NCAA Tournament for the fifth straight year.
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| 13 | -- | 8-5 | |
In a bit of a twist, Villanova will not be the favorite to win the Big East. But the Wildcats, thanks to a top-five recruiting class, should still operate near the top of the sport.
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| 14 | 1 | 11-1 | |
Jared Harper's decision to withdraw from school and enter the NBA Draft means Auburn is losing its top two scorers from a Final Four team. Bryce Brown, whose eligibility is exhausted, combined with Harper this season to average 31.2 points and 7.7 assists that must now be replaced.
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| 15 | 1 | 11-1 | |
Louis King's decision to enter and remain in the NBA Draft was a blow to Oregon. But four of the top six scorers are still expected back -- and they'll pair with a top-15 recruiting class that should make the Ducks the Pac-12 favorites.
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| 16 | -- | 6-5 | |
Sean Miller, even with the cloud of another federal trial hanging over the program, has secured the nation's top-ranked recruiting class. Arizona will not miss the NCAA Tournament two straight years.
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| 17 | -- | 9-3 | |
Tyler Cook is determined to remain in the NBA Draft, which isn't ideal for Iowa. But the Hawkeyes are still returning four of their top-five scorers - most notably Luka Garza.
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| 18 | -- | 8-3 | |
Houston reaching a deal on a contract extension for Kelvin Sampson was a massive development for the AAC program. The Cougars will be capable of winning back-to-back league titles.
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| 19 | -- | 8-4 | |
The loss of Carsen Edwards is obviously a big deal. But Matt Painter has proven capable of running a competent program even when he loses key pieces.
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| 20 | -- | 9-3 | |
Penny Hardaway's top-10 recruiting class, highlighted by five-star big James Wiseman, should have Memphis back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2014. Tyler Harris and Alex Lomax will provide adequate experience in the backcourt.
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| 21 | -- | 10-3 | |
Every relevant piece from a VCU team that won the Atlantic 10 by two games should be back. That includes four players who averaged double-digits in points this season.
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| 22 | -- | 12-0 | |
If Grant Williams and/or Jordan Bone return, Tennessee will be significantly higher in the Top 25 And 1. But if they both remain in the NBA Draft, as expected, the Vols will have to replace the top three scorers from a team that lost in the Sweet 16.
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| 23 | -- | 9-2 | |
The Red Raiders are expected to lose four of their top five scorers - most notably Jarrett Culver early to the NBA Draft. But, remember, they lost five of their top seven scorers from last season's team, and that didn't stop Chris Beard from getting Texas Tech to this season's national title game.
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| 24 | -- | 7-3 | |
The Bears are losing Makai Mason and King McClure. But they'll get Tristan Clark back and likely make the NCAA Tournament for the sixth time in a seven-year span.
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| 25 | -- | 8-5 | |
The Bluejays are returning all five starters from a team that closed the season by winning seven of their final nine games. That should be enough to help Creighton advance in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2014.
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| 26 | -- | 8-4 | |
Five of the top seven scorers from a team that spent part of last season ranked are expected back - including Kaleb Wesson, who averaged 14.6 points and 6.9 rebounds as a sophomore. Those returnees, combined with a top-15 recruiting class, should have Chris Holtmann in the NCAA Tournament for the sixth straight year.
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