2026 NCAA Tournament odds: Michigan remains the clear favorite; Houston, Florida have best value

The 2025 college football season came to a close earlier this week when Indiana defeated Miami in the College Football Playoff National Championship. With football season over, it's time to turn the page toward crowning a college basketball champion. 

In just over 10 weeks, there will be one time left standing in Indianapolis as the men's basketball national champion. Florida will head into the tournament as the reigning champion after going on an incredible run last spring. However, there will be new challengers and familiar logos that have the best chance to claim the title and cut down the nets this time around.

Trotter's Trends: How Duke's adjustments have it playing with confidence; building the All-Bench All-Stars

Isaac Trotter

With the Big Dance just over two months away, Michigan is the current favorite to win the national title at +440. The Wolverines advanced to the Sweet 16 in Year 1 of the Dusty May era and are in the mix to win the program's first national title since 1989. 

Arizona (5/1) has been ranked No. 1 for nearly half the season in the AP Top 25 poll and has the second-shortest odds to win the title. Houston (11/1), Duke (11/1) and UConn (12/1) round out the top five.

Here is a look at some of the best value picks and long shots to win the NCAA Tournament.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Top values

Houston Cougars 

Current odds: 11-1

After coming up one possession short of Kelvin Sampson winning his first national title as a coach, the Cougars are back with a roster capable of being the final team standing in April. Since losing to Tennessee in the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas, Houston has won 11 consecutive games. Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan are veteran presences, Joseph Tugler is arguably the best defender in the sport, and the play from freshman Kingston Flemings stacks up with the best in his respective class. Houston is only going to get better as the season goes on. The Cougars have what it takes to cut down the nets this time around. My pick (if the tournament were today) would be Houston to win the title.

Florida Gators

• Current odds: 14-1

Don't count out the Gators, yet. Florida is a team I had a chance to watch up close during its run to the title. What impressed me the most was how Florida was able to wear down teams with its frontcourt play. Sure, Florida might not have a closer like Walter Clayton Jr. this time around, but Todd Golden's team is going to be a dangerous out in the tournament. The reason for optimism for Florida is how Xaivian Lee has played as of late. He dropped 20 points in a win over Vanderbilt on the road last weekend. Thomas Haugh is an All-American candidate and Rueben Chinyelu is one of the most underrated players in the sport. Florida has the talent and DNA to repeat as champions.

BYU Cougars

• Current odds: 25-1

One of the main reasons I'm optimistic about BYU's chances is that there are not many teams in the sport that have a better "Big Three." That, of course, would be AJ Dybantsa, Richie Saunders and Robert Wright III. Dybantsa is someone in contention to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft and the way he has played the last two months has also put him in the thick of the National Player of the Year race. BYU is coming off its first loss in nearly two months against Texas Tech, but this is a team capable of figuring it out when it matters. BYU has never been to the Final Four. This might be the Cougars' best shot to do just that.

Long shots to consider

Kentucky Wildcats

Current odds: 80-1

In our CBS Sports preseason Final Four predictions, I had Kentucky facing Florida for the national title. Although it's still a long shot, if Kentucky can actually make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, there is still a chance. Kentucky has won three consecutive games -- including a dramatic win on the road over Tennessee -- just days after beating LSU on a last-second shot. Jaland Lowe is out for the season, which means SEC Preseason Player of the Year Otega Oweh will need to step up. Arizona State transfer Jayden Quaintance has played in just four games, but when healthy, he is one of the best defenders in the sport. This season has been far from pretty through the first three months, but Kentucky still has time to turn it around. It's worth considering as a long shot.

Louisville Cardinals 

• Current odds: 65-1

After being one of the best stories in college basketball during Year 1 of the Pat Kelsey era, this season has been a mixed bag for Louisville. The Cardinals started 11-2 but have since lost three of their last five games to drop to 3-3 in ACC play. Louisville is 3-5 against Quad 1 opponents and has seven matchups against those teams during the remainder of the regular season. What will make-or-break Louisville's tournament hopes is star freshman Mikel Brown Jr., who hasn't played in over a month due to injury. When Brown was healthy, he was playing like one of the best point guards in the sport. For what it's worth, Louisville opened the 2025-26 season with the third-shortest odds (behind Duke and Houston) to win the title.

Kansas Jayhawks

• Current odds: 40-1

Kansas will have a chance to win the title for one main reason: Darryn Peterson. When he is healthy, Peterson is an elite scorer and arguably the best player in the sport. However, a hamstring injury/cramping has limited Peterson to just 10 games. In six of those games, Peterson logged under 30 minutes. Is Kansas going to win the title this year? Probably not. However, if Peterson is on the floor and healthy, Kansas will have the best player, regardless of the opponent. Guards can single-handedly win games in March. Kansas can only hope that Peterson can do just that.

College basketball rankings: Kansas freshman Darryn Peterson showing why he could be No. 1 NBA Draft pick

Gary Parrish

2026 NCAA Tournament championship odds

Odds to win the 2026 NCAA Tournament via FanDuel Sportsbook