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It takes just six days to narrow the field of 68 down to 16 teams, and after that whirlwind of wall-to-wall basketball, we get to spend some time hitting reset on the NCAA Tournament picture. When the Sweet 16 tips off on Thursday and Friday with eight regional semifinal matchups across the two nights, it truly is the beginning of a tournament within the chaos that is March Madness.
One exercise we enjoy this time of year is taking stock of the remaining teams with a re-ranking of the Sweet 16. It's not a true re-seeding exercise with focus on Quad 1 wins or references to the NET rankings or Wins Above Bubble, but we have noted each team's original NCAA Tournament selection committee ranking as a reference point. Our re-seeding is much more along the power rankings variety, reacting to what we saw in the opening rounds as a way to challenge the pre-tournament ratings and expectations.
Don't believe the obituaries: This year's chalky first weekend didn't kill March Madness' beloved Cinderella
David Cobb
It should not come as a huge surprise, then, that after an opening weekend where one of the biggest storylines was the dominance of top teams that we see a pretty chalky re-ranking of the teams remaining. Our top seven teams are the same top seven teams the selection committee has in their ranking for the initial bracket, though we do have some notable shifts among the No. 1 seeds inside the top four. After that we've got some changes in the pecking order, reacting to notable results and readjusting the pecking order for teams that mostly fall between the No. 3 and No. 6 seed in the bracket.
Let's dive in, beginning with a new No. 1 overall team in the field.
Reseeding the Sweet 16
| 1 |  |
| Other No. 1 seeds found themselves in uncomfortable positions at times in the tournament's opening weekend; the Blue Devils not only cruised to a pair of 20-plus point wins, but did so while getting Cooper Flagg back from injury. Flagg looks outstanding -- the result of a season's worth of experience and a little pre-March Madness time off -- and Duke looked every bit the part of title favorite. Having Tyrese Proctor go 13 for 16 from three is a mere luxury for this talent-laden crew that is locked in on both ends of the floor. NCAA committee ranking: No. 2 | |
| 2 |  |
| When the season hung in the balance and the money was on the table, All-American guard Walter Clayton stepped up with huge shots to spark a late run and take control of the game against UConn. And while the Gators might have had the closest call in terms of margin, the value of that win against the back-to-back champs gives a boost to the profile that's worth holding down the No. 2 spot. NCAA committee ranking: No. 4 | |
| 3 |  |
| The Cougars put SIU-Edwardsville in the kind of game that makes you cry "uncle," holding the No. 16 seed to just 40 points on 30.6% percent shooting. Gonzaga was harder to put away; a late run cut a double-digit lead to just one possession, but the Cougars ultimately won by five. Houston hasn't lost a game in regulation since No. 9, and it should be weathered enough to take on three quality foes in the Midwest Regional in Indianapolis this weekend. NCAA committee ranking: No. 3 | |
| 4 |  |
| When Auburn had a 32-31 lead against No. 16 seed Alabama State just before halftime on Thursday afternoon, the college basketball world did a quick double-take. Of course, the Tigers not only flipped the switch after halftime in that game and won by 20, but followed that up with another strong second half in a 12-point win against Creighton. This is two slow starts after starting the tournament having lost three of four, which is cause for mild concern. The good news is an Atlanta-hosted regional should give Auburn fans plenty of opportunity to turn that place into "The Jungle" and inspire better starts. NCAA committee ranking: No. 1 | |
| 5 |  |
| Tough-as-nails defense defined Tennessee's opening weekend. Neither Wofford nor UCLA, two teams of different style and quality, scored more than 62. The Bruins even had some success early limiting Tennessee's offense, but they never stood a chance once Chaz Lanier and the Vols' perimeter players started hitting 3s. No big adjustment in how Tennessee is viewed or ranked. A top-five team delivered a pair of top-five performances. NCAA committee ranking: No. 5 | |
| 6 |  |
| We saw two pretty different performances from the Crimson Tide, first a five-alarm upset alert against No. 15 seed Robert Morris, and then a fairly comfortable win against a much higher-rated opponent in Saint Mary's. Alabama's defense and presence inside played a big role in the better of the two, which is encouraging because Alabama did not get much out of the 3 (both in terms of rate and percentage) in either w NCAA committee ranking: No. 6 | |
| 7 |  |
| New Mexico brought a great challenge to Michigan State. The Spartans answered the call, and from a big-picture confidence perspective a lot will be gained by the way they closed their second round win against the Lobos. it's tough to say in total that we saw the best of Michigan State (that form would probably be the seven-game winning streak to close the regular season), but there wasn't anything worth shaking up their rating heading into the Sweet 16. NCAA committee ranking: No. 7 | |
| 8 |  |
| Derik Queen gave us the best highlight of the opening weekend on the last day of the second round. His buzzer-beater sends Maryland to San Francisco with some real pop as a team to watch in the West Regional. A boost in the Terps' stock comes after throttling Grand Canyon and closing strong against Colorado State, and brings them more in line with their predictive metrics ranking. NCAA committee ranking: No. 15 | |
| 9 |  |
| JT Toppin's excellence demands appreciation, and if the accolades haven't brought enough attention, I hope Texas Tech's performance in the second weekend will shine a light on one of the game's biggest stars right now. Toppin averaged 18.5 points and 11.5 rebounds in the two wins against UNCW and Drake. That alone hasn't done much to change the Red Raiders' standing, but the outlook has been impacted by St. John's getting bounced before the Sweet 16. NCAA committee ranking: No. 9 | |
| 10 |  |
| This is another team that we're putting on a rocket ship after two strong performances in the opening weekend. The Wildcats beat Akron by 28 points then endured the many wild swings of a late-night thriller against former Pac-12 foe Oregon. Arizona has the best tournament 3-point percentage (48.9%) of any team in the Sweet 16, and it flexed some big-time defensive muscles in the first round win against the Zips. NCAA committee ranking: No. 16 | |
| 11 |  |
| The Wildcats are picking the right time play some inspired basketball, riding the one-two punch of Otega Oweh and Koby Brea in a pair of solid wins against Troy and Illinois. The Wildcats were often downgraded for their defensive shortcomings during the season, but they seem to have brought the fight on that end of the floor here in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats have a better win compared to some teams higher in the rankings, but they feel closer to where they started. They are the correct underdog to Tennessee and Houston in their own region. NCAA committee ranking: No. 11 | |
| 12 |  |
| Still white-hot after closing the regular season with eight straight wins, BYU threw the kind of haymakers at VCU and Wisconsin that have made it among the most highly-rated offensive teams in the country. Now, all 91 points against the Badgers were needed because of some shaky defense, but if the Cougars can trade paint with another offensive juggernaut and get just enough stops to win, they can challenge any team in the East Regional. NCAA committee ranking: No. 21 | |
| 13 |  |
| The Wolverines nearly handed their tournament future away in the first round against UC San Diego, only to take control of the contest two days later against Texas A&M. There wasn't a lot of consistency half-to-half or game-to-game, but the Wolverines delivered winning plays in both games. Roddy Gayle had not scored in double figures in consecutive games since late January but was the spark to the Wolverines turnaround agains the Aggies. He's totaled 37 points across Michigan's two wins. NCAA committee ranking: No. 17 | |
| 14 |  |
| While most of the teams made it through to the second weekend with at least one tough challenge, either in terms of quality of opponent or the way a game played out, Purdue plowed through High Point and McNeese en route to the eighth Sweet 16 of the Matt Painter era. The performances were impressive, especially with Trey Kaufman-Renn averaging 21.5 points and 12.5 rebounds across the two wins, but there wasn't a result that's going to shake up their standing in the rankings. NCAA committee ranking: No. 14 | |
| 15 |  |
| Ole Miss had one of the most impressive two-game samples of any NCAA Tournament team, beating North Carolina and Iowa State on their way to Sweet 16. The Rebels had the third-best 3-point percentage (48.7%) in the tournament's opening weekend, including an 11-for-19 scorcher against the Cyclones. We will see whether that hot shooting is sustainable as the Rebels take a step up in competition, squaring off with Michigan State in the South Regional semifinal. NCAA committee ranking: No. 24 | |
| 16 |  |
| If this was based strictly on how much things have changed for the better since the start February, then Arkansas has an argument for No. 1. The Razorbacks went from possibly out of the tournament to on the bubble to the Sweet 16 behind a couple of vibe-shifting wins, the most recent of which was bouncing Rick Pitino and No. 2 seed St. John's from the NCAA Tournament. But stacked up against the rest of the group -- all single-digit seeds in the tournament who also rank inside the top 25 in the predictive metrics -- the Razorbacks round up the group. NCAA committee ranking: No. 37 | |
