Don't look now, but we're less than 10 weeks away from a crisp bracket. Oh, what a glorious day that will be. Of course, you'll be hammered with numerous trends to pare down who will win the national championship.
There is no magic formula to predict a champion. The game has changed way too much. College basketball is on pace for its most efficient offensive season ever. More 3-pointers are being taken. Defense is always important, but the teams who can't score may be left out in the cold during March Madness.
For transparency's sake, here is what the preseason national championship tiers looked like in late October before the season started. A lot of the same preseason teams made the first tier in the midseason rendition like Auburn, Duke, Iowa State and Alabama. But there were some misses, namely Baylor, who is now 9-4, North Carolina, who has struggled with a poorly-built roster, and Wake Forest, who is undergoing some serious shooting concerns.
Two months of games can help paint a vastly different picture. Let's dive into the midseason national title contender tiers, starting at the top:
Tier 1: No-brainers
Houston
The scoop: Three nip-and-tuck losses haven't changed the outlook on this Houston club at all. Houston is still an absolute freight train, capable of balling up a rock-solid club like BYU and throwing it into the slammer. Houston's defense is a fortress. It allows no freebies in transition, rips the ball away and can flip-flop two elite rim protectors in Ja'Vier Francis and JoJo Tugler.
Houston still takes far too many non-rim twos (more than any high-major and fifth-most nationally), but those shot-diet concerns are slightly mitigated by elite offensive rebounding and the fact that LJ Cryer, Milos Uzan, Emanuel Sharp and Terrance Arceneaux are all shooting over 37% from downtown.
Iowa State
The scoop: Iowa State is all the way legit. The Cyclones have transformed from a solid offense into one of the best in the country thanks to a vast improvement in two areas: layups and transition. Last year's team couldn't score in transition and struggled to make layups. This year's iteration of Iowa State basketball is shooting a much-improved 60% on layups due to the additions of skilled bigs like Dishon Jackson, Joshua Jefferson and Brandton Chatfield. Iowa State is averaging 21.5 transition points which ranks No. 13 nationally. Keshon Gilbert is a one-man fastbreak and Curtis Jones is an utter deadeye that you better find in the open floor. Gilbert and Jones are extra examples of how special that Year 2 transfer jump can be.
Kentucky
The scoop: If you're going to pick a side of the ball, offense is the way to go in this new era of college basketball. Kentucky strikes all the right notes offensively. Its layered dribble-handoff actions are ridiculously hard to navigate. Big men like Andrew Carr, Amari Williams and Brandon Garrison can all pass and post up. That's invaluable. Kentucky also has enough depth that it can lean on Koby Brea to win a game against Florida. And it has Lamont Butler who can win a game against Louisville. And it has Jaxson Robinson who can win a game against Gonzaga. And it has Otega Oweh who can win a game against Duke.
Kentucky has to make strides on the defensive end, but Mark Pope's adjustments have been on point and the 'Cats have guys who can guard. Butler, Oweh and Williams all are talented individual defenders at three different levels. Kentucky has the pieces to be better defensively. Its title hopes rest on Pope's ability to press the right buttons defensively because this offense looks almost unstoppable. If Selection Sunday rolls around and Kentucky is still hovering near the triple digits in defensive efficiency, it will not be in Tier 1.
Florida
The scoop: Two elite guards and a stable of high-level role players can take you really, really far in March. Florida has that. Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin form a dangerous two-headed monster, and everyone else has settled nicely into complementary roles. Florida is one of the most potent transition offenses in the sport, and it's outstanding at generating second-chance opportunities on the glass. That's winning the math. But there are still some areas to clean up. On paper, the Gators' interior defense looks elite (opponents are shooting just 50% at the rim), but North Carolina and Kentucky cracked 40+ points at the rim. That can't continue if Florida wants to win six in a row in the Big Dance.
Illinois
The scoop: New-look teams are supposed to need time, but Illinois looks vastly ahead of schedule because its backcourt is one of the nation's best. Kasparas Jakucionis is a stepback-draining superstar who is ticketed for the lottery. Kylan Boswell has remade his body and his game after transferring to Illinois. Boswell and Jakucionis have become outstanding perimeter defenders for an Illini defense that has far more bite than initially expected.
Every opposing coach seems to rave about how hard it is to guard Illinois. Jakucionis is instrumental in fueling a pick-and-roll offense that rates in the 97th percentile nationally, and the Illini have hordes of shooting to go along with skilled size and a commitment up and down the roster to embrace the dirty work. Will Riley and Morez Johnson are two of the best recruits Illinois' program has ever landed. They're coming off the bench. Tre White was a former ballyhooed recruit. He's the fourth option most of the time. That speaks to the talent level that Brad Underwood has accrued.
The best version of this Illinois team is a fire-breathing dragon capable of beating anybody.
Duke
The scoop: Somehow, Cooper Flagg is even better than advertised. The Duke freshman is having an all-time season, and he'd be the runaway National Player of the Year if Auburn's Johni Broome wasn't also having a generational season. Oh, and now Flagg's 3-ball is starting to fall (7-for-14 in the last four games) which makes him even more unguardable.
Duke has everything it needs from a personnel standpoint to be an elite unit on both ends of the floor. Scoring at the rim is so hard against this group. When Duke's defense is turning stops into transition buckets, the Blue Devils feel unbeatable. It's unlikely, but Duke could make a legitimate run at a perfect record in an ACC that doesn't have another National Championship contender.
Alabama
The scoop: Alabama has some real meat and potatoes in its profile. This group can batter teams on the offensive glass. Alabama ripped down 22 offensive rebounds in its 107-79 rout of Oklahoma on Saturday. There's a chance Alabama isn't an elite 3-point shooting team, but a good shot diet, excellent offensive rebounding and a low turnover rate can still lead you down the path to efficient offense. Plus, Alabama's pace, fueled by jet-quick ball-handlers like Aden Holloway, Mark Sears and Labaron Philon, generates open looks galore in transition.
Alabama is up to fourth nationally in offensive efficiency while shooting just 31% from downtown. That's pretty impressive. If Alabama makes treys, it's winning that game. Point blank. We'll see how the defense continues to coalesce. Alabama's size and athleticism have buffed up the interior defense, but small guards might limit just how elite that unit can be. Alabama has not looked quite as dominant as some of the other teams at the top of the pecking order, namely Auburn, but it's not far away, either.
Auburn
The scoop: The Tigers are the best offense in the land by a country mile. Auburn has mixed elite paint dominance with an outstanding brigade of snipers and some hard-to-stop X's and O's. Johni Broome is at the center of all of it. The National Player of the Year frontrunner is a dominant interior scorer who can step out and shoot it and also pass the cover off the rock. The secondary playmaking might be the most underrated part of this Auburn attack. Having a big man like Broome and an off-ball wing like Chad Baker-Mazara operate as the top triggermen makes Auburn a tough cover. Auburn's offense can just hurt you in so many ways, and the length, size and power defensively tie everything together.
Auburn's game plans on a nightly basis have been exceptional. That might tip the scales in March.
Marquette
The scoop: Due to some serious concerns about the rim defense without Oso Ighodaro, Marquette was not included in the preseason National Championship tiers.
Kam Jones and Co. have made that look like an egregious error.
Marquette looks every bit the part of the Big East's best team because it's constantly winning the shot-volume game. Marquette rarely turns it over. Its defense is constantly generating takeaways. That strategy has helped Marquette average nearly nine shot attempts more than its opponent every night. Jones puts up video game-like numbers, the supporting cast is unselfish and dialed in, the rim defense hasn't been much of an issue and Marquette is a top-20 unit on both ends.
Who cares about the portal?
Gonzaga
The scoop: I'll gladly scoop up any Gonzaga stock that might be laying around. This offense is still phenomenal and the defense is quietly top-20 nationally. That's exactly the neighborhood where Mark Few wants to live. And yet, some late-game, 50-50 possessions have gone against Gonzaga, so the Zags sit outside the top-15 nationally in the meaningless AP Top 25.
There are still a ton of reasons to be bullish on the Zags' March outlook. Gonzaga's pick-and-roll offense is still deadly, and there's no drop-off when backup center Braden Huff subs into the game for Graham Ike. In fact, there are nights when Huff looks like the best big on the roster. No team has a better backup 5-man, and this eight-man rotation is a veteran-laden group that has little positional overlap with guys who fill their job description to a T. Gonzaga's interior defense might be the only real stumbling block. Top-100 teams are shooting over 64% at the rim against the Zags, but overall, this group does defend at a higher level than Few's previous couple of squads. Everything else is fixable and Gonzaga will keep self-scouting and improving in the coming weeks. It's only a matter of time until Gonzaga has a little better fortune in late-game situations.
Tennessee
The scoop: Rick Barnes believes this Tennessee defense has another gear it can get to. That's scary because this group –– that rates No. 1 in defensive efficiency –– is already squeezing the life out of every offense like a cobra. No high-major opponent has cracked 60 halfcourt points against this Tennessee defense that also gives up literally nothing in transition. Plus, what else is there to say about Chaz Lanier. The North Florida transfer is acing every single test. He's up to 47% from downtown on 8.5 attempts a night.
Tennessee's no-ego approach on offense has helped bring it all together. Guys like Jahmai Mashack and Zakai Zeigler will sacrifice shot attempts to feed Lanier even more looks. The level of personal sacrifice from numerous dudes up and down this roster is a big reason why Tennessee is undefeated and a Tier 1, National Championship contender.
Tier 2: On the doorstep
Kansas
The scoop: December was not kind to Bill Self's bunch but don't bury the Jayhawks prematurely. Self will continue tinkering to try and find solutions to the spacing problems that aren't going away. Maybe a healthy Shakeel Moore will help with that. Kansas could really use the lightswitch to flip on for Rylan Griffen who was brought to Lawrence to be a net-shredding, floor-stretcher.
In the meantime, Kansas may have to double down on defense. It will be matchup-dependent moving forward, but it's hard to ignore how nasty Kansas' rim defense can be when Flory Bidunga is on the floor. The explosive 6-foot-9 big man has moments where he blocks everything, and opponents are shooting just 40% at the rim against Kansas when Bidunga is in the game.
UCLA
The scoop: You cannot win a National Championship without a potent offense in this new era of college basketball. UCLA's offense is much improved but still has a ways to go. The good thing is Mick Cronin has built a roster that has so many various options. Junior point guard Dylan Andrews was terrific in the final two months of the season last year. UCLA needs that guy back to help out Tyler Bilodeau, Sebastian Mack, Eric Dailey, Kobe Johnson and Skyy Clark.
UCLA's defense is still one of the top units in the country, and it'll take your lunch every possession if you're not careful. But the Bruins probably cannot go on a serious March run without an improved halfcourt offense. Getting to the rim more would certainly help. UCLA has a low 25% rim rate in its halfcourt possessions. Playing jump-shot roulette can lead to some rough nights and an early exit in the NCAA Tournament.
Michigan
The scoop: Dusty May is copying Auburn's recipe surrounding two-way, rim dominance. Michigan has one of the best rim offenses and rim defenses in the game. Michigan continues to generate great shots on so many possessions using the Danny Wolf-Vlad Goldin pick-and-roll. Wolf is an unreal unicorn. The 7-footer is flirting with a triple-double almost every night.
UConn
The scoop: UConn, like Kentucky, has to play better defense if it wants to win the National Title for the third year in a row. Even in Sunday's dramatic, comeback win over Providence, UConn's point-of-attack defense was shredded by the Friars' guards. UConn does not have that elite defensive perimeter weapon like it had with Stephon Castle or Andre Jackson, but this offense is still good enough to go supernova and carry them for multiple games in March. Alex Karaban, Solo Ball and Liam McNeeley are three on-the-move, shot-makers that few teams have. This team has also made major strides since November. Imagine what it could look like in March.
Arizona
The scoop: The Wildcats dominated a good Cincinnati club on the road for close to 30 minutes in Saturday's 72-67 victory. Tommy Lloyd has been tinkering galore with his rotations, and he might have found something with Carter Bryant and Henri Veesaar at the 4 and 5, respectively, providing some much-needed floor-spacing to keep the paint open for drive-first point guard Jaden Bradley.
Arizona's recipe still revolves around defense, glass dominance and transition buckets, but there might be a light in the tunnel offensively for a group that looked like it was in a dire spot less than a month ago.
Mississippi State
The scoop: Chris Jans has built the most talented roster of his career. Mississippi State has numerous hoopers who can make tough shots. Josh Hubbard and Riley Kugel can make something out of nothing, and they're surrounded by key role players like Cameron Matthews, Claudell Harris, RJ Melendez and KeShawn Murphy who have been balling.
Mississippi State is reliable, dependable and possesses a higher ceiling than many might realize.
Tier 3: Dark horses
Just the top five of these.
Texas Tech
The scoop: Grant McCasland has an offense that should be able to score on anybody. Texas Tech can post you up with Darrion Williams or JT Toppin. It can run pick-and-rolls to death with Elijah Hawkins or Christian Anderson pulling the strings for a rim-runner like Federiko Federiko. It has outstanding floor-spacers like Chance McMillian, Kevin Overton or Kerwin Walton.
Texas Tech is up to 10th nationally in offensive efficiency and owns a ridiculous +37 net rating when Toppin is on the floor. He's healthy now and that's a big deal. Texas Tech's defense has not been great but it might have been a touch unlucky from downtown. Top-100 opponents are shooting 40% from 3-point range. If that stabilizes, Texas Tech has the offense to run away and hide from a ton of teams.
Oregon
The scoop: The Ducks are an old, deep team that does a little bit of everything well. This team is so clearly a second-weekend-caliber club, but Oregon's ceiling changes if Jackson Shelstad is clearly the head honcho.
At times, the sophomore lead guard has looked a little hesitant while he tries to set the table for all of Oregon's newcomers. Sunday was a little different. He hunted his jumper in transition and finished with 23 points and five treys.
When Shelstad has his swagger, he forms a ridiculous 1-2 punch with stud center Nate Bittle.
Maryland
The scoop: The Terps have hit some turbulence but that was probably to be expected for a new-look group. Remember, six of the top-eight players in Maryland's rotation are newcomers. This projection is simply about talent. Maryland has a legit stud point guard in Ja'Kobi Gillespie. It can destroy teams inside with Derik Queen and Julian Reese. It has shooters like Rodney Rice and Selton Miguel who can take and make tough shots. It has former top recruits like Tafara Gapare and Deshawn Harris-Smith coming off the bench. Defensively, Kevin Willard's clubs usually get better with time. Tight road losses to Purdue, Washington and Oregon are frustrating but not overly worrisome. Maryland still creates lots more problems for its opponents than vice versa.
St. John's
The scoop: Shooting might be a question all year long with this group, but the physicality sure won't be. It just jumps off the tape with guys like RJ Luis and Zuby Ejiofor who will dump-truck anybody in their way, or a long athletic forward like Aaron Scott who will casually pester ball-handlers for all 94 feet. Oh, and add in Kadary Richmond who is one of the biggest lead guards in the country and is starting to look like himself after a bit of a slow start.
The defense has to carry the Johnnies and it will. St. John's could easily finish in the top-5 nationally in defensive efficiency. The personnel is just too physical. Just the way Rick Pitino likes it.
Purdue
The scoop: Braden Smith is the best initiator point guard in the country. When you have a dude like Smith, you have a chance. Matt Painter is armed with a Big Three like Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn, is going to win a ton of ballgames.
But the ceiling of this group might be slightly capped because of the interior defense and some rebounding concerns that have reared their ugly head routinely. Purdue's wisely pivoted to playing Caleb Furst next to Kaufman-Renn inside, but the loss of freshman center Daniel Jacobsen still looms large.
