SEC basketball 2026-27 preseason poll and predictions: Alabama, Georgia overrated; LSU, Missouri underrated

The 2026-27 college basketball season begins in less than a month, which means preseason predictions, polls and accolades are starting to trickle out before the season starts next month. On Monday, the SEC released its preseason poll ahead of the conference's media day this week, and, unsurprisingly, Florida was picked to win the conference.

The Gators will be the favorite to win the SEC and the national title this season. And when the preseason AP Top 25 poll is released next week, Florida is expected to occupy the top spot. Florida had an incredible offseason of retention after bringing back four starters (Thomas Haugh, Rueben Chinyelu, Boogie Fland and Alex Condon) from a team that earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament for the second consecutive season.

While Florida is the overwhelming favorite, other teams in the conference are expected to make noise. Among them is Texas, which was picked to finish No. 2 in the preseason SEC poll. The Longhorns reached the Sweet 16 in Sean Miller's first season with the program and are expected to open the season ranked somewhere inside the top 10 of the AP poll.

SEC expert picks: 2026-27 preview, projected order of finish, preseason predictions, top players to watch

David Cobb

Arkansas, Tennessee and Alabama rounded out the top five of the poll. LSU, which is led by Will Wade, was notably picked to finish No. 14 in the SEC. The Tigers have question marks surrounding their roster, with a handful of players currently in eligibility limbo.

Here is the full SEC media poll, followed by the breakdown of overrated and underrated teams and players.

SEC Preseason Media Poll

Overrated: Alabama

Predicted finish: 5

In our preseason predictions at CBS Sports, I ended up being the lowest on the Crimson Tide. Alabama was picked as high as fourth in the SEC and as low as eighth in our CBS predictions. Here is what we know about Alabama heading into the season: the Crimson Tide will be elite offensively. That was on display during Alabama's first scrimmage of the season, where Brandon Garrison received high praise from coach Nate Oats.

Why am I lower on Alabama? I simply like the teams in the SEC ranked slightly below them more. I think they have more talented rosters and the right fits. I picked Missouri (more on them shortly) and Kentucky to finish ahead of Alabama in the SEC preseason poll. In order for Alabama to finish at or above its preseason projection, Amari Allen will have to have a serious Year 2 breakout, which is very possible.

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Underated: Missouri

Predicted finish: 8

Based on where Missouri was picked to finish, my guess is Mark Mitchell's eligibility — which remains a question mark heading into the season — isn't being factored in. If Mitchell is cleared to play this season, Missouri is a top-five team in the SEC.

Getting Mitchell back, plus adding five-star guard Jason Crowe Jr. — who was the most prolific scorer in high school basketball — and adding Bryson Tiller and Jamier Jones makes this the most underrated team in the conference. Again, I ranked Missouri higher (picked them fifth) than all my colleagues. However, I'm factoring in and assuming Mitchell is cleared, which is a massive part of the projection.

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Overrated: Georgia

Predicted finish: 11

Most of my projections lined up perfectly with what the SEC put out. However, one difference (two spots) between my ballot and the actual poll was Georgia's finish. I had the Bulldogs finishing 13th in the SEC, ahead of only Oklahoma, Mississippi State and South Carolina.

The Bulldogs got embarrassed by Saint Louis in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Even with tournament expansion, I think Georgia will be one of last season's at-large teams to miss out on the Big Dance entirely, as I wrote last month. The Bulldogs lost leading scorer Jeremiah Wilkinson to Arkansas and big man Somto Cyril to Miami, which is why Georgia will finish in the double digits in the final SEC standings. 

Underated: LSU

Predicted finish: 14

Your guess is as good as mine when it comes to projecting which LSU players will be eligible and which will be on the outside looking in. However, the talent Wade has assembled can't be ignored, even if over half the roster has a real shot of not playing this season.

If you asked me which team projected near the bottom of the SEC will surprise this season, it would be an easy answer in favor of LSU. The key players who will need to be eligible are Skyy Clark, Donovan Dent and Saliou Niang. If RJ Luis Jr. is cleared — and at this point, it could be a long shot due to the SEC's stance of former professionals returning to college — he would project as LSU's best player. There are serious question marks surrounding the roster, but LSU's team is too talented for them to finish 14th in the SEC.

Preseason All-SEC Team 

The SEC released its preseason all-conference teams on Monday. Florida star Thomas Haugh was tabbed the SEC Preseason Player of the Year. Here is the full team.

First-Team

Second-Team

Third-Team

Underrated: Jordan Smith Jr., Arkansas

Last season, Darius Acuff Jr. produced one of the best one-and-done seasons by a guard in college basketball history and departed as arguably one of the best freshmen at the position John Calipari has ever coached. This season, Calipari is once again getting another stud freshman who should outperform his projection as a second-team All-SEC player. 

The 6-foot-2 combo guard can get downhill with ease and should be able to put up numbers. Smith should be the consensus favorite to win SEC Freshman of the Year.

Overrated: Malachi Moreno, Kentucky 

It's hard to single out any player on this list, but if I had to pick one, it would be Moreno, just because (outside of the lone freshman on this list), he is the most inexperienced returner. Moreno has a very high ceiling and should thrive in his second season playing in Mark Pope's system. 

However, if there was another player, I would've put on third-team All-SEC, it would be Crowe, who could legitimately finish as one of the leading scorers in the SEC, especially if Mitchell isn't cleared to play.