The 2024 ACC season will be a landmark one as membership balloons to 17 full-time football members with the offseason additions of California, Stanford and SMU. With only eight games on the conference schedule, every team will play exactly half of the ACC before we tally up the wins and losses to decide who gets to play for the ACC championship in early December.
That kind of schedule imbalance really comes to light when we start breaking down win totals. There are good teams who will win fewer games than you might imagine because of their draw. Conversely, teams that might be off the radar will wind up in ACC title contention late in the year. Strength of schedule becomes a big talking point nationally when it comes to College Football Playoff contention, but when it comes to finishing in the top two of a division-less conference, a favorable draw is beneficial. Projecting over or under an oddsmakers win total often starts with schedule analysis, and we've tried to do as much in the exercise below.
So let's get into it, offering not only an over or under for each win total but specifically calling the result of every single game on the ACC football schedule.
Boston College
Over/under 4.5 wins
Wins: Duquesne, Western Kentucky, at Virginia, Pitt
Losses: at Florida State, at Missouri, Michigan State, at Virginia Tech, Louisville, Syracuse, at SMU, North Carolina
Analysis: Bill O'Brien is taking over a Boston College team that does have a quality quarterback in Thomas Castellanos and plenty of returning experience from a group that won seven games in 2023, but the schedule is much more difficult. Nonconference opponents like UConn and Army have been traded for Missouri and Michigan State. Reaching a bowl game will require multiple upsets, and while O'Brien has respected coaching chops, I think it's a true reset year in Chestnut Hill. Under 4.5 (+120)
Cal
Over/Under 6.5 wins
Wins: UC Davis, San Diego State, at Pitt, Oregon State, at Wake Forest, Syracuse, Stanford
Losses: at Auburn, at Florida State, Miami, NC State, at SMU
Analysis: The range of possible outcomes seems to be from 6-6 to 8-4, so to see 6.5 offered at plus-money was a surprise after our initial tally. The Bears have a ton of experience throughout the roster, but it's the offense that could be special in 2024. Not only does running back Jaydn Ott return after a First Team All-Pac-12 showing last season, but the passing options have improved with the additions of Mikey Matthews (Utah) and Tobias Merriweather (Notre Dame). It helps that two of the toss-up games on the schedule (NC State and Syracuse) involve an opponent flying across the country, but Cal will face its own travel demands that we'll be monitoring on a week-to-week basis. Over 6.5 (+142)
Clemson
Over/Under 9.5 wins
Wins: Appalachian State, NC State, Stanford, at Wake Forest, Virginia, Louisville, at Virginia Tech, at Pitt, The Citadel, South Carolina
Losses: Georgia, at Florida State
Analysis: A decade of 10-win seasons coming to an end in 2023 dominated the headlines, but what might be overlooked is that Clemson was a handful of plays away from finishing 11-1 against that same schedule. Two overtime defeats and a one-score loss to NC State flip a review of 2023 into realizing it won't take much for a bounce back to the program's modern standard. However, it's important to note the way the Tigers respond to the season-opener against Georgia, win or lose, will be crucial because the biggest ACC games come early with NC State on Sept. 21 and Florida State on Oct. 5. Over 9.5 (+138)
Duke
Over/Under 5.5 wins
Wins: Elon, at Northwestern, UConn, at Middle Tennessee
Losses: North Carolina, at Georgia Tech, Florida State, SMU, at Miami, at NC State, Virginia Tech, at Wake Forest
Analysis: This is the ideal nonconference schedule for a new coach taking over a team that's turned over a ton of its talent. Four winnable games, all at the start of the year, should help provide some confidence for the future in Durham. The issue is that Duke has one of the toughest conference schedules in the ACC and the fewest likely spots to pick up a win as Georgia Tech and Wake Forest are both on the road. I've got my eye on the Manny Diaz revenge game at Miami -- the week after Miami plays Florida State, by the way -- but for now I see something closer to a "Year 1" record. Under 5.5 (-148)
Florida State
Over/Under 9.5 wins
Wins: Georgia Tech, Boston College, Memphis, Cal, at SMU, Clemson, at Duke, North Carolina, Charleston Southern, Florida
Losses: at Miami, at Notre Dame
Analysis: The Seminoles don't get much of a break when it comes to their schedule, but Mike Norvell has done a great job of reinforcing depth throughout the roster with the transfer portal. So even though the Seminoles lost 10 players to the 2024 NFL Draft, a quick scan of the depth chart still shows an ACC title contender. Florida State will have one of the best pass-rushing tandems in the ACC with Patrick Payton and Marvin Jones Jr., as well as a collection of skill position talent that should set up QB DJ Uiagalelei for success in his return to the ACC. Over 9.5 (-105)
Georgia Tech
Over/Under 5.5 wins
Wins: Georgia State, at Syracuse, VMI, Duke, at North Carolina
Losses: Florida State, at Louisville, Notre Dame, at Virginia Tech, Miami, NC State, at Georgia
Analysis: Coach Brent Key deserves a ton of credit for the way the Yellow Jackets battled last season, finishing as one of just five teams in the ACC with a winning record in conference play (5-3). And since there are a ton of pieces back for 2024 (especially on offense), the notion should be that that Georgia Tech is poised for yet another step forward. But to actually return to the postseason will require success in more than half of Georgia Tech's toss-up games, some of which are on the road. Under 5.5 wins (-180)
Louisville
Over/Under 8.5 wins
Wins: Austin Peay, Jacksonville State, Georgia Tech, at Virginia, Miami, at Boston College, at Stanford, Pitt, at Kentucky
Losses: at Notre Dame, SMU, at Clemson
Analysis: Like Mike Norvell, Jeff Brohm has used the transfer portal as a way to keep the roster stocked with experience as he lays the foundation for his version of Louisville football. The talent arrives from Alabama, Yale and about everywhere in between, but they all (so far) have bought in to what the Cardinals are trying to accomplish. Look no further than last year's 10-win season as proof that the method works, though another large batch of newcomers does challenge Brohm and his staff to make the magic happen again. Over 8.5 wins (+102)
Miami
Over/Under 9.5 wins
Wins: Florida A&M, Ball State, at USF, at Cal, Florida State, Duke, at Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, at Syracuse
Losses: at Florida, Virginia Tech, at Louisville
Analysis: Quarterback Cam Ward is far from the only star that Mario Cristobal added during the offseason, though he does seem to be the missing piece for a group that already played really well along the lines of scrimmage. In terms of talent, Miami has one of the best rosters in the ACC, but failing to deliver results that match the talent has been a trend for much the Hurricanes' ACC tenure since 2004. Projecting a 6-2 record in ACC play is more comfortable than correctly identifying the wins and losses -- Cristobal's Chaotic Canes are capable of blowing a lead to Georgia Tech and beating Clemson in 2OT in a 14-day span -- so if you think this goes over, then it starts with winning the opener against the Gators. Under 9.5 wins (-170)
North Carolina
Over/Under 7.5 wins
Wins: Charlotte, NC Central, JMU, at Duke, Pitt, at Virginia, Wake Forest, at Boston College
Losses: at Minnesota, Georgia Tech, at Florida State, NC State
Analysis: After the loss of QB Drake Maye and several other top contributors from the group that tallied 17 wins over the last two years, there is an assumed step back heading into 2024. But while the preseason buzz has calmed significantly, the end results could be the same. North Carolina has one of the more manageable conference schedules and a nonconference slate that appears to set up for a 3-1 showing out of the league. There are big-picture questions, like sorting out the quarterback position and Geoff Collins' efforts to improve the defense, but on a game-to-game basis there are not many spots where North Carolina will be a sizable underdog. Over 7.5 wins (-115)
NC State
Over/Under 8.5 wins
Wins: Western Carolina, Louisiana Tech, Northern Illinois, Wake Forest, Syracuse, at Cal, Stanford, Duke, at Georgia Tech, at North Carolina
Losses: Tennessee, at Clemson
Analysis: It's a bit unsettling to be so far over the oddsmakers number, but when you run the math, the high-floor of Dave Doeren's program and quality offseason roster work make the elusive 10-win mark seem more attainable. The Wolfpack avoid Florida State, Miami, SMU and Virginia Tech and should have three wins in nonconference play even without an upset of Tennessee. Over 8.5 wins (-134)
Pitt
Over/Under 5.5 wins
Wins: Kent State, at Cincinnati, Youngstown State, Syracuse, Virginia
Losses: West Virginia, at North Carolina, Cal, at SMU, Clemson, at Louisville, at Boston College
Analysis: The big question for Pitt will be whether another change at offensive coordinator can spark more success. With this schedule, the Panthers will need to score more than the 20.2 points per game (No. 116 in FBS) they averaged in 2023. The defense should be strong, especially up front, but it might be another year to make it back to the postseason. Under 5.5 wins (-105)
SMU
Over/Under 7.5 wins
Wins: at Nevada, Houston Christian, BYU, at Louisville, at Stanford, at Duke, Pitt, Boston College, at Virginia, Cal
Losses: TCU, Florida State
Analysis: While much is being made of Oregon, Texas or Utah crash landing in a power conference and wining the title, SMU might be getting overlooked. Coach Rhett Lashlee returns tons of starters from an 11-win team and faces a conference slate that includes many of the teams projected to be near the bottom of the standings. SMU might not be on the Florida State-Clemson level in a vacuum, but the Mustangs could be on the big stage in December playing for a conference title with this schedule. Over 7.5 wins (-176)
Stanford
Over/Under 3.5 wins
Wins: Cal Poly, Wake Forest, at San Jose State,
Losses: TCU, at Syracuse, at Clemson, Virginia Tech, at Notre Dame, SMU, at NC State, Louisville, at Cal
Analysis: Stanford will start and finish its season with multiple consecutive weeks in the state of California, but in between is a brutal stretch of travel that must be considered when picking this win total. From Sept. 20 to Nov. 2, the Cardinal will pay seven in seven weeks, with four of them taking place in the Eastern Time Zone. Ping-ponging across the country is going to take a toll on a team that should be better than it was in Troy Taylor's first year but faces one of the toughest schedules in the ACC. Under 3.5 wins (+116)
Syracuse
Over/Under 7.5 wins
Wins: Ohio, Stanford, Holy Cross, at UNLV, at Boston College, UConn
Losses: Georgia Tech, at NC State, at Pitt, Virginia Tech, at Cal, Miami
Analysis: Not facing Florida State or Clemson is an extremely fortunate draw for Fran Brown in his first year as head coach at Syracuse. And with four projected wins in nonconference play, reaching a bowl game should absolutely be the expectation. The issue here is the slim margins that Syracuse faces in some of these toss-up games in conference play. That's where notes like Syracuse's 10-game losing streak in games at Pitt or flying to California in mid-November with no bye weeks come into play; they have me agreeing with the notion of a bowl team but falling short of going over. Under 7.5 wins (-138)
Virginia
Over/Under 4.5 wins
Wins: Richmond, at Coastal Carolina
Losses: at Wake Forest, Maryland, Boston College, Louisville, at Clemson, North Carolina, at Pitt, at Notre Dame, SMU, at Virginia Tech
Analysis: Tony Elliott needed one of those schedules with four pencil-them-in nonconference wins, and this is decidedly not that. Even our projected wins here include an opener against the FCS CAA champs from 2023 and a trip to face a pesky Coastal program in their house. The opportunities to flip this result start with winning tough road games at Wake Forest and Pitt, and then pulling off at least two upsets as a home underdog. Under 4.5 wins (-110)
Virginia Tech
Over/Under 8.5 wins
Wins: at Vanderbilt, Marshall, at ODU, at Miami, at Stanford, Boston College, Georgia Tech, at Syracuse, at Duke, Virginia
Losses: Rutgers, Clemson
Analysis: After three wins in Year 1 and seven in Year 2, both the oddsmakers and our projections are calling for another step forward for coach Brent Pry in Year 3 with the Hokies. It's not just the overwhelming amount of returning production from last season, but how that group performed during a stretch in which the Hokies closed the year with five in wins in their last seven games, with all five victories coming by at least 17 points. Things seemed to click in Blacksburg, and when you carry that over to a schedule that does not have Florida State, NC State or SMU, there is clear room for more upward movement within the league. Over 8.5 wins (+142)
Wake Forest
Over/Under 4.5 wins
Wins: North Carolina A&T, Virginia, Louisiana, at UConn, Duke
Losses: Ole Miss, at NC State, Clemson, at Stanford, Cal, at North Carolina, at Miami
Analysis: After a seven straight bowl seasons, Wake Forest stumbled in 2023 with a 4-8 record and just one win in ACC play. Some of the adjustment had to be expected given the roster turnover and injury issues, but with better injury luck I think there will be a return to something closer to the Dave Clawson program standard. A big piece of this is the quarterback position, which was a spot of consistency throughout that seven year run, and transfer Hank Bachmeier is being tasked with getting the offense back on track. If the former Boise State (and one-time Louisiana Tech) quarterback can tap into the best of what we've seen throughout his career in a return to form, a bowl game should be in the cards in Winston-Salem. Over 4.5 wins (-142)
