NC State v Notre Dame
Getty Images

The dust has hardly settled on the 2025 season for Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, but the search for his successor as the best player in college football is already on. Most of the stars who finished behind the Indiana star in this year's voting are off to the NFL, but returning finalist Julian Sayin will be back at Ohio State as a Heisman contender once again and a number of rising standouts will join him in the race for the sport's highest honor.

Among those up-and-comers is Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr, who generated buzz early in his first season as the starter and is the betting favorite to win the award in 2026, per FanDuel. Just behind Carr on the odds board is Texas' Arch Manning, who appears poised for a breakout campaign and has the name value to drive the Heisman conversation all season long.

Trends suggest that a quarterback will hoist the trophy and that numerous transfers will be in the mix. Only one of the last five winners, and two of the last 10, played at a position other than quarterback. Each of the last four winners transferred at some point in their careers.

Preseason favorites often fall short of delivering on expectations, while many recent winners were at one point considered longshots. Mendoza, for instance, was not at the top of mind for everyone before he led Indiana to the greatest heights in program history and emerged as a surefire No. 1 NFL Draft pick. Perhaps the next player to join him in the Heisman fraternity will be even more of a pleasant surprise.

Here are the 2026 Heisman Trophy odds at the beginning of the offseason and predictions for the top contenders.

2026 Heisman Trophy odds

Odds via FanDuel

Buy high: The Arch Manning hype is real this time around

Those who bought into Manning as a superstar quarterback heading into 2025 can claim that they were not wrong, just early. After a rough September, the former No. 1 overall recruit began to look more comfortable in the Texas offense and improved seemingly by the week. He closed the year on fire with 14 touchdowns to two interceptions over his final six games and looked like the dual-threat weapon most expected to see from the get go.

Manning fatigue will be real this offseason as doubters hesitate to buy back in. But the reality is that the Longhorns' quarterback is rounding into form, and now that he has a year of experience under his belt, he is primed to lead one of college football's most talented and capable offenses. His potential Heisman campaign will be worth the wait.

Sell high: CJ Carr lacks résumé-building opportunities

History tells us to fade the preseason betting favorite. In Carr's case, it is fair to question whether his status as the frontrunner holds much merit to begin with. He was stellar for much of his debut season atop the Notre Dame depth chart, but his success largely flew under the radar because the Fighting Irish played so few meaningful games in the second half of the season. That will be even more of a problem in 2026 when Carr faces, at most, two projected top-25 teams. Unless he dominates Miami and BYU, he will not have enough chances to wow Heisman voters on the big stage.

A bump in passing volume could help Carr overcome a weak schedule, though. With both Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price off to the NFL, the Fighting Irish lose a premier one-two punch at running back and could restructure their scheme to feature Carr's arm. They ranked No. 109 in pass attempts in 2025 and probably need to pass more often for Carr to rack up the yardage and touchdown numbers required to move the needle from a Heisman perspective.

Running it back: Dante Moore puts NFL on hold

More often than not, the Heisman is a veteran's award. Underclassmen have and will continue to win from time to time, but the award generally serves as a launching pad into the NFL for draft-eligible stars. At Oregon, Dante Moore could be the next player to delay his professional career and reap the benefits of a return to school. He was the betting favorite for the Heisman at one point in 2025 and will come back next fall more battle-tested and with a loaded stable of skill position players around him.

John Mateer also could have put his toes in the draft waters. LaNorris Sellers (+3000) and Gunner Stockton had a chance to bet on themselves in a weak quarterback class. Each of them will instead return as experienced dual-threat players who could rank among the sport's statistical leaders.

When top quarterbacks bypass the NFL Draft: What history says about Dante Moore's choice
Cameron Salerno
When top quarterbacks bypass the NFL Draft: What history says about Dante Moore's choice

Top transfers: Josh Hoover gives Indiana another contender

The last time a Heisman winner spent his entire career at one school was when Bryce Young thrived at Alabama. The next four played for multiple programs, and Mendoza and Caleb Williams won the trophy just one year into their Indiana and USC careers, respectively. Could someone from the 2026 transfer portal class keep the trend alive? History is on their side.

Josh Hoover has the best odds to do so. Perhaps lightning will strike twice at Indiana in the span of two seasons. Sam Leavitt could become the second player to transfer from Arizona State to LSU and win the Heisman in the last three years, following Jayden Daniels. If Brendan Sorsby clicks at Texas Tech, he could further cement the program as a national power as its first Heisman. In the SEC, Byrum Brown (+3500) and Aaron Philo (+5500) found great fits and boast talented supporting casts at Auburn and Florida, respectively.

Longshots: Drew Mestemaker holds dazzling statistical profile

Each of the last two awardees entered the season with odds of +5000 or longer. There are a number of candidates to follow in their footsteps in 2026. Both members of the Alabama quarterback battle, Austin Mack and Keelon Russell, are +5000 to earn the hardware and could reasonably excel in their first year as a starter. Incoming Penn State signal-caller Rocco Becht (+6000) should be one of the Big Ten's best quarterbacks after a successful run in the Big 12. And Drew Mestemaker (+7000) will be on a bigger stage at Oklahoma State than he was at North Texas, where he led the nation with 4,379 passing yards.

Team success is a major factor in the equation, though, and that is a hurdle too large for many trendy longshot picks to overcome.