2026 Big 12 football predictions: Game-by-game picks, projecting every team's final win-loss record

If there's one Power Four conference built for weekly chaos during the 2026 college football season, it's the Big 12. For a league hoping to place multiple teams in the College Football Playoff, every Saturday this fall will have high stakes, with as many as six teams capable of hanging around the national rankings and becoming threats.

The margin between first place and a mid-tier finish is razor-thin, but a handful of programs have positioned themselves to control the race. Texas Tech remains the league's measuring stick after last season's rise inside the top 10, while BYU has the returning talent and experience to make another championship push. 

There are others capable of making a run, including Utah, which begins a new era with championship expectations still intact; Oklahoma State, after quietly rebuilding its roster with a first-year coach capable of surprising doubters; and Houston, appearing ready to take another significant step under Willie Fritz.

MORE GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS: Big Ten | SEC | ACC

Will Joey McGuire and the Red Raiders repeat as league champions? The road will be difficult. For the most part, these final record picks and game-by-game predictions line up with our post-spring bowl projections and early CFP playoff bracket picks.

Arizona

Projected record: 8-4, 5-4
Wins: Northern Arizona, Northern Illinois, at Washington State, Cincinnati, at West Virginia, Iowa State, TCU, Arizona State
Losses: at BYU, at Texas Tech, Utah, at Kansas State

Noah Fifita has 73 career touchdown passes and 9,183 passing yards at Arizona, and he's still undersold nationally. Big 12 media understands his impact, but he hasn't reached outside of the West yet. That changes in his final campaign. After quietly winning nine games last fall, Brent Brennan is showing signs that the Wildcats are moving back toward Big 12 relevance. And with Fifita in charge, Arizona should take care of the games it's expected to win and protect home field against quality opponents like Arizona State and TCU. The schedule's toughest road tests are the season-definers, however. Trips to BYU, Texas Tech and Kansas State are among the conference's most difficult assignments, while Utah has the physicality to leave Tucson with a victory.  Keep an eye on those four matchups this season for a team on the threshold of the top 25.

Arizona State

Projected record: 8-4, 6-3
Wins: Morgan State, Kansas (London), Baylor, Hawaii, Kansas State, Colorado, at UCF, Oklahoma State
Losses: at Texas A&M, at Texas Tech, at BYU, at Arizona

Like other potential eight-win finishers in the conference, the Sun Devils' overall value comes down to how Kenny Dillingham and this team look against the top-15s on the slate. If Arizona State goes to College Station in September and beats the Aggies, this team will vault into the national rankings. Dillingham reaffirmed his commitment to the program this offseason despite interest from Michigan, a sign he clearly believes the Sun Devils can win big under his watch after reaching the CFP in 2024. And despite losing quarterback Sam Leavitt to LSU in the transfer portal, he's confident Arizona State can be a force.

Baylor

Projected record: 4-8, 2-7
Wins: Prairie View A&M, Louisiana Tech, at Kansas, Iowa State
Losses: Auburn (Atlanta), Colorado, at Arizona State, TCU, at UCF, at BYU, Texas Tech, at Houston

There's pressure on Dave Aranda to win this season, and he knows it. Failing to reach bowl eligibility likely ends his tenure in Waco, and if that happens, it would mean there's an inexcusable loss in there somewhere. Getting off on the right foot in the opener against an SEC foe is imperative for the Bears to establish some semblance of confidence. Beating Auburn leads to a 3-0 start and positivity heading into conference play, with a favorable home matchup against Colorado.

BYU

Projected record: 11-1, 9-0
Wins: Utah Tech, Arizona, at Colorado, at TCU, Iowa State, at UCF, Arizona State, at Utah, Baylor, at Kansas, Cincinnati
Losses: Notre Dame

Kalani Sitake will have words for the CFP selection committee once again if the Cougars are left out this time around after a potential unbeaten finish in the conference, only to meet their chief adversary, Texas Tech, in the Big 12 title game. With as many returning starters and impact players as BYU possesses on this roster, the schedule is favorable enough to envision an 11-1 finish with the lone blemish coming against national heavyweight Notre Dame in a marquee nonconference showdown. If BYU handles its business the rest of the way, the Cougars should be back in Arlington playing for a conference title. This team has the maturity, depth and toughness to make a legitimate run at the playoff. The issue here is schedule strength -- there's a chance the win at Utah might be the only ranked victory on the resume.

Cincinnati

Projected record: 5-7, 2-7
Wins: Boston College, Western Carolina, Miami (Ohio), Kansas State, Colorado
Losses: at Arizona, at West Virginia, Texas Tech, Utah, at Houston, at Iowa State, at BYU

Losing an elite-level quarterback to the transfer portal this offseason leaves Scott Satterfield facing his toughest challenge yet at Cincinnati. Replacing a proven passer is never easy in the Big 12, but the Bearcats are hoping former Georgia Southern star JC French is the answer. A handful of winnable games should keep the Bearcats competitive, but depth concerns may show up in a couple of challenging road spots, as well as in ranked matchups at home against Texas Tech and Utah. Unless Cincinnati finds notable production under center and can win at the line of scrimmage, bowl eligibility could remain just out of reach.

Colorado

Projected record: 3-9, 2-7
Wins: Weber State, at Baylor, UCF
Losses: at Georgia State, at Northwestern, Texas Tech, Utah, at Oklahoma State, Kansas State, at Arizona State, Houston, at Cincinnati

Few coaches nationally will face more pressure exiting the upcoming season than Deion Sanders if the Buffaloes stumble again in Big 12 play. He's 9-18 against league competition over his first three seasons, with seven of those wins coming during the 2024 campaign. Colorado's annual roster overhaul continues, but the Buffaloes haven't shown enough consistency in the trenches or on defense to believe a dramatic turnaround is coming after last season's 3-9 finish. Julian Lewis is talented, yet expecting a young quarterback to carry an offense through one of the Big 12's toughest schedules is asking too much. The outlook becomes more optimistic if Colorado can take out Northwestern and Baylor early on the road.

Houston

Projected record: 10-2, 7-2
Wins: Oregon State, Southern, at Georgia Southern, UCF, at Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, at Colorado, at West Virginia, Baylor 
Losses: at Texas Tech, at Utah

Willie Fritz has spent the last couple of years laying the foundation, and 2026 feels like the year Houston cashes in. The Cougars finally have the roster depth, line-of-scrimmage toughness and quarterback stability -- with Conner Weigman returning and a heralded five-star behind him -- needed to compete for a conference championship. Fritz's teams are rarely flashy, but they're disciplined, physical and built to win close games -- traits that matter in a conference where parity reigns. Houston also benefits from a manageable schedule, with only two road games appearing worrisome, creating a realistic path to double-digit wins. If the Cougars take care of business early, don't be surprised if they're playing meaningful football in November with a Big 12 Championship berth within reach. Splitting the Texas Tech and Utah contests could get them there.

Iowa State

Projected record: 4-8, 2-7
Wins: Southeast Missouri, Bowling Green, West Virginia, Cincinnati
Losses: at Iowa, Utah, at BYU, at Arizona, Oklahoma State, at Baylor, at UCF, Kansas State

This is a brand-new team for the Cyclones after most starters followed Matt Campbell to Penn State. Jimmy Rogers can handle it, but a signing class ranked near the bottom of the Power Four ranks is going to show in the toss-up games on the schedule this fall. The contests against Baylor, UCF and Kansas State will determine if Iowa State gets a postseason opportunity. The same goes for those schools, too.

Kansas

Projected record: 3-9, 1-8
Wins: LIU, Middle Tennessee, UCF
Losses: Missouri, Arizona State (London), at Utah, at Kansas State, Baylor, at TCU, at West Virginia, BYU, at Oklahoma State

That momentum Lance Leipold had after winning nine games and finishing in the top 25 in 2023 feels like it was so long ago, but it's important to note that he has raised the floor in Lawrence. The Jayhawks beat three ranked opponents in 2024 and got off to a 4-2 start last fall before capsizing down the stretch. The swing games this season come early -- the rivalry matchup with Missouri and the showdown with Arizona State across the pond. Losing both of those could spell doom. The biggest worry is the lack of returning starters after losing several veterans who made a notable impact on the program.

Kansas State

Projected record: 7-5, 4-5
Wins: Nicholls, Washington State, Tulane, Kansas, at Colorado, at Iowa State, Arizona
Losses: at Cincinnati, Houston, at Arizona State, Oklahoma State, at TCU

Kansas State has all the ingredients to emerge as the Big 12's surprise contender if the marriage between Avery Johnson and Collin Klein goes as expected on offense. The quarterback returns with another year of experience, and his dual-threat ability gives Klein's offense a ceiling few teams in the conference can match. Klein knows how to maximize Johnson's strengths, creating explosive plays while leaning on a physical rushing attack that travels well. Defensively, the Wildcats lost a couple of edge rushers to Indiana in the portal, but should be stout up front. If Johnson takes the expected leap as a passer, Kansas State could challenge for the eight- or nine-win mark.

Oklahoma State

Projected record: 9-3, 7-2
Wins: at Tulsa, Murray State, at West Virginia, UCF, Colorado, at Iowa State, at Kansas State, Kansas, Texas Tech
Losses: Oregon, at Houston, at Arizona State

One of college football's most-improved teams, take the over on the Cowboys' projected preseason win total and know Oklahoma State has several all-conference candidates offensively that can get you there. Eric Morris brought two dozen North Texas players with him to Stillwater as part of a 55-signee transfer class, including quarterback Drew Mestemaker and running back Caleb Hawkins. This isn't the team that lost to Oregon by 66 points during a humiliating 11-loss season in 2025. The culture is different, the personnel are revitalized and Morris is a winner.

TCU

Projected record: 8-4, 5-4
Wins: North Carolina (Ireland), Grambling State, Arkansas State, at Baylor, West Virginia, Kansas, Utah, Kansas State
Losses: at UCF, BYU, at Arizona, at Texas Tech

Another team with a possible game-breaker at the quarterback position, TCU signed Harvard's Jaden Craig this portal cycle to make up for the loss of multi-year starter Josh Hoover to Indiana, and coach Sonny Dykes feels great about the addition. Craig has the experience -- and confidence -- to make things happen as a first-time Big 12 performer and gets several winnable opportunities early to show his worth. If the Horned Frogs can crack the top half of the conference defensively, eight wins feels like the proper number.

Texas Tech

Projected record: 11-1, 8-1
Wins: Abilene Christian, at Oregon State, Houston, Sam Houston, at Colorado, Arizona State, at Cincinnati, Arizona, West Virginia, at Baylor, TCU
Losses: at Oklahoma State

Even without Brendan Sorsby at quarterback, this is Texas Tech's league to lose this season. If the Red Raiders get past the seismic matchup with Houston early, the rest of the slate is considerably manageable without BYU or Utah on the docket. No team in the conference spent more money on recruiting to bolster the roster and on the line of scrimmage; Texas Tech's power and strength rival any national title contender. Despite the loss of a school-record nine NFL Draft picks, don't expect a drop-off on either side of the football in Lubbock. This is a Texas-sized machine in the NIL era, with annual reloads that deliver immediate ROI.

UCF

Projected record: 5-7, 3-6
Wins: Bethune-Cookman, Georgia State, TCU, Baylor, Iowa State
Losses: at Pittsburgh, at Houston, at Oklahoma State, BYU, at Kansas, Arizona State, at Colorado

Scott Frost's team should be better, but that may not show up in the overall record this season. Former Sun Belt Player of the Year Alonza Barnett III suits up at quarterback, and he's one of 32 newcomers from college football's free-agency market. Many of those offseason signees make up the Knights' revised two-deep. If UCF can protect its home field and at least split matchups with expected Big 12 bottom-dwellers Kansas and Colorado, the Knights get to the six-win threshold.

Utah

Projected record: 10-2, 7-2
Wins: Idaho, Arkansas, Utah State, Iowa State, Houston, Kansas, at Colorado, at Cincinnati, at Arizona, West Virginia
Losses: BYU, at TCU

This is Morgan Scalley's program now, and he's ready for the challenge. Considering his coaching career began with the Utes as a graduate assistant in 2007, Scalley's been around for Utah's wonder years under the previous regime. Now in charge, the philosophy doesn't change -- physicality first from the line of scrimmage out. With one of the top quarterback rooms in the country and a strong offensive line, the Utes will force the issue. And if they can beat Houston and BYU, a trip to the playoff is not off the table. Scalley's first-year record at Utah could best what Kyle Whittingham manages to do at Michigan.

West Virginia

Projected record: 4-8, 2-7
Wins: Coastal Carolina, UT Martin, Cincinnati, Kansas
Losses: Virginia (Charlotte), Oklahoma State, at Iowa State, Arizona, at TCU, at Texas Tech, Houston, at Utah

Rich Rodriguez 2.0 hits Year 2 in Morgantown, and like many other Big 12 teams, a complete roster overhaul took place this offseason. Rodriguez is still figuring out what works and what doesn't with the Mountaineers, who need to take advantage of a soft early-season schedule, since November is brutal. Handing top transfer running back Cam Cook as many touches as possible feels like a great place to be if the offensive line obliges.

Projected final Big 12 standings