One of the great things about the modern era of college football is that we know less than ever before. For nearly our entire lives, fans and media alike have been able to look at the sport's history while reaching some startling conclusions, such as "this team has always been good, so it will be good again."
Then, suddenly, players are getting paid, the transfer portal comes into existence, and Indiana is winning national titles. None of it makes any sense, and it's great. There are legitimately seven different teams that could've begun the season at No. 1 in the major polls, and nobody would call you an idiot for putting them there. Well, OK, some people would call you an idiot, but that's more about the fact that some people are just addicted to being mad at strangers.
Still, the point is, confidence levels on preseason predictions are lower than ever before, but that doesn't mean we're going to stop making them.
The Big Ten is no different than the sport as a whole. The league has won three straight national titles with three different programs. And, again, one of the programs was Indiana. The league has had three different champions in those seasons as well. It enters the 2026 season widely considered the best league in the sport and is as wide-open at the top as ever, with even more teams that could push for a College Football Playoff at-large berth.
It's likely to be an incredible season in the Big Ten, and what follows are our best guesses as to what it will look like in the end.
Most overrated team
Iowa: Iowa is a high-floor program, so it's hard to call it overrated, but I suspect we're overlooking how important Mark Gronowski was to this offense last season. The Hawkeyes finished 11th in the country in points per red zone possession, due in part to Gronowski's legs (he rushed for 16 TDs). The 4.92 points per red zone possession the Hawkeyes scored were the most by a wide margin in at least the last 15 years. For a team that wins on the margins, any regression in that area could cause problems; plus, have you seen the schedule? Opening Big Ten play with Michigan, Ohio State and then Washington won't be easy, and there are some "coin-flip" games on the road against Minnesota and Illinois. 7-5 is very much in play. -- Tom Fornelli (also Chip Patterson, Brandon Marcello)
Michigan: Don't get me wrong, Michigan will be good. The Wolverines have an extremely talented roster with draft picks littered across the two-deep. But I question a few things:
1. There's a lot of new in Ann Arbor. Kyle Whittingham is one of the sport's best coaches, but his staff—mostly coming from Utah—is stepping into a different situation in the Big Ten.
2. I continue to hear the passing game with Bryce Underwood is a work in progress, and the Wolverines lack elite weapons.
3. The defense that kept Michigan in games last year returns just three starters.
Oh yeah, the schedule is brutal. Oklahoma, Penn State, Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State are all on deck. That's not an easy path. -- Chris Hummer (also Brad Crawford)
USC: If you want to buy into Lincoln Riley and USC, go for it. I won't be one of those people, not after watching Riley squander some elite talent in Los Angeles through his first four seasons at USC. There are reasons to be optimistic around USC, including Jayden Maiava's return and a spending spree on its freshman recruiting class. But I'm skeptical that turning to Gary Patterson, who last worked as an on-field coach in 2021, to run the defense proves to be some magical fix. -- John Talty
Penn State: With Penn State, it feels like the upshot everybody's pointing at is the schedule, which doesn't necessarily mean you're actually a good team. It just means you play an easy first five or six games. I don't know that Matt Campbell is an upgrade in Year 1 from the James Franklin ceiling issue that they've really always had. -- Richard Johnson
Most underrated team
Maryland: The Zahir Mathis injury stings for Maryland, but other than that, the Terps bring back so much of the top-end talent that was young from last year's team. Yes, there are some portal additions around that, but Maryland had a good young core to build around, and I think they're going to continue to do that this year. Don't sleep on the Terps.-- Johnson (also Fornelli)
Penn State: Facing the most favorable slate among Big Ten teams ranked in the preseason, Penn State is one of only two within the league who avoid Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana this fall. It's a yellow brick road -- of sorts -- Year 1 setup for Matt Campbell, who brought the best of his two-deep from Iowa State with him to Happy Valley. -- Crawford
Washington: Jedd Fisch has overachieved at every stop as a head coach. He did it at Arizona. He's won at Washington despite inheriting almost nothing from Kalen DeBoer. Now, he enters 2026 with arguably his most talented roster in Seattle and one of the true game changers in the sport at quarterback in Demond Williams. The Huskies do have to reload on defense, but sources indicated they expect an excellent front seven, perhaps even better than last year -- and that unit was a top-25 run defense. A difficult November stretch (Penn State, Indiana, Oregon) will determine just how far the Huskies can go, but I expect them to be in the Big Ten mix when that slog begins. -- Hummer
UCLA: Contextually, Bob Chesney may have been the best hire on the coaching carousel. UCLA is not going to blow people away in the NIL market, but grabbing a coach who can rebuild the roster overnight with a slew of transfers from a playoff team like James Madison is as good as it gets. The feeling here is that Nico Iamaleava will live up to expectations with an offense that better fits him, and behind a retooled offensive line and the addition of an All-American like Wayne Knight at running back will be enough to propel the offense from 126th last season into the top 40. These Bruins will not finish in the bottom three of the conference. -- Marcello
Iowa: The Hawkeyes seem to be perennially underrated. They don't play a sexy style of football and never get the preseason hype as some of their peers. But you know they'll have great defense and special teams that can keep them in hard-fought games. They are going to win at least eight games every season. If the offense can take another leap behind what should again be a very good offensive line, Iowa could have an outside shot at being a playoff party crasher. -- Talty
Minnesota: P.J. Fleck was once one of the youngest head coaches at the FBS level, but in 2026, he's an old-school program builder whose success is annually underrated in prediction season. He relies heavily on high school recruiting and player development, an option against large and expensive transfer portal classes. Because so much of college football is transactional, Minnesota's roster spending against its peers and lack of flashy portal classes leave experts to look elsewhere in their predictions. But when Lamborghini season is over and real football begins, the Gophers show you that spending millions in the portal doesn't guarantee wins. Minnesota has had a winning record in Big Ten play in four of the last five seasons, and they're poised to do it again with Drake Lindsay looking to build on his Year 1 success as a starting quarterback. -- Patterson
Bold predictions
- Tom Fornelli: Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana and USC will all average at least 35 points per game while nobody else in the league will crack 30.
- Chip Patterson: Every single team in the Big Ten will finish with a conference loss. The collision of top-tier teams, both inside the top three and extended to the top seven, set up a scenario where the league is unlikely to send an undefeated team to the College Football Playoff. But its CFP teams could be better prepared to win it all after the series of regular season tests.
- Brandon Marcello: Michigan and USC fight it out for the Big Ten's fourth spot in the College Football Playoff, leading to fascinating arguments among the selection committee about strength of schedule and the effects of USC's cross-country travel. Remember, they don't play each other this season in the Big Ten. The Wolverines win the war.
- John Talty: We will see a Big Ten championship rematch between Ohio State and Indiana, with the Buckeyes defeating the Hoosiers this time to earn a first-round playoff bye. After out-dueling Indiana's Josh Hoover, Julian Sayin wins the Heisman Trophy.
- Richard Johnson: USC and Ohio State deliver on the promise of the Big Ten experiment that blew the sport up, which was a conference that spans from sea to shining sea with a second strong team on the West Coast besides Oregon giving the Midwestern incumbents a run for their money in the conference and CFP race.
- Brad Crawford: Preseason No. 1 Ohio State enters the CFP as the No. 8 seed with three losses coming to Texas, Indiana and Oregon (in the Big Ten Championship Game). A potential first-round matchup in Columbus against Lane Kiffin and LSU will be the CFP's most-watched game before semifinal pairings a few weeks later.
- Chris Hummer: This is a year for the West Coast teams to make noise together in the Big Ten. I believe Oregon wins the league, USC and Washington will emerge as playoff contenders and UCLA pushes for a bowl game in Year 1 under Bob Chesney.
Big Ten predicted order of finish
 |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |  |  | | | | | ||
| 2 | | | | | | | | ||
| 3 | | | | | | | | ||
| 4 |  |  |  | | | | | ||
| 5 | | | | |  | | | ||
| 6 | | | | |  | |  | ||
| 7 | | | | | | | | ||
| 8 |  |  |  | | | | | ||
| 9 | | | | | | | | ||
| 10 | | | | | | | | ||
| 11 | | |  |  |  | | | ||
| 12 | | | | | | | | ||
| 13 | | | | | | | | ||
| 14 | | | | | |  | | ||
| 15 | | | | | | | | ||
| 16 |  | | | | | | | ||
| 17 | | | | | | | | ||
| 18 |  | | | | | | |
Big Ten champion
Ohio State: I could lie and tell you I'm confident in this pick, but I'm not. The only thing I'm confident in is that the Big Ten champion will be one of Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana. Since I couldn't find a three-sided coin to flip, I decided to go with the only one of the three that hasn't won the conference the last couple of years because the Big Ten likes to take turns with conference champions the same way it does national champions lately. -- Fornelli (also Talty)
Oregon: America seems accustomed to giving Ohio State the benefit of the doubt, but not this season. Not with Ohio State replacing eight starters on defense for a second straight season. The Ducks return more superstars and have better depth, and that's enough to give them the edge to win the Big Ten -- and the national championship. QB Dante Moore turned down first-round money to return alongside an incredible receiver corps led by Evan Stewart. The defense is solid again, too, with Matayo Uiagalelei also turning down the NFL. The addition of Koi Perich shores up the safety spot. Oregon may lose at Ohio State in November but still reach the Big Ten Championship Game. -- Marcello (also Johnson, Crawford, Hummer)
Indiana: Any one of the top three teams in the Big Ten is a perfectly fine selection, as they are all not only Big Ten title favorites but among the six or seven teams loaded up to make a run at the national championship. So to get specific to the Big Ten title race, here's how I think it breaks Curt Cignetti's way for a second year in a row. The Hoosiers host Ohio State in Bloomington in mid-October, and both teams will be on their seventh consecutive game without a bye. The difference is the Buckeyes could be a bit more taxed after playing road games against the likes of Texas and Iowa, while Indiana could be three-touchdown favorites in a handful of early season games. That's a good chance for Indiana, which does not play Oregon, to grab a head-to-head advantage in the conference standings to secure a spot in the Big Ten title game, where I've got the Hoosiers using the home-field advantage to get the best of the Ducks. -- Patterson
