The final week of the regular season has arrived, which means one thing for upset alerts: Rivalry Week. In these bitter matchups, throw out the record books and expect everything to change as rivals try to ruin seasons.
Each week, potential upsets are picked based on favorable matchups, context (i.e. location, rivalries, look-ahead games) or just good ol' fashion gut feel. For maximum effect, a spread of at least three points is required for consideration – the bigger, the better.
We sincerely hope you followed our picks in Week 12 because they were money. Our upset alerts correctly predicted Colorado to shock Washington and Louisiana to demolish Liberty. Additionally, Nebraska kept things close against Wisconsin and Kansas very nearly upset TCU -- it took a field goal at the buzzer to decide the game.
Let's finish the regular season with a bang.
| Picks | Week 12 | Overall |
|---|---|---|
ATS | 4-1 | 25-18 |
SU | 4-1 | 24-19 |
Important disclaimer: "upset" is defined by the odds, not rankings.
Kansas State at Texas
When: Friday, 12 p.m. ET | Where: Austin, Texas
We're doing this, Vegas? Texas has completely collapsed since starting 4-1, losing a historic six straight games for the first time since 1956. The Longhorns are fresh off a 31-23 loss against a West Virginia team that sits near the bottom of the conference standings. Granted, KSU quarterback Skylar Thompson could miss the game with an injury. The Wildcats lost three games as Thompson dealt with injuries in the season. But against a Texas team that seems to have quit, take the points. ATS: Kansas State, SU: Kansas State
UTEP at UAB
When: Saturday, 2 p.m. ET | Where: Birmingham, Alabama
The Blazers lost an emotional game against No. 22 UTSA on a last-second touchdown pass to thwart their chances at a second consecutive Conference USA title. Now, UAB is playing for nothing except pride as the program has won at least two-thirds of their games every year since reinstating football in 2017. Conversely, UTEP can win eight games for the first time since 2005, and it has the kind of explosive offense and suffocating defense that can sneak up on unsuspecting opponents. ATS: UTEP, SU: UAB
No. 3 Alabama at Auburn
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET | Where: Auburn, Alabama
On paper, the three-score line between the Iron Bowl rivals makes sense. But in the state of Alabama, games aren't played on paper. The Crimson Tide won their last two SEC games against No. 25 Arkansas and LSU by a combined 13 points, hardly the kind of performances that portend crushing wins over rivals on the road. Granted, Auburn sputtered to a 21-17 loss to South Carolina without quarterback Bo Nix, but expect the Tigers to come out with some juice against the Tide. ATS: Auburn, SU: Alabama
Oregon State at No. 11 Oregon
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET | Where: Eugene, Oregon
The Beavers beat Oregon in Corvallis last season for the first time since 2016 and followed it up with their first bowl season since 2013. Would there be any better story than following that up with a first win in Eugene since 2007? Oregon just suffered an embarrassing 38-7 loss against No. 19 Utah and primed for a letdown spot. Oregon State quarterback Connor Noland and running back B.J. Baylor make for one of the most underrated backfields in college football. The line is too big. ATS: Oregon State, SU: Oregon
UMass at New Mexico State
When: Saturday, 3 p.m. ET | Where: Las Cruces, New Mexico
Bizarre reports began circling this week that New Mexico State has already lined up its next head coach -- while current head coach Doug Martin still has the job. To the contrary, UMass fired its head coach Walt Bell weeks ago, but hired Don Brown to resurrect the program. So what gets your players more prepared, being coached by an interim or being coached by a dead man walking? Here's a tiebreaker: UMass actually has an FBS victory this year. NMSU's only win is over South Carolina State. ATS: UMass, SU: UMass
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 13, and which top College Football Playoff contender gets a huge scare? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread -- all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $3,700 in profit over the past five-plus seasons -- and find out.
