Ranking College Football Playoff paths: Indiana rewarded as top seed, Ohio State faces steep climb to repeat

The 2025 College Football Playoff is (almost) upon us. With the dust settled on the regular season and the conference championship games, we at least have a bracket to keep us sated until the actual games begin on Dec. 19. 

Even in the relatively limited scope of a 12-team playoff, not all paths are created equally. That is especially true in the straight-seeding era, where the top four teams -- rather than the four highest-ranked conference champions -- earned a first-round bye. 

This year of the playoff is also unique in that it features two Group of Five programs. No. 11 Tulane secured its spot with a win in the American Conference Championship Game, while No. 12 James Madison benefitted from a Sun Belt title and the fact that a five-loss Duke team won the ACC. 

While both the Green Wave and the Dukes deserve their playoff spots, most fail to see them as more than cannon fodder for the higher ranked first-round opponents they'll face. But there's also a fair few Power Four teams that look like easier matchups on paper. 

So, with a bracket in hand, it felt appropriate to take a look at the easiest and hardest paths in the 2025 College Football Playoff. 

College Football Playoff bracket picks: Expert predictions for who will win 2025 national championship

David Cobb

Easiest 

No. 1 Indiana 

First game: Winner of No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 9 Alabama in the Rose Bowl 

It's fitting -- this season, at least -- that the best team in the land is rewarded with a fairly simple path. The Hoosiers have extra time to prepare for Oklahoma and Alabama. They match up well against either. Neither the Sooners nor the Crimson Tide look like they're built for a deep run and both have offenses that will struggle to move the ball against Indiana. A win in the quarters would set up a semifinal showdown against Oregon -- a team that Indiana already beat by 10 points in the regular season -- or Texas Tech, the last of four teams with a first-round bye. 

No. 3 Georgia 

First game: Winner of No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 11 Tulane in Sugar Bowl

Georgia's first game is favorable, at least. The Bulldogs will meet either Tulane from the Group of Five or Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl. They'd obviously be heavily favored against the Green Wave and they have a recent track record of success against the Rebels. Georgia is 2-1 against Ole Miss since 2023, including a 43-35 win this season -- and those games were with Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss' helm. The Rebels are the playoff's biggest mystery after Kiffin ditched them for LSU before the postseason even began. They're certainly a motivated bunch, but motivation may not be enough to get them past Georgia. 

No. 5 Oregon 

First game: At home vs. No. 12 James Madison 

Oregon's home tilt against James Madison features the largest first-round point spread. The Ducks are favored by 21.5 points, per FanDuel Sportsbook. There's a mile-wide talent gap between the two programs. Barring something unforeseen, Oregon seems destined for a showdown with No. 4 Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl. The Red Raiders are legit and they've passed almost every test with flying colors this season, but they also haven't really matched up against a team of Oregon's caliber. It'll be a fascinating contest to watch, regardless. 

Hardest 

No. 2 Ohio State 

First game: Winner of No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Miami in Cotton Bowl 

Ohio State's first game will be against either an 11-win SEC team or a 10-2 Miami team that won its last four regular season games by an average of 27.5 points. The Hurricanes are also one of a handful of teams that might match up well against Ohio State in the trenches. Miami is littered with future NFL talent along its lines of scrimmage. If the Buckeyes win the Cotton Bowl, they'll likely have to contend with a semifinal showdown against SEC champ Georgia. The Bulldogs are among the few elite programs that can go band for band with Ohio State when it comes to talent acquisition. 

No. 10 Miami

First game: at No. 7 Texas A&M 

Texas A&M once looked like it had a case to be the No. 1 team in the nation, but the Aggies got derailed a bit due to a loss to Texas in the regular-season finale. That cost them a spot in the SEC Championship Game and a potential first-round bye. Fans will take a home playoff game as a nice consolation prize, especially since Texas A&M did not lose at home this season. It won its seven home games by an average margin of 19.1 points. So, yes, it's a tough draw for Miami in the first round. If the Hurricanes walk out of a hostile environment with a win, they're rewarded with a quarterfinal showdown against No. 2 Ohio State, the defending national champs and the most talented team in the nation.   

No. 12 James Madison 

First game: at No. 5 Oregon 

It may seem obvious that the last seed in the field faces a tough path to the national title game, but James Madison's path is very tough. The Dukes are big underdogs on the road against Oregon. The Ducks have lost just once inside Autzen Stadium since 2022, and that was this season to Indiana. If they somehow get past Oregon, they have to play an under-ranked No. 4 Texas Tech. Not that the Red Raiders should have jumped any teams ahead of them, but they look like legitimate national title contenders. Don't expect a Cinderella run here.