Texas A&M coach Mike Elko made one of college football's boldest personnel moves this season in the second half of Saturday's win over LSU, sending starting quarterback Conner Weigman to the bench in favor of Marcel Reed for a change of pace --- and the Aggies are now one of the SEC's surprising frontrunners as a result and currently have a compelling first-round clash in my College Football Playoff bracket projections.
Notre Dame, the only team to beat the Aggies this fall, registered another marquee win after throttling previously-unbeaten Navy, cashing in on multiple mistakes from the Midshipmen early to run away in a nationally-ranked matchup that was never competitive. I see the Fighting Irish as in the CFP with room to spare.
While I have a waning trust in Ohio State after surviving Nebraska's upset bid in Columbus despite being a 25.5-point favorite, I still think the committee may still value them over Texas -- which would conveniently avoid a first-round Big Ten matchup between Ohio State and Indiana, even if the committee says they don't care if they have to schedule rematches (uh-huh, sureeee). Indiana and Ohio State will play Nov. 23 in Columbus. Anyway, we currently have Ohio State as the No. 5 seed playing No. 12 Boise State in the opening round.
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Our projections, which we've done every week this season and which we expect to really get interesting as the committee sets to unveil its first rankings Nov. 5, differ slightly from the sports betting markets. Georgia is the favorite at +340 to win the CFP title at Caesars Sportsbook. Other top contenders to win the CFP include Ohio State at +425, Oregon +475 and Texas at +475, according to latest odds at Caesars. In our projected bracket, we have Oregon at No. 1 after the Ducks continued to strengthe following Saturday's blowout win over Illinois. When you register at Caesars Sportsbook today, you can earn a welcome bonus that unlocks up to a $1,000 first bet back as a bonus bet. Use the promo code 'CBS1000' to claim this offer.
Projected byes in College Football Playoff
1. Oregon
Big Ten champion
The Ducks scored touchdowns on all but one of their first-half possessions against the Fighting Illini and sent Illinois home with its feeling hurt after a rhythmic beatdown at Autzen Stadium. Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel punctuated his Heisman candidacy with four total touchdowns before halftime. Oregon is the best team in the country and for now, deserves top billing in this CFP projection.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +475
2. Georgia
SEC champion
Kirby Smart's team was clearly motivated to play their best on defense in last week's win over Texas as the Bulldogs nullified one of the SEC's most-talented offenses. They'll play in Jacksonville, Fla. against the rival Florida Gators in Week 10 and will be in great position to play in the conference championship game by winning out (at Ole Miss, Tennessee).
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +340
3. Clemson
ACC champion
Winners of six straight games and unbeaten in ACC play, you can guarantee Tigers coach Dabo Swinney watched Pittsburgh handle Syracuse during his open week, taking notes on Pat Narduzzi's unbeaten football team. Clemson travels to play the Panthers on Nov. 16, but first has to tackle Louisville and Virginia Tech over the next two weeks to keep pace with Miami atop the conference.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +1600
4. BYU
Big 12 champion
Oddsmakers made us think in Orlando — why were the Cougars road underdogs against struggling UCF? BYU jumped out to a 17-point lead before pulling away in the third quarter. Iowa State is the betting favorite to win the Big 12, but we've circled BYU as the No. 4 seed for weeks and aren't moving off that projected until the Cougars falter. The remaining schedule is the most favorable among Big 12 title hopefuls and BYU already has a win over Kansas State, one of the quartet of teams still in the mix to win the league.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +11000
Projected CFP first-round games
5. Ohio State vs. No. 12 Boise State (in Columbus)
Winner plays No. 4 BYU
About the Buckeyes: Offensive line woes are worrisome for the Buckeyes. Ohio State failed to find any success on the ground against Nebraska and trailed early in the fourth quarter, at home, in what amounted to a must-win matchup. Day lost his composure after a targeting call in the final moments, but Ohio State's defense came up with an interception to preserve the victory. This one-loss team is playing with tremendous pressure and it shows.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +425
About the Broncos: The Broncos now have the two toughest games on their schedule behind them. Friday's win at UNLV was critical toward all Group of Five playoff scenarios and Boise State came through in the clutch with a game-winning possession in the fourth quarter.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +10000
6. Texas vs. No. 11 Indiana (in Austin)
Winner plays. No. 3 Clemson
About the Longhorns: Lack of push up front from an underperforming offensive line and a couple turnovers from Quinn Ewers kept the Longhorns from pulling away from Vanderbilt on the road. But in the SEC, winning trumps looking pretty and Texas finished it off. The Commodores were the last remaining nationally-ranked opponent on the slate for Steve Sarkisian's team prior to playing Texas A&M on Nov. 30. That's going to be one of the most-anticipated contests in the history of Lonestar State rivalry with the Aggies
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +475
About the Hoosiers: Curt Cignetti had his team prepared to play well against Washington despite quarterback Kurtis Rourke on the mend due to injury. We mentioned earlier this month it was time to consider the unbeaten Hoosiers as a serious Big Ten title threat and they're going to be favored in three of their final four games. The trip to Ohio State next month could decide who plays top-ranked Oregon in the league championship game unless chaos happens.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +4000
7. Miami vs. No. 10 Texas A&M (in Coral Gables)
Winner plays No. 2 Georgia
About the Hurricanes: Thirty-six points without a touchdown from Cam Ward? That's how lethal this Miami offense can be when the running game is humming. The Hurricanes dispatched rival Florida State easily and for the first time in a month, handled an opponent in the ACC without any late-game drama.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +1800
About the Aggies: No team in college football saw a greater rise in national championship hopes in Week 9 than the Aggies, who made the switch to quarterback Marcel Reed in the third quarter and never looked back in a big-time win over LSU. Texas A&M will be on upset-alert next week at South Carolina, one of the last remaining hurdles before the much-anticipated finale at Kyle Field against Texas.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +2400
8. Penn State vs. No. 10 Notre Dame (in Happy Valley)
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon
About Penn State: It's never easy to win at Wisconsin's Camp Randall Stadium, especially when you've lost your starting quarterback and find yourself trailing at halftime. This was Penn State's third quality road victory this season, pairing it with expected bowl teams West Virginia and USC. The game-changing moment against the Badgers came in the third quarter when Penn State's Jaylen Reed stepped in front of an errant pass and returned it 19 yards for a touchdown.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +1200
About Notre Dame: Navy was supposed to be a test for the Fighting Irish, but the Midshipmen coughed it up too many times early at MetLife Stadium— an uncharacteristic move from a team that usually protects the football within its option-based offense. Notre Dame has the look of an 11-win team, but to get there, Marcus Freeman and Co. will have to beat Army and USC next month, among others.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +3000
College Football Playoff quarterfinals are at the following bowl sites this year: Fiesta (Dec. 31), Rose (Jan. 1), Sugar (Jan. 1) and Peach (Jan. 1). Among notable tie-ins in the expanded playoff, the Sugar Bowl automatically gets the highest-ranked SEC or Big 12 team in the quarters, so second-seeded Georgia would be playing in New Orleans.