When the College Football Playoff expanded to 12 teams, 6-seed Penn State was held up as a shining example of a team that would've benefitted the most from an expanded field the entire playoff era. Well, it turns out it was true because here we are in the first season of the 12-team field, and look who not only made the field but has won two games to reach the semifinals.
It's the Penn State Nittany Lions!
Yep, the team that's long been hit with the "can't win the big one" tag has indeed won a couple of big ones the last few weeks, and now it finds itself a couple more big ones away from its first national title since 1986. Of the four teams remaining, Penn State is viewed as the underdog, but it's a misnomer considering the quality of the field remaining.
While Penn State might not be the team with the best odds of hoisting the trophy on Monday, Jan. 20, it has a realistic chance to do so. Here's why.
1. A hell-raising defense
The biggest question surrounding Penn State after its Fiesta Bowl victory is the status of standout defensive end Abdul Carter, who ended the game on the sideline watching due to injury. The good news is Carter's social media presence suggests his injury will not keep him out of the Orange Bowl, which is great news for the Nittany Lions and terrible news for Notre Dame.
Carter is the best player on one of the best defenses in the country. It's a unit that ranks ninth nationally in points allowed per possession (1.41), and its strength is a defensive front that causes a ton of chaos. Carter leads the way with 21.5 tackles for loss and 11 sacks, but he's hardly a one-man show. Dani Dennis-Sutton (11 TFL, 6.5 sacks), Zane Durant (10 TFL, 3 sacks), Kobe King (8.5 TFL, 3 sacks), Amin Vanover (3.5 sacks) and plenty of others are more than happy to join the party in the backfield.
It's why the Nittany Lions defense ranks ninth in havoc rate (19.6%) and 10th in negative play rate (37.9%). In short, they end a lot of plays before they ever have the chance to begin.
2. An explosive offense
It surprises people to learn that despite not having household names at the wide receiver position, Penn State has one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Everybody knows about Ohio State's offense and the future NFL star receivers, so they aren't surprised to hear the Buckeyes rank fifth nationally with an explosive play rate of 16.5%. But guess who's sixth? That's right, it's Penn State at 15.6%.
What's more remarkable? Penn State is tied with Ohio State for explosive pass rate at 20%, which ranks 10th nationally. The reason for it is a combination of Drew Allar, Mackey Award-winning tight end Tyler Warren and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki's ability to scheme open players with the chance to get yards after getting the ball.
The Nittany Lions are explosive on the ground with Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen too, and a lot of the damage comes late in games. Penn State has an explosive rush rate of 11.2% in the first half of games -- which is good but not great. That number climbs to 13.5% in the second half. We saw evidence of this in the Fiesta Bowl where Singleton and Allen wore the Boise State defense down all game before Singleton busted loose for the 58-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter to ice the game.
It's a well-rounded unit that can win games in different ways.
3. Red zone excellence
You hear coaches talking about the red zone all the time because the red zone is extremely important. The best teams finish drives with touchdowns and hold their opponents to field goals or no points at all. Penn State is great at both aspects, and it's a big reason the Nittany Lions have gotten this far.
On offense, 37.58% of Penn State's possessions reach the red zone (17th nationally), which is higher than any other remaining CFP team. The 4.84 points the Lions score when they reach the red zone ranks 17th as well and trails only the 4.89 points Ohio State scores when it's there.
Defensively, the Nittany Lions rank 2nd nationally by allowing only 3.24 points per red zone trip. Again, the only team they trail in that department is Ohio State at 3.09.
