2025 Big Ten Football Championship - Ohio State v Indiana
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The top-4 seeds in the College Football Playoff will finally get their postseason underway this week, as Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia and Texas Tech enter the fray for the quarterfinals after enjoying a bye in the first round. 

A year ago, the bye week was more of a curse than a blessing, as all four top seeds were bounced in the quarterfinals. That was under the old model where the byes were reserved for conference champions, but it's still a trend worth monitoring in the constant debate about rest vs. rust. 

The other four teams will be coming in riding the high of a first-round win. Oregon and Ole Miss cruised to wins at home, while Alabama came back from a 17-point deficit to beat Oklahoma in Norman and Miami won a defensive slugfest in College Station over Texas A&M. Each of those teams will have to make adjustments to new competition for the quarterfinals, but each will be brimming with confidence after their victories. 

We'll find out who will punch their tickets to the semifinals on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day, but for now we can try and predict the outcomes of each quarterfinal matchup. 

Cotton Bowl

No. 10 Miami vs. No. 2 Ohio State: It's a long-awaited rematch of the 2003 BCS National Championship Game that saw the Buckeyes claim their first national title in over 30 years over the defending champion Hurricanes. This time Ohio State enters as the reigning champs and the strong favorites, with Miami needing to conjure up its best performance of the season to topple the Buckeyes and avenge that loss from 23 years ago. 

The story of this game will be which offense can produce the most scoring opportunities against a pair of stingy defenses. We saw in the first round how well Miami's defense can play, as they held Texas A&M to just three points. Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor are a ferocious pass rushing tandem and their ability to apply pressure to Julian Sayin to keep him from attacking downfield to Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate will be critical to the Hurricanes having a chance to win. 

On the other side, Miami has to crack the code of an Ohio State defense that hasn't allowed more than 16 points all season -- even their lone loss was a 13-10 duel with Indiana in the Big Ten title game. The Canes were incredibly conservative with their game plan against Texas A&M, opting not to let Carson Beck put the ball in harm's way with downfield throws. They ran it well inside with Mark Fletcher, but that's a taller order against this Buckeyes defense. If they can't get it going on the ground, they're going to have to trust Beck to put it up to Malachi Toney and others. That'll bring Ohio State's defensive stars into play, with Arvell Reese rushing the passer and Caleb Downs lurking in the secondary. 

This game really comes down to which quarterback I trust to make positive plays when provided the opportunity, and that's Sayin. It helps to have two of the nation's best receivers on the outside, but I think they'll be able to find a few explosives to get in front and then turn their defense loose on Beck and the Miami offense. PICK: Ohio State 24-13 over Miami

Orange Bowl

No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech: Another game featuring two excellent defenses that will likely come down to which offense can create the most explosive plays. 

The Red Raiders are firmly in the Ohio State-Indiana tier of defense, and have been particularly elite at stopping opponents from running the ball effectively. Texas Tech's front seven is phenomenal, led by Butkus winner Jacob Rodriguez but featuring multiple All-Americans, and they're going to present an incredibly stiff test for Oregon's offense. 

The Ducks typically look to run the ball first to set up the pass, but they may have to flip the script against the Red Raiders and lean more on Dante Moore's arm to try and pull Texas Tech's linebackers away from the line of scrimmage. Moore will be as confident as he's been all year after carving up James Madison through the air, but this Texas Tech defense is a very different animal.  

On the other side, Oregon has a top-10 scoring defense as well, and while they gave up 34 to JMU, 28 of those points came in the second half with the game already put to bed. Texas Tech's offense ranks highly, but against top competition they've had their ups and downs, with the defense often leading the way in their biggest wins. 

What they are great at, just like Oregon, is creating explosive plays. The Ducks rank No. 1 among FBS teams in 20+ yard plays, while the Red Raiders are No. 3. These offenses don't look to go on long, methodical marches, and that means this game could have a unique rhythm to it. We might see a string of three-and-outs followed by quick-strike scoring drives from both offenses. 

The team that can create those chunk plays more often will get the win, and I trust Oregon's offense a bit more than Texas Tech's to do that, even understanding how good the Red Raiders are defensively. PICK: Oregon 26-20 over Texas Tech

Rose Bowl

No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana: Who ever would've imagined an Alabama-Indiana playoff game with the Hoosiers as a touchdown favorite? Perhaps only Curt Cignetti, who has the Hoosiers as the lone undefeated team remaining in college football. 

Any questions about Indiana's pedigree have been answered this year with a win at Oregon and a Big Ten title victory over Ohio State. Now they face an Alabama team that was leaking oil coming into the playoff before finding some form offensively in Norman after falling behind by 17 in the first quarter. It took five quarters to crack the code of the Oklahoma defense, but they'll need to figure out a way to move it on Indiana's stout group much faster than that. 

Indiana finished the year second in the country in scoring defense, and for how good Oklahoma is, they present an even stiffer challenge for Ty Simpson and company. On offense, Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza can carve up a defense if they aren't locked in, and the Tide will have to avoid a sluggish start like they had in Oklahoma. 

I think this game could follow a similar script to the SEC title game, where Alabama just looks overmatched on offense and the defense eventually cracks. It might not be that lopsided, but Indiana has had all the answers this season defensively and Mendoza's knack for creating big plays when they need them most makes me a believer that the Hoosiers get this done and rather comfortably. PICK: Indiana 31-17 over Alabama

Sugar Bowl

No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia: For the second straight playoff game, Ole Miss will take on an opponent they faced in the regular season. Their first-round game against Tulane looked a lot like their regular season win, but they'll be hoping for a different outcome against Georgia after a heartbreaking loss in Athens for their lone loss this year. 

That game was a track meet, and it'll be interesting to see whether Ole Miss can find that same level of success on offense again. They carved up the Dawgs for three quarters before Georgia shut them down in the fourth to come back and get the eight-point win. Georgia might've figured something out, not just against Ole Miss but overall, because they've been a defensive juggernaut ever since. 

I expect Georgia to try and dictate the pace of this game to avoid another shootout because, while they won the first matchup, there's no doubt it was played largely on Ole Miss' terms. The Dawgs have figured out how to get pressure on the quarterback lately after a woeful start to the season from their pass rush, and I expect Trinidad Chambliss to be under fire from the start. 

Ole Miss is going to score some because that's what they do, but I don't think it'll be nearly as efficient offensively as the first meeting. Rematches are often tough for the winning team, but I think Georgia will feel like they're the side with the most to improve upon in terms of playing their game. They've found that ability to dictate the pace and terms of engagement in the second half of the season, and if that continues in New Orleans, they'll be rolling into the semis. PICK: Georgia 31-20 over Ole Miss 

Who will win and cover in each college football bowl and playoff game? SportsLine's computer model just simulated each matchup 10,000 times and has revealed its picks. Visit SportsLine now to see all its college football picks.