After numerous FBS vs. FCS contests in Week 1, the meat of nonconference play starts to hit in Week 2. Three nonconference matchups feature battles of ranked opponents, while three other ranked teams face lines of fewer than 12 points.
The game involving the biggest teams of the weekend may not be close as No. 1 Alabama sits as a 20-point road favorite against Texas. However, that doesn't mean there isn't a bet to be made. No. 6 Texas A&M and No. 10 Baylor also face tricky opponents, while No. 25 Houston sits as the lone ranked underdog of the weekend against an unranked opponent.
Finding value takes many forms for sharp bettors. Finding an underdog with the potential to win and deliver an inflated money line victory is a gold standard. However, identifying teams that can pull off a late cover or a favorite that can stretch a lead well past the line can result in winnings as well. If the time is right, we might even delve into over/under plays with upside.
Last week, we gave you real value by jumping on the Arizona (+196) and Florida State (+130) money lines early. Additionally, an -11.5 line was embarrassingly small for BYU against a horrific South Florida team. Unfortunately, Illinois fell just short in a battle against Indiana that closed as a pick 'em. The worst pick involved Louisville covering a -5.5 line against Syracuse. The Cardinals are officially dead to us until further notice.
Week 2 provides plenty of value as the majority of power squads play serious Group of Five opponents. Here are five games where there's real betting value to be found.
No. 1 Alabama vs. Texas
When: Saturday, 12 p.m. ET | Where: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium -- Austin, Texas
Texas has high expectations after a complete offensive roster rebuild, headlined by the introduction of former No. 1 overall recruit Quinn Ewers at quarterback. Of course, sitting on the other sideline is an Alabama team that ranks No. 1 in the nation and expects to win the national championship. Heisman-winning quarterback Bryce Young led the Tide to 41 first-half points against a solid Utah State squad, and now he plays one of the most unproven defenses in college football. The line has been hanging around 20 points, but the safer bet is the point total. If Texas can scrape together 20 points -- which it did in all but one game last season -- Alabama's offense should easily push this over. Pick: Over 65.5 (-110)
Appalachian State vs. No. 6 Texas A&M
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET | Where: Kyle Field -- College Station, Texas
One week ago, Texas A&M needed a handful of explosive plays to generate consistent offense against Sam Houston. Three of the four touchdowns traveled more than 40 yards as quarterback Haynes King struggled connecting with receivers anywhere in the short and intermediate game. Multiple offensive line starters are also dealing with nagging injuries. While the Mountaineers are hardly known for their defense, App State has the weapons to make the Aggies pay down the field in a way that Sam Houston could not. Just last week, the Mountaineers scored 40 points in one quarter and cleared 61 against North Carolina. This game will remain close if Texas A&M can't fix its offensive issues. Pick: App State +19 (-110)
Iowa State vs. Iowa
When: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET | Where: Kinnick Stadium -- Iowa City, Iowa
I don't care what the point total is in any Iowa game heading forward, it's too big. Oddsmakers could set it at two points and I'd consider taking it. The Hawkeyes scored a cool seven points against FCS South Dakota State thanks to a field goal and two safeties. Now, Iowa plays against a tremendous Iowa State defensive front without any path to improvement offensively. Just as importantly, the Hawkeyes face ISU quarterback Hunter Dekkers in his first-ever Power Five start. Points won't come easy. Pick: Under 41.5 (-110)
No. 20 Kentucky vs. No. 12 Florida
When: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET | Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium -- Gainesville, Florida
Florida is riding high after beating Utah in coach Billy Napier's debut, with the Gators rising 19 spots in the CBS Sports 131 rankings. While Florida deserves plenty of respect for the win, expectations have suddenly flown off the charts with quarterback Anthony Richardson's Heisman odds jumping to 20-1 after the win. Now, Florida has to follow up a tight, physical victory with another game against a major ranked opponent that could play out in similar fashion. The Wildcats beat the Gators last season and have the kind of physical defense to keep this game close. Kentucky is 2-2 vs. Florida since snapping its 31-year losing streak. At nearly 2-to-1 value, betting on a Gators letdown is a winner. Pick: Kentucky ML (+185)
No. 21 BYU vs. No. 9 Baylor
When: Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ET | Where: LaVell Edwards Stadium -- Provo, Utah
These two programs are intimately familiar with each other after Baylor beat the Cougars 38-24 in Waco last season, months after the Bears poached offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes and offensive line coach Eric Mateos. The dynamics will be different as the game moves to Provo, but Baylor dominated the matchup last season. Perhaps the deciding factor? BYU receivers Puka Nacua and Gunner Romney are both dealing with injury issues. Those two players combined for 249 of Jaren Hall's 342 yards passing last week. If either is limited, it's hard to see the Cougars attacking downfield against one of the nation's top defenses. Pick: Baylor ML (+143)
| Last week | Season |
|---|---|
| 3-2 | 3-2 |
Which picks can you make with confidence, and which Top 25 favorite goes down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread this week, all from a proven computer model that has returned $3,500 in profit over the past five-plus seasons.
