Upsets and close calls have quickly become the story of the college football season. In Week 4, No. 18 Oklahoma became the fifth preseason top-10 team to lose to a lower-ranked opponent. There were plenty of near-upsets as well. No. 4 Michigan struggled to put away Maryland; No. 5 Clemson needed double-overtime to beat No. 22 Wake Forest; No. 13 Oregon arguably should have lost to Washington State; and No. 8 Kentucky perhaps looked ahead to No. 14 Ole Miss in its win over Northern Illinois.
As we head deeper into conference play, now is the time to take advantage of smart bets where plus money is available. Plenty of highly ranked teams are in vulnerable spots, including some of those on alert a week ago, and conditions may be right for some money line sprinkles.
Of course, the challenge will be discerning whether these matchups ultimately prove to be speed bumps or harbingers of things to come. With a month of football under our belt, we're diving deep to pick five potential upsets that should be on your radar heading into Week 5.
All odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
No. 4 Michigan at Iowa
When: Saturday, 12 p.m. ET | Where: Kinnick Stadium -- Iowa City, Iowa
Say what you want about Iowa's offense, but the Hawkeyes wreak absolute havoc on defense. Iowa has held its three opponents to 23 points -- combined! Perhaps more importantly, Iowa is starting to find some real success moving the ball after the bleak start to the season.
Now enter Michigan, perhaps the least battle-tested offense in the nation. The Wolverines jumped to No. 4 in the nation despite playing three of the bottom six teams in the CBS 131 Rankings. In the lone matchup against a halfway competent team, Michigan barely edged Maryland 34-27 despite being gifted a short field touchdown on a muffed opening kickoff.
Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy has never started a game on the road, nor has he started against a defense as good as Iowa's. Saturday afternoon in Kinnick Stadium could be a rude awakening. But the money stat? Jim Harbaugh has never won at Kinnick Stadium in three matchups as a player and coach. The Wolverines have not won in Iowa City since 2005. Pick: Iowa +335
No. 7 Kentucky at No. 14 Ole Miss
When: Saturday, 12 p.m. ET | Where: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium -- Oxford, Mississippi
The case for Kentucky is similar to the one for Iowa. Ole Miss has played one of the softest schedules in the nation and is fresh off toying around with 2-2 Tulsa in a 35-27 victory. Quarterback Jaxson Dart has been relatively efficient, but the Rebels have primarily bowled past overmatched opponents.
Kentucky has a trump card, however. The Wildcats rank No. 121 nationally in rushing success rate, but running back Chris Rodriguez is set to rejoin the lineup after a suspension. Rodriguez rushed for 1,379 yards and nine touchdowns in 2021 as one of the best running backs in the SEC during the Wildcats' 10-win campaign.
Mix a returning Rodriguez with a sound defense and the experience coach Mark Stoops has built over the undefeated start, and the Wildcats should be getting more respect. Take the 'Cats to eke past Lane Kiffin's squad in The Grove. Pick: Kentucky +210
Georgia State at Army
When: Saturday, 12 p.m. ET | Where: Michie Stadium -- West Point, New York
Congratulations to Georgia State, which has officially taken over the mantle of being the best 0-4 team in the nation. The Panthers have losses to North Carolina and Charlotte by a combined eight points, and they were competitive against solid Coastal Carolina and South Carolina teams. Now, the Panthers travel to New York to play Army's option offense.
The troops haven't been quite at the top of their game in the early going, and there are certainly holes to be found. The Black Knights lost a 10-point game against the Chanticleers and fell to UTSA in overtime. Army's defense allowed quarterbacks Grayson McCall and Frank Harris to each throw for three touchdowns with zero interceptions in those losses.
Georgia State's front has been feisty against the run, holding its daunting list of opponents to an average of 4.2 yards per carry. Will that be able to keep up against an option offense? Playing Coastal Carolina a week earlier is about the best prep you can get. Pick: Georgia State +240
Oregon State at No. 12 Utah
When: Saturday, 2 p.m. ET | Where: Rice-Eccles Stadium -- Salt Lake City, Utah
Oregon State gave USC just about everything it could handle last week in a narrow 17-14 loss. It took four Chance Nolan interceptions to give the Trojans a chance at the end to pull out a win. However, Nolan has a shot to redeem himself as the Beavers travel to No. 12 Utah with a real shot to enter the rankings.
The Utes were picked to win the Pac-12 and compete for a College Football Playoff spot, but early results have been mixed. A 29-26 loss to Florida continues to age worse, while a season-ending injury to star tight end Brant Kuithe puts a massive damper on the offensive upside. Oregon State showed last week it can get teams out of rhythm, and that should only be aided by the Kuithe injury. The value is there. Pick: Oregon State +300
No. 10 NC State at No. 5 Clemson
When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET | Where: Memorial Stadium -- Clemson, South Carolina
Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei might have just flipped the switch and figured everything out after throwing for 371 yards and five touchdowns against Wake Forest. Or, more likely, one of the worst overall defenses in the nation -- which let Uiagalelei throw for a season-high 10.9 yards per pass attempt a season ago -- allowed video game numbers against their first quality opponent. Regardless, NC State's defense poses a completely different challenge. Three Wolfpack defenders earned Preseason All-ACC nods and NC State already has seven defensive interceptions.
The key really comes on the other side as NC State quarterback Devin Leary goes up against a Clemson pass defense that has struggled to stay true when it can't get to the passer. Leary's numbers against quality competition have been shaky, but his track record of success is there. He threw four touchdowns in an upset of Clemson last season and is more than capable of turning things on against the Tigers in 2022. Pick: NC State +215
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 5, and which top-10 favorite will go down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread -- all from a proven computer model that has returned more than $3,100 in profit over the past six-plus seasons -- and find out.
