Indiana vs. Miami: Early preview, odds, picks as Hoosiers will meet Hurricanes in CFP National Championship
Indiana and Miami will battle it out for the national championship on Jan. 19 inside the home of the Hurricanes
•
7 min read
The second College Football Playoff National Championship of the 12-team era is set as No. 1 Indiana secured a spot in the title game with a win against No. 5 Oregon in the Peach Bowl, setting up a showdown with No. 10 Miami on Monday, Jan. 19 in Miami. It will be Indiana's first-ever appearance in a national championship game, while it marks Miami's return to a national title stage for the first time since 2002-03.
The Indiana-Oregon rematch provided even more support for the Hoosiers's status as the No. 1 team in the country heading into the College Football Playoff. With a second victory against the Ducks, the Hoosiers now have five wins against teams that were ranked in the top 10 at the time of the game as well as wins over last year's Big Ten champion and last year's national champion. Indiana has had to earn respect with its rapid rise one win at a time, and though it's navigated a forest of blue bloods and big brands, there is one last win that would immortalize this season in the history of college football.
Miami secured its spot in the CFP National Championship by winning an instant classic, scoring in the final minute against Ole Miss in a Fiesta Bowl for the ages. The game had five lead changes, with three coming in the fourth quarter, as the Hurricanes and Rebels went back-and-forth with a spot in the title game on the line. Carson Beck's touchdown run with 18 seconds left proved to be the moment that college football could confidently say that that "The U" was, indeed, back.
Though the Hurricanes will officially be the road team with the lower seed, the setting of Hard Rock Stadium will mark the first time in the BCS/CFP era (since 1998) that a team has played for the national championship on its home turf. Specifically for Miami, it also marks a return home after a lengthy road trip, as Mario Cristobal's crew has gone 5-0 in road and neutral games since its home finale back on Nov. 15.
In terms of series history, Indiana and Miami have played just twice ever and not since 1966. The Hoosiers won the first-ever meeting 28-14 back in 1964, and then the Hurricanes got revenge with a 14-7 victory two years later. But in the absence of recent history, there is an abundance of anticipation for what a national title would mean for each program.
Now, let's get into what to know for Indiana and Miami as the sport prepares to crown a modern champion for this modern era in college football.
What to know about Indiana
Now at 15-0 with a pair of double-digit wins in the College Football Playoff, the 2025 Indiana Hoosiers are building a case as one of the most impressive and dominant teams in the modern era of the sport. Clearly, a national championship is the last piece of the puzzle to enter the conversation with the other iconic teams of the BCS/CFP era, but even looking at the Hoosiers in this moment, it's tough to not consider this one of the most impressive stories in all of modern sports.
Curt Cignetti is 26-2 since taking over a program that had not won an outright Big Ten title since 1945 and had just six bowl appearances between 1994-2023. In just two years, Cignetti has totally flipped the ideal of Indiana's potential on its head, and now one of the largest living alumni bases in the country is head-over-heels for Hoosier football. Indiana's performance against Oregon in front of a Crimson-colored crowd in Atlanta drives home the impact of Cignetti's success, as if back-to-back national Coach of the Year honors and the school's two winningest football seasons ever weren't enough.
Though Cignetti and his staff -- many of whom have been with him through stops at IUP, Elon and James Madison -- have done a remarkable job flipping and filling the Indiana roster with a team capable of beating the best teams in the country, there is also a deserved spotlight for quarterback Fernando Mendoza. The Heisman Trophy winner does not always back up the awards circuit with stellar postseason play, but Mendoza has been excellent through two rounds of the playoff and the NFL Draft buzz around a player competing for the No. 1 overall pick has only heightened with these last couple of wins. Mendoza arrived at Indiana from Cal with plenty of physical tools, but his player development as a pocket passer and the way he connects with Indiana's wide receivers for contested catches creates an almost unguardable scenario for opposing defensive backs. Mendoza has always had the talent to be an NFL quarterback, but at Indiana, he's developed into the country's best quarterback and is surrounded by one of the best teams we've seen.
"Teams" is an important part of Indiana's story, because while Cignetti and Mendoza have been bringing in hardware, there is a top-down commitment that requires total buy-in for Indiana's success. This is not a team that is loaded up with former four-star and five-star prospects, but instead a group with pieces from across all levels of college football. They do their job, execute at a high level and don't beat themselves. It's that commitment to execution that has allowed Indiana to close the perceived talent gap in wins against Oregon (twice), Ohio State and Alabama.
What to know about Miami
Mario Cristobal has delivered on the promise of championship contention at his alma mater, where he himself won two national championships as a player, thanks to a CFP run for the ages. The Hurricanes were the last at-large team into the field at the No. 10 seed, but after knocking off No. 7 Texas A&M and No. 2 Ohio State as an underdog, the tables were flipped for the semifinals against Ole Miss. Miami led early but trailed late as the Rebels found more second-half magic, but Carson Beck's clutch play on the the Hurricanes' final offensive drives resulted in the game-winning touchdown to secure the 31-27 win.
In total, this is a run for Miami that really stretches back to an overtime loss at SMU on Nov. 1. With their playoff hopes on the line each week, the Hurricanes finished the regular season with four straight conference wins by an average margin of 27.5 points per game. It was good enough to land a spot in the five-way tie for second place in the ACC standings, but unfortunately, the complex tiebreaker procedure left Miami on the outside looking in of the ACC Championship Game. With no conference title path to the playoff, the Hurricanes could only hope for an at-large selection to make the bracket and the selection committee, controversially, flipped the order of Notre Dame and Miami in the final rankings to reflect the head-to-head advantage of Miami's win against the Fighting Irish in Week 1.
So now, the last team into the field has a chance to be the last team standing, and if it happens, then a good bit of credit will go to the Hurricanes defense that has been leading the way in the playoff run. After pitching first half shutouts against Texas A&M and Ohio State, Miami's defense became the first team since Oct. 11 to hold Ole Miss under 30 points. The pass rushing duo of Reuben Bain and Akheem Mesidor have been among the nation's best all season, and their ability to apply pressure on Fernando Mendoza will be a big key to tilting the title game in their favor.
And while Beck had the heroics for the final score, anyone who has followed this Miami run knows that the offense does not meet the moment without the help of running back Mark Fletcher, wide receiver Malachi Toney and a bruising offensive line that sets the tone up front. While Beck was a transfer in from Georgia, Fletcher and Toney are local products who have played a huge role in re-establishing the standard of "The U" on a national scale. Here in Year 4 for Mario Cristobal, the roster is a perfect blend of high school talent he's brought into the program and well-evaluated transfer portal hits that have fit in perfectly to address needs on the depth chart. Cristobal may be a representative of Miami's legendary past, but he's powering the program into the future with a modern approach to building a championship roster.
Early CFP National Championship odds, picks
It's extremely difficult to think that Indiana is all of the sudden going to stop operating at a high level when it comes to out-executing its opponents, even in a potentially hostile environment against Miami. The Hurricanes have some ways to cause problems for Fernando Mendoza that Oregon was not able to do in the semifinals, but the same Hoosiers defense that has been in attack mode all season long can certainly wreck shop as well for Carson Beck. Though Miami's story, and the potential of winning at home, make for a tempting narrative to buy, there's been too much evidence that Indiana is the best team in the country and probably has been all year. My official prediction is that the Hoosiers finish the job and leave no doubt, cementing an all-time 16-0 title run. Opening line pick: Indiana -7.5
Who will win and cover in each college football bowl and playoff game? SportsLine's computer model just simulated each matchup 10,000 times and has revealed its picks. Visit SportsLine now to see all its college football picks.
