Will Indiana cap dominant CFP run or does Miami add to its storied history in national championship game?

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. -- A wild and fascinating 2025 college football season all comes down to this. 

One game to not only determine college football's best, but to possibly prove any program with the right plan and right amount of money can win big in this current era. 

No. 1 Indiana has crushed everyone on its path to Hard Rock Stadium. First, it was a 38-3 shellacking of No. 9 Alabama in the Rose Bowl. Then came a dominant 56-22 win over No. 5 Oregon in the Peach Bowl. Led by Curt Cignetti, Indiana is so good that you sometimes forget just how incomprehensible it would have been just two years ago to imagine the Hoosiers winning a national championship in football. 

No. 10 Miami squeaked into the field as the last at-large team but has proven it belongs. The Hurricanes upset No. 7 Texas A&M, No. 2 Ohio State and No. 6 Ole Miss to get a home national championship date. Miami is one win away from Mario Cristobal finally declaring, "The U is back." Miami is an 8.5-point underdog to Indiana. 

Who wins Monday night? Here's the blueprint for each to do so …

How Indiana can win

To start, just keep doing what it has been doing. Against Alabama and Oregon, the defense was ferocious and effective at pressuring the quarterback. The offense was remarkably balanced with the Hoosiers averaging 184.5 passing yards and 200 rushing yards in those games. Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza didn't rack up the passing yards but still totaled eight passing touchdowns. Indiana is very good at giving itself third-and-manageable situations on offense that make it hard for an opposing defense to get off the field. 

Against a stout Miami team, it'll come down to the trenches. Miami has a talented offensive line which includes future top 10 draft pick Francis Mauigoa and All-American center James Brockermeyer. Indiana DC Bryant Haines is a defensive wizard whose defense tormented Alabama's Ty Simpson and Oregon's Dante Moore. How aggressive does Haines need to be to get pressure on Miami quarterback Carson Beck? Can the defense force Beck into a big mistake early the way it did against Moore? Indiana has a nation's best plus-21 turnover margin headed into the title game. 

"So just from the front to the linebackers, they all do a really good job flying around making plays, creating chaos," Brockermeyer said. "It's going to be a really big challenge for us. They do a good job of playing together. Don't really make mistakes."

Offensively, there is opportunity for Indiana against Miami's secondary. The Hurricanes will be without Xavier Lucas for the first half, a notable loss that Cignetti and offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan will find a way to capitalize on. The Hoosiers boast a ton of receiving options, led by Omar Cooper Jr., Elijah Sarratt and Charlie Becker. It'll be challenging for Miami to stop, especially if Mendoza can keep finding guys like Sarratt with those beautiful back-shoulder throws. 

If Indiana plays its game -- smart, methodical, without major errors -- it should win. 

How Miami can win

The Hurricanes are a sizable underdog in this game for a reason. A lot is going to have to break right for Miami to pull off the upset. 

Two critical components: 1) Keep a clean pocket for Carson Beck and 2) Force Fernando Mendoza into mistakes. 

Indiana's quarterback is so efficient and so smart with the ball, but he's not flawless. In Indiana's 13-10 slugfest win over Ohio State in the Big Ten championship, Mendoza was sacked three times and threw an interception. It'll be crucial for Miami DC Corey Hetherman, who knows Cignetti and Shanahan well from their shared time at James Madison, to unleash Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor on Mendoza. Miami's pass-rushing stars have combined for 19 sacks and 32 tackles for loss this season. The Hurricanes will need at least a few against the Hoosiers on Monday. 

"Miami's D-line, it all starts with them," Indiana offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan said. "They got a lot of really talented guys, guys also play really hard, and they can be very disruptive as we all know. So keeping them off balance with the run pass, but also the scheme, what they're seeing play in and play out. It all goes into it. And then moving the pocket, changing loss points, quick game, RPOs, just trying to keep them off balance, keep them guessing throughout the game."

Offensively, the biggest threat Miami has over Indiana is Malachi Toney. He's so elusive, so talented with the ball in space, that even when you gameplan him, he's still almost impossible to completely stop. Against Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl, Toney had a 36-yard touchdown that gave Miami a late fourth-quarter lead. Miami offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson has to find creative ways to get Toney the ball. 

Prediction: Indiana 34, Miami 20