AJ McCarron and the Tide offense avoid any uncharacteristic mistakes, Arkansas's in trouble. (Getty Images)

ALABAMA WILL WIN IF: they don't implode. If AJ McCarron doesn't suddenly throw a flurry of picks, if the Tide don't allow Dennis Johnson to return multiple kickoffs for scores, if Robert Lester and Vinnie Sunseri can avoid running into each other Keystone Cops-style to allow a long Arkansas touchdown pass -- like, three times -- Alabama's going to win the game.

Perhaps we shouldn't be so dismissive. This is the same Razorback team that was ranked No. 8 in the country at this time last week, now wounded and angry, playing at home with a chance to redeem their already rapidly decaying season, with one of the best running backs in the nation and -- potentially -- one of the best quarterbacks in the nation running the show. But Tyler Wilson or no Tyler Wilson, it's worth remembering that the Hogs didn't lose to ULM by fluke. They were outgained 550-377; their defense couldn't get a second-half stop to save their proverbial lives; even with Knile Davis on board, they ran for fewer yards per-carry than the Warhawks did.

Not much of that had much to do with Wilson's absence. Whether he plays or doesn't (and given Brandon Allen's 6-for-20 performance vs. ULM, he'd better), Alabama is the better team by miles and miles and miles. If they play anything like themselves, they win, and they probably win easily.

ARKANSAS WILL WIN IF: Alabama implodes. But the Hogs can do themselves a gigantic favor if they can move the ball on the ground. At all.

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Because in the recent history between the two schools, they have not. At all. In 2008, the start of the Bobby Petrino era, the Hogs were outrushed by the Tide 328-92. 2009: 134-63. 2010: 227-64. 2011: 197-17. The average score over those four games? Alabama 37, Arkansas 13.75. The Hogs have tried to pass their way past the Tide, and with the exception of the first two quarters in 2010, it has not worked.

With fewer Razorback weapons at wideout and the Tide secondary looking as impenetrable as ever vs. Michigan, even Wilson's return won't be more than a footnote if the Hogs can't force Alabama to worry about something other than getting beaten downfield. In Davis, they have the start of something that could be that thing. Are Paul Petrino and John L. Smith up to figuring out how to make him more than a decoy vs. Nick Saban, even when Bobby Petrino never could?

Doing so is their only hope.

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THE X-FACTOR: If the Hogs were ever going to play the Game of Their Lives, you would think they might choose this week to play it--backs as snugly against the wall as they'll go, John L. Smith looking at not coaching a day past that one-season contract, the embarrassment of last week still burning white-hot, nobody (and we mean nobody) giving them the tiniest sliver of a chance of winning this game. And if they do play the Game of Their Lives, maybe the two teams aren't as far apart as we think?