Air Force takes down Navy: Falcons take big step toward Commander-in-Chief's Trophy with win over Midshipmen

End of 3Q: Air Force 14, Navy 9

The Falcons will carry a five-point lead into the fourth quarter, but they also just got a sobering image as the third quarter came to an end. Following the last play, quarterback Liam Szarka went down in serious pain. Medical staff was on the field attending to an apparent leg injury, and Szarka spent some time in the medical tent while trainers looked at his right calf.

Szarka is the main cog in Air Force's offense, and the Falcons need him to finish off this victory. Szarka is up to 138 total yards and two touchdowns, and he's been the driving force behind each one of his team's big plays.

Szarka missed just one pay in the fourth quarter before returning to the game.

6:59 3Q: Air Force 14, Navy 9

The Midshipmen needed that in the worst way. Jackson Gutierrez dropped back to pass and found receiver Truman Brasfield running wide open down the middle of the field. Brasfield reeled in the cacth and avoided a couple of Air Force defenders for a 68-yard touchdown.

Navy had been looking for a spark all game, and it finally got one, thanks to Brasfield. Now, the defense needs to get the ball back in the hands of its offense as the Midshipmen eye a comeback.

Halftime: Air Force 14, Navy 3

After a slow start in the first quarter, Air Force found its offensive rhythm in the second quarter, and it has what feels like a very comfortable 11-point lead at haftime.

Liam Szarka has been the difference for the Falcons to this point. He's totaled 106 yards and a pair of touchdowns, and he recovered nicely after tossing an interception on Air Force's first drive of the game. Navy, on the other hand, hasn't gotten anything going. The Midshipmen put together one sustained drive, but everything else has been incredibly brief.

2:21 2Q: Air Force 7, Navy 3

Well, the Midshipmen have a little life on offense. With starting quarterback Braxton Woodson battling an ankle injury, backup Jackson Gutierrez entered the game and led the best drive of the afternoon for Navy. Gutierrez is up to 53 total yards, and he put Nolan Bartley in position to drill a 29-yard field goal. Maybe this will give Navy a bit of badly needed momentum.

9:11 2Q: Air Force 7, Navy 0

Well, if running the ball isn't getting the job done, why not open up the playbook and sling the tater? That's what Air Force just did, and it worked like a charm. Liam Szarka completed two passes for 37 yards on that drive to get the Falcons into scoring position before he punched in a rushing touchdown at the goal line.

Finally, one of these teams has broken through on the scoreboard. Now it's Navy's chance to respond. Can it find some answers on offense?

End of 1Q: Navy 0, Air Force 0

The familiarity between these two programs is having a huge impact on this game early. Air Force and Navy are two of the best teams in the country at running the football, but neither side has found much room so far today. The Falcons and Midshipmen have combined for just 76 yards on the ground as the defenses have been in full control.

Which offense will be the first to create a little daylight? The way this game is going, it may not take many points to pull out a win.

10:49 1Q: Navy 0, Air Force 0

Neither of these teams is really known for its passing attack and we just found out why. The Falcons tried to catch the Midshipmen napping with a pass, but it backfired on them.

Air Force quarterback Liam Szarka rolled out to his right and threw a ball into traffic down the sideline. Navy defensive back Phillip Hamilton came down with the jump all and a big early momentum swing for his team. The Falcons were moving the ball relatively well before that play, and one bad decision killed the drive.

Start of 1Q: Navy 0, Air Force 0

The ball is in the air, and we are underway in this first leg of the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. The Falcons are looking to snap a five-game losing streak to their fellow service academy opponents, and the Midshipmen are trying to end a run of poor form on the road. Something has to give today, and it's time to find out exactly what it will be.

Navy starting quarterback Braxton Woodson went down with an ankle injury in the team's Week 2 loss to FAU, and he hasn't played any meaningful snaps since then.

Last week, Woodson went through warmups in full uniform but only played the first snap of the game. After that, he gave way to backup quarterback Jackson Gutierrez. Although Gutierrez has performed admirably in Woodson's absence, the Midshipmen need their starter to have the best chance at knocking off the Falcons today.

It'll be interesting to see exactly how effective Woodson is, assuming he does see game action this afternoon.

The Falcons haven't hoisted the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy since 2022, which is the longest drought of all three service academies. Frankly, Air Force hasn't been close over the last few years, but that could change this fall.

Air Force is a narrow favorite as Navy comes to town, and this is a tremendous opportunity for the Falcons to get an early leg up on the Commander-n-Chief's Trophy race. Can the Falcons take advantage of a weary Midshipmen squad?

Commander-in-Chief's Trophy winners

• 2025: Navy
• 2024: Navy
• 2023: Army
• 20223: Air Force

By the time Navy gets home from Colorado Springs, the Midshipmen will be a weary bunch of travelers. Following this round trip to play Air Force, Navy will be up to 7,004 miles traveled, and it's barely October.

Long trips to Boca Raton, Birmingham and Colorado Springs have contributed to that high mileage. I hope someone is at least racking up on airline miles and hotel points.

• at FAU: 2,108 miles
• at UAB: 1,556 miles
• at Air Force: 3,340 miles

If Navy loses to the Falcons, it will have nothing to show for those road trips except a 1-3 record.

Some will tell you that passing the ball is the more efficient play. That it's more exciting. That it's a better TV product.

Those people have clearly never watched Air Force and Navy play football. These teams are both averaging 333.7 rush yards per game while averaging under 100 passing yards per game. Air Force runs the ball on 83.7% of plays while Navy runs it on 76.4% of plays. That ranks second and third in the nation, respectively. Only Army runs the damn ball more often.

Highest run rates in FBS

• Army -- 84.1%
• Air Force -- 83.7%
• Navy -- 76.4%
• West Virginia -- 75.9%
• Rice -- 75.3%

Over the last four seasons, Air Force has taken a notable step back. From 2019-23, the Falcons were a force in the Group of Five. That simply hasn't been the case lately, and the defense has completed crumbled in that span. Troy Calhoun is trying to get things back on track, and picking up a win today would be a sign of improvement.

I was given the unenviable task of making a pick on this game, and it wasn't easy because the teams appear to be quite evenly matched on paper. That's why I turned to old reliable in service academy games: The total. The defenses make the over more appealing than usual, but who could fade the under when it's been a proven strategy in these games since the start of the 21st century?

Navy vs. Air Force prediction, pick, odds, spread: Falcons aim to snap two-game skid against Midshipmen

Austin Nivison