A berth in the College Football Playoff Championship Game will be at stake when the sixth-seeded Ohio State Buckeyes battle the third-seeded Texas Longhorns in the CFP semifinals on Friday, Jan. 10, at the Cotton Bowl. Ohio State defeated Oregon 41-21 in the Rose Bowl, while Texas outlasted Arizona State 39-31 in double overtime in the Peach Bowl. The Buckeyes (12-2), who placed fourth in the Big Ten at 7-2, are 4-1 against AP ranked teams this season. The Longhorns (13-2), who won the SEC regular-season championship, are 6-2 against ranked teams in 2024-25.
Kickoff from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. Texas leads the all-time series 2-1, last meeting in 2009. The Buckeyes are 5.5-point favorites in the latest Ohio State vs. Texas odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 53.5. Before making any Texas vs. Ohio State picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a betting profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks, and it is 43-35 on top-rated picks during the 2024 season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen impressive returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Ohio State vs. Texas. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football betting lines and trends for Texas vs. Ohio State:
- Ohio State vs. Texas spread: Ohio State -5.5
- Ohio State vs. Texas over/under: 53.5 points
- Ohio State vs. Texas money line: Ohio State -235, Texas +192
- OSU: The Buckeyes have covered the spread in five of their last seven games (+2.80 units)
- TEX: The Longhorns have hit the money line in 12 of their last 14 games (+8.65 units)
- Ohio State vs. Texas picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Ohio State vs. Texas streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why Ohio State can cover
Senior quarterback Will Howard is playing at an elite level. In the quarterfinal win over Oregon on New Year's Day, he completed 17 of 26 passes (65.4%) for 319 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. He threw for 311 yards on 24 of 29 passing (82.8%) and two touchdowns with one interception in a 42-17 thrashing of Tennessee in the first round. For the season, he has completed 268 of 369 passes (72.6%) for 3,490 yards and 32 touchdowns with nine interceptions with a 175.8 rating.
Freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is one of Howard's top targets. For the season, he has 70 receptions for 1,224 yards (17.5 average) and 14 touchdowns. In the win over Oregon, he had seven receptions for 187 yards (26.7 average) and two touchdowns. He had six catches for 103 yards (17.2 average) and two touchdowns in the win over Tennessee. See which team to pick here.
Why Texas can cover
Junior quarterback Quinn Ewers has helped power the dynamic Longhorns offense. In 13 games this season, he has completed 270 of 406 passes (66.5%) for 3,189 yards and 29 touchdowns with 11 interceptions with a rating of 150.6. In the double-overtime win over Arizona State, he completed 20 of 30 passes (66.7%) for 322 yards and three touchdowns with one interception. In the 22-19 overtime loss to Georgia in the SEC title game, he threw for 358 yards and a score.
Sophomore running back Quintrevion Wisner leads the Texas rushing attack. In 14 games, Wisner has carried 209 times for 1,018 yards (4.9 average) and five touchdowns. He also caught 38 passes for 269 yards (7.1 average) and one touchdown. In the 38-24 first-round playoff win over Clemson on Dec. 21, he rushed 15 times for 110 yards (7.3 average) and two touchdowns. For the season, he has surpassed 100 yards rushing four times, including a high of 186 on 33 carries in a 17-7 win at Texas A&M on Nov. 30. See which team to pick here.
How to make Texas vs. Ohio State picks
The model is going under the total with the model projecting 49 total points and also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Ohio State vs. Texas, and which side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Ohio State vs. Texas spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up well over $2,000 on its FBS college football picks, and find out.
