Ole Miss' playoff hopes have likely ended, but it's rivalry week, and facing Mississippi State is -- and always will be -- the biggest game of the season in the Magnolia State.
A promising season has soured for the Rebels (8-3, 4-3 SEC) following a 24-17 loss at Florida. Now outside the 12-team playoff hunt, the Rebels can still claim a 10-win season for the third time in four years. Meanwhile, Mississippi State (2-9, 0-7) is limping to the end of a terrible debut season under first-year head coach Jeff Lebby. The Bulldogs are in danger of losing a 10th game for the first time since 2003 (Jackie Sherrill's final season) and going winless in the SEC for the first time since 2002.
Saturday is also a reunion for the coaches. Lebby served as Lane Kiffn's offensive coordinator at Ole Miss in 2020 and 2021, and helped lead the program to the Sugar Bowl three years ago. The two respect each other, though Kiffin hasn't been afraid to poke fun at the Mississippi State head coach on social media.
Ole Miss has won three of the last four in the Egg Bowl, but only one win was by double digits.
Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss: Need to know
It's a bad matchup for MSU's offensive line: Mississippi State figures to be in a load of trouble in the trenches against Ole Miss. The Rebels lead the nation with 4.5 sacks per game, including 25 in the last four games. Princely Umanmielen and Suntarine Perkins co-lead the team with 10.5 sacks. The Bulldogs' offensive line has been porous allowing 3.2 sacks per game, ranking 122nd nationally in the 134-team FBS.
"I don't think there is a question about it: it's the most talented roster we've played all season long," Lebby said of Ole Miss. "It's on the tape; you know what it is from a personnel standpoint."
Ole Miss' losses are kinda weird: How does Ole Miss have three losses on the schedule despite owning the nation's No. 2 offense and a top-5 scoring defense? It bucks the metric and makes this season all the more frustrating for the Rebels, who were built to win a championship and are likely set to fall short of a 12-team playoff. It's been a weird season, and weird things tend to happen in the Egg Bowl.
How does Jaxson Dart respond? Jaxson Dart threw two costly interceptions near the end of the game -- including the game-sealing pick -- to hand Florida the win last week. He apologized to his teammates, coaches, and fans after the game in a scene reminiscent of Florida quarterback Tim Tebow's "promise" speech after losing to Ole Miss in 2008. Dart spent time at Kiffin's house Saturday night in Oxford, discussing the game and how to move forward.
"He took it really hard," Kiffin said.
Dart has been exceptional most of the season -- Kiffin said receivers dropped passes that would have resulted in 100 more yards against Florida -- and is the winningest quarterback in Ole Miss history. He can become the school's all-time leading passer Saturday with 49 yards, surpassing Eli Manning's record of 10,119.
Bulldogs don't do anything particularly well: Jeff Lebby promised the Bulldogs would score loads of points with his cutting-edge offense, but that hasn't happened. He wasn't expecting his hand-picked quarterback from the transfer portal (Blake Shapen) to be lost for the season due to injury, but averaging only 26.9 points per game (78th) is a non-starter for an offense designed to put defenses in terrible spots. Just last week, Missouri held the ball for more than 40 minutes. The defense is a disaster, too, ranking 127th in total defense (461.8 ypg) and 121st in points allowed (34.8). Unsurprisingly, MSU is 130th in time of possession.
How to watch Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss live
Date: Friday, Nov. 29 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium – Oxford, Mississippi
TV: ABC | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)
Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss prediction, picks
One could argue that Ole Miss will come out on fire, motivated by its loss to Florida and looking to take out its frustrations with rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl. I understand the sentiment, but weird stuff happens in this rivalry, and I suspect the Rebels' disappointment in missing the playoff will lead to a flatter-than-expected performance. That's not to say the Bulldogs will win or make it close, but Mississippi State's performances in previous road games at Texas, Georgia and Tennessee (all covers) provide enough evidence to believe Jeff Lebby will keep this within the betting line. Pick: Mississippi State +26
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