Only four conference games are on the docket this week in the SEC, but we do have some doozies – and one could lead to a knockout punch for a coach on the hot seat.
Florida's Billy Napier will try to prolong his stay on the coaching carousel's death row with a win at Mississippi State, in what might be the weakest SEC matchup on paper but also the most intriguing because of the stakes.
We nearly got our first upset within the SEC last week, but LSU rallied at South Carolina, winning 36-33 in a game of follies, blunders and exceptional quarterback play from Garrett Nussmeier and LaNorris Sellers. Still, it's easy to feel better about LSU's loss to USC in Week 1 than it is after a win against the other USC in Week 3. I have so many more questions than answers about Brian Kelly's handling of the defense, and whether the Tigers will continue to be inconsistent week to week.
It was a difficult Week 3 for my picks because of a pair of mild upsets, and Ole Miss and Tennessee outperforming the already-wild expectations on offense. I was an incredulous 4-9 against the spread after placing too much confidence in Vanderbilt and Mississippi State to win – and cover! I also slipped in The Swamp, thinking the Gators would beat the Aggies without Conner Weigman at quarterback. Live and learn.
It's a new week and we're only one game below .500 against the spread this year. Time to turn it around.
Most interesting games
The scene in Norman, Oklahoma, is going to encapsulate everything that makes college football spectacular. Not only is Oklahoma opening its new era in the SEC, but it's doing so against a top-five team and against its favorite son, Tennessee coach Josh Heupel. The storylines will evoke passion from the deep corners of the Sooners' hearts.
"I'm expecting them to be extremely quiet for us out of respect to me and our program," Heupel joked this week.
Heupel sparked the Sooners to their return to the big time in 1999, when coach Bob Stoops and the quarterback led the program to the BCS national title in January 2020. Heupel later spent nine years in Norman as an assistant coach before he was fired by Stoops in 2014, leaving a trail of bad blood that has since been cleaned up but left stains on Heupel and Oklahoma.
Let's rank the most interesting games this week, from OU's SEC opener to Arch Manning's first start and South Carolina's lack of action in MACtion.
- No. 6 Tennessee at No. 15 Oklahoma
- Arkansas at Auburn
- UCLA at No. 16 LSU
- Bowling Green at No. 25 Texas A&M
- Florida at Mississippi State
- Vanderbilt at No. 7 Missouri
- ULM at No. 1 Texas
- Ohio at Kentucky
- Georgia Southern at No. 5 Ole Miss
- Akron at South Carolina
Just a SECond
Before we move on to this week's SEC picks, a few interesting notes from the CBS Sports research team:
- Oklahoma is a 7.5-point underdog against No. 6 Tennessee, its largest spread as a home underdog since 1999, when Tennessee coach Josh Heupel was the Sooners' quarterback against Texas A&M.
- The Sooners are 2-1 in their debut games in a new conference.
- Texas' Arch Manning is set to become the first in the Manning Family (Archie, Peyton and Eli) to start a game for a team ranked No. 1 in the AP poll.
- Ole Miss' Jaxson Dart is only the third FBS quarterback since 2000 to complete 80% of his passes for 1,000-plus yards in the first three games of the season.
- Florida has lost seven straight to FBS teams for the first time since 1979.
- Mississippi State, which hosts Florida, has lost six of its last seven FBS games.
Picks
Straight up: 32-6 | Against the spread: 16-17
*Picks use opening SportsLine consensus odds
Florida at Mississippi State
Florida hasn't shown much signs of life with its head coach on the hottest of hot seats, and Mississippi State pieced together a listless performance in a blowout loss to Toledo at home last week. The Gators have more talent, particularly along the defensive line, and should win, no matter what Billy Napier decides to do at quarterback. MSU's hope is to slow the running game and force Graham Mertz and/or DJ Lagway to throw downfield. Florida has lost six straight with Mertz as the starting quarterback but that changes Saturday in Starkville, Mississippi. Pick: Florida -4.5
Ohio at Kentucky
No matter the opponent, Kentucky's offense has struggled, so don't let a near-win against Georgia lead you to believe the Wildcats will come out firing and beat up Ohio for a breakout game on offense. Quarterback Brock Vandagriff has not been the answer we hoped to see in Lexington, Kentucky, throwing for only 313 yards in three games. Coach Mark Stoops cautioned this week that Ohio's defense is "very, very tough," so we'll follow his lead and take Ohio to keep it within two touchdowns. Pick: Ohio -19
Arkansas at Auburn
Arkansas can move the ball, and more importantly, the Razorbacks are one of the nation's best at running the ball. The Hogs have surpassed 230-plus yards in all three games and lead the country in rushing touchdowns (15). Auburn struggled last week, allowing an average of 6 yards per carry against New Mexico. The question is whether Arkansas can protect the ball, something it struggled – and why it lost – at Oklahoma State in Week 2. Auburn is 1-4 against FBS teams at home under Hugh Freeze, and redshirt freshman quarterback Hank Brown is making his first start in the SEC. Pick: Arkansas +3.5
UCLA at No. 16 LSU
LSU might be hot and cold all season on defense, so prepare accordingly. The feeling here is LSU will be much better in Death Valley, especially during the hottest part of the day in the mid-afternoon. UCLA was blown out by Indiana last week at home and fans are already wondering if promoting DeShaun Foster to head coach was the right decision in the offseason. The Tigers should score in bunches, which will be enough counter (or complement) whatever they do on defense. The Tigers win their 12th straight home game and cover. Pick: LSU -17.5
Vanderbilt at No. 7 Missouri
Vanderbilt burned us last week with an inexplicable loss in Atlanta at Georgia State, but we're still on board with Diego Pavia and crew, who scored 15 points in 75 seconds to take a late lead before losing last week. (Stop scheduling road games in the Sun Belt, OK?). Missouri didn't necessarily look shaky in its first test of the season, though nationally-ranked Boston College gave the Tigers a small scare with its running quarterback, Thomas Castellanos, keeping plays alive and throwing downfield. Mizzou has too many weapons but Pavia should keep plays alive with his feet and score enough to keep this within three touchdowns. Pick: Vanderbilt -20.5
No. 6 Tennessee at No. 15 Oklahoma
Forget the storylines for a moment, and let's look at what's happening on the field. It's no secret Oklahoma's offense has been inconsistent through three weeks, with a close call against Houston and some herky-jerky movement last week against Tulane. Jackson Arnold is a great quarterback, but is he relying too much on Deion Burks? The Sooners rank 110th in third-down conversions. Tennessee's offense is the best (on paper) in the country with 1,918 yards through three weeks, the most through three games since Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson were leading Texas Tech and Louisville, respectively. Oklahoma's defense can slow anyone, but the key here is Tennessee's defensive line, which was fantastic two weeks ago against NC State. If the Sooners struggle to hit three touchdowns, the Vols win big. Pick: Tennessee -7.5
Akron at South Carolina
This pick hinges on quarterback LaNorris Sellers' availability. Shane Beamer said Tuesday that Sellers assured him he "will be ready to go" Saturday. If so, the Gamecocks roll. If not, expect more of what you saw in the fourth quarter last week against LSU, when coaches were afraid to allow Robby Ashford to throw the ball – and when he did, he was usually off target. Pick: South Carolina -27.5
Bowling Green at No. 25 Texas A&M
Beware of the MAC, for it has returned. The nation's best Group of Five conference has terrorized the Power Four. Northern Illinois upset then-No. 5 Notre Dame in Week 2 and Toledo drilled Mississippi State last week. Bowling Green pushed Penn State to its limits and lost in Week 2 and return from a bye week looking to upset Texas A&M on the road. Can the MAC make it three weeks in a row with an upset? Probably not. Texas A&M seems to have upgraded on offense with backup Marcel Reed as the starter. The quarterback racked up 261 yards and adds a dynamic similar to what Mike Elko had when Duke was rolling last season with Riley Leonard. Pick: Bowling Green -24.5
Georgia Southern at No. 5 Ole Miss
Ole Miss returns to preseason action with yet another cupcake on the schedule. The Rebels were impressive in their first road game, a 40-6 win at Wake Forest, and have lit the scoreboard aflame with points against lackluster competition (plus-159 is the most through three games in school history). Ole Miss has won five straight non-conference home games by 25 points or more. Pick: Ole Miss -31
ULM at No. 1 Texas
We don't have to wait until 2025, because Arch Manning Madness has already arrived. Quinn Ewers is out with an abdominal strain, paving the way for Manning to continue wowing us after his pitch-perfect debut last week when he scored five touchdowns, including a 67-yard run, the longest by a Texas QB since Vince Young (2005). Give ULM some respect, however. First-year coach Bryant Vincent beat his old program, UAB, after the Warhawks were the laughingstock of the Sun Belt last season. ULM is much more competitive but this will still be a showcase for Manning. Pick: ULM +48
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 4? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread -- all from a proven computer model that has returned over $2,000 in profit since its inception -- and find out.
