No. 10 Texas Tech was a heavy favorite to win the Big 12 for the second straight season after cruising to the College Football Playoff last year. Through five weeks, though, returns have been decidedly mixed.
The Red Raiders rank outside of the top 10 of the Big 12 in both offense and defense. They're 12th in yards per play and are tied for worst in the conference with six interceptions. Their only ranked matchup at home came down to a stopped two-point conversion against Houston.
Texas Tech is sitting at 5-0 in consecutive seasons for the first time in program history. These are champagne problems for a program that has rarely contended for conference championships across its history.
"Do I want to be more explosive on offense? Do we want to be more efficient on offense? One hundred percent," McGuire said. "And we have to find ways to do that. But I'm going to take the win every time."
But after winning the Big 12 and recording the program's first AP Top 10 finish in history, more is expected. What's gone wrong in Lubbock?
Diminished defense
Last season, Texas Tech absolutely nailed its star-studded transfer class. David Bailey, Romello Height and Lee Hunter were All-America candidates along the defensive line. Tight end Terrance Carter Jr. and cornerback Brice Pollock were elite level performers.
It was a once in a lifetime series of hits for the recruiting staff in Lubbock. But while they swung for the fences again, replicating the hit rate was no easy feat.
Through the first five weeks, Texas Tech ranks a stunning No. 73 in total defense and ninth in the Big 12 in yards per play defense. The secondary has gotten picked on consistently to the tune of the No. 127 passing defense, a miserable start. After finishing No. in sacks last season, the Red Raiders are at No. 69, projected to nearly half their mark from last season.
There's plenty of blame to go around, but the underwhelming defensive line transfers stand tall. None of superstar transfers Adam Trick, Mateen Ibirogba or Trey White have recorded more than one sack. Jamond Mathis has 2.5, but they all came against Abilene Christian. The linebackers continue to be a strength of the team, especially returners Ben Roberts and John Curry, but transfer Austin Romaine hasn't lived up to expectations outside of a couple of pick-sixes against Sam Houston.
Texas Tech wanted to build its identity as a hard-nosed defensive team under Joey McGuire, but the unit is underperforming and putting more pressure on the offense. Replicating last year's No. 3 total defense was never realistic, but the collapse has been notable.
Hammond's inconsistency
Texas Tech invested a significant amount of money in the transfer portal to land five-star quarterback Brendan Sorsby. While the staff had faith in sophomore Will Hammond, the Hutto native was coming off a torn ACL last October, and the staff wanted insurance.
Through five games, Hammond looks the part of a talented quarterback still adjusting after an offseason away from football. Hammond has thrown a touchdown in every game and completed 68% of his passes, but also has five touchdowns to five interceptions as he questions his eyes. Three of the picks came in a sequence against lowly Sam Houston.
Hammond has shown several flashes over the course of two years. Against Utah last season, he came off the bench for an injured Behren Morton and helped lead a massive second-half run to win 34-10. This year against Houston, Hammond stepped up with the best game of his career, shaking off an early interception to throw for 257 yards and a touchdown in a win.
His tentative nature has appeared in the numbers. In four of his games, Hammond's passes have hovered around a middling eight yards per attempt. Against Houston, when the program's back was against the wall, Hammond delivered 11.6 yards per attempt.
The offensive line has been disappointing through the first couple of weeks, and the running game has not delivered despite three talented running backs. But ultimately, Hammond has to create gravity with the passing game to give the offense a chance to find its footing.
Time to grow
Texas Tech received fair criticism for a middling nonconference schedule, which makes their overall schedule one of the easiest among contenders. At the time, No. 22 Houston was the only ranked team on their schedule, though Oklahoma State has risen to No. 18 and Arizona is flirting with a national ranking.
Oregon State set off some alarm bells when they challenged the Red Raiders in a 35-24 game, but that win is aging better. The Beavers are up to No. 37 in the CBS 138 and have two certified superstars in quarterback Braden Atkinson and wide receiver Jesse Legree. Both of their losses are to ranked Big 12 teams.
Following a bye, Texas Tech plays Arizona State and, on the road, a hostile Cincinnati squad in the coming weeks. Then it's home games against Arizona and West Virginia before the road trip to Stillwater, which could be the most difficult game of the year.
The schedule allows the Red Raiders to grow while remaining in contention for the Big 12 title game. But unless improvement comes, Texas Tech could quickly find itself on the outside looking in.
