The Six Pack: Alabama vs. Wisconsin, Arizona vs. Kansas State among top Week 3 college football picks

It's not how you start, it's how you finish.

That's what I'm telling myself this week because I've left myself no other choice. The Six Pack went 2-4 in the first two weeks to get off to a 4-8 start, so I've dug myself a nasty little hole. Thankfully, there's a lot of season left to play and plenty of time to dig our way out.

This week's slate of games doesn't offer the same high-profile matchups from the first two weeks of the season, but I do see some spots where I'm not sure the market has caught up to how teams have performed thus far. What if we go out there and win every bet for the rest of the year?

Odds via SportsLine consensus

Games of the Week

No. 20 Arizona at No. 14 Kansas State (Friday): It's not often the best game of the week is played on Friday, but don't be surprised if that's the case here. Like last week's game between Utah and Baylor, this will not count as a Big 12 conference game; it was scheduled as a nonconference game before Arizona joined the league and will remain that way.

So, it's an opportunity for the Big 12 to get a big nonconference win against a ranked Power Four school!

Arizona looked mediocre against Northern Arizona last week, but I'm not overly concerned by the performance. The Wildcats were banged up and resting players they probably don't against stronger competition. Meanwhile, Kansas State narrowly avoided an upset at the hands of Tulane. The biggest question marks I have about this game involve K-State QB Avery Johnson, who is a tremendous athlete hasn't really been utilized as such to this point. Rather, he's been a drop-back passer. Has that been by design to keep it off tape for later, or is it how K-State is trying to use him? I suspect the former. Whatever the case, neither defense has been solid against the pass. If it becomes an air battle, I have a lot more faith in what Arizona has with Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan than I do the Wildcats. The Pick: Arizona +7.5 (-110)

No. 4 Alabama at Wisconsin: I'm learning from my mistakes. When I saw the Texas-Michigan line that originally posted last week, I thought, "Oh man, Texas is going to smoke them." Then, I made the mistake of digging too far into the numbers and went against my gut, and we all saw what happened. I'm not doing it again. To be clear, I know the Crimson Tide have that No. 4 next to their name, but I don't think this team is anywhere near as good as Texas. However, I have little faith in anything I've seen from Wisconsin.

The Badgers have played Western Michigan (which lost 56-0 to Ohio State in its other game) and South Dakota (whose lone win came against something called Northern State). Against those two juggernauts, the Badgers offense averaged 0.13 EPA/play (No. 60), with a hideously low explosive play rate of 6.0% (No. 132). If Wisconsin hasn't been able to move the ball consistently against bad teams, what realistic expectations can we have for it against Alabama? The Tide offense has been boom-or-bust, but defensively, this team has allowed 0.52 points per possession (No. 9) with a 75.3% success rate (No. 3). I think we'll see another SEC team head north and beat up a Big Ten team this weekend. The Pick: Alabama -15.5 (-112)

Lock of the Week

Indiana at UCLA: This game could be a test case for the difference between hiring a new coach with plenty of coaching experience and one with none. Indiana has come firing out the gate under Curt Cignetti, outscoring opponents 108-10. On the other hand, UCLA struggled to get past Hawaii 16-13 and had the kind of procedural miscues you'd expect from a new coach and staff. While UCLA is better than either of the teams Indiana has faced, and the Bruins are likely to improve following a bye while playing at home, I don't think the spread in this game is accurate.

I won't sit here and tell you I believe the Hoosiers are an elite team that's going to run roughshod over the rest of their schedule, but based on what I've seen and what the numbers say, there's good reason to believe there's a gap between Indiana and the teams at the bottom of the Big Ten. Perhaps their first road game will prove problematic, but I trust Cignetti knows how to prepare a team for this kind of game, so I'm not worried about it. I'd take Indiana at anything under a touchdown. The Pick: Indiana -3 (-110)

Tigers of the Week

No. 24 Boston College at No. 6 Missouri: We're two games into the season, and Missouri hasn't allowed a point. Now, it needs to be pointed out that Mizzou has played Murray State and Buffalo, but if you're doing that, you should also point out that the Tigers have outscored opponents 89-0 while not going near 100%. Luther Burden and Theo Wease have only played 158 snaps between them in those games. Backup QB Drew Pyne has played 45 snaps already. The Tigers have treated their first two games like preseason games because they could.

Perhaps that'll leave them a little rusty for this game, but I doubt it. Boston College is ranked thanks to its 28-13 win at Florida State, but in reality, this isn't the 24th-best team the Tigers are going to face. Boston College had a preseason win total of 4.5 for a reason, and even if you want to argue it was too low (and I believe it was), the gap between these teams is much more significant than the rankings suggest. Based on my pick, it's obvious I feel the same way about the spread. The Pick: Missouri -16.5 (-112)

Under of the Week

No. 1 Georgia at Kentucky: This one is all about tempo. Kentucky has averaged the fewest plays per game in the country this season, but that stat is skewed quite a bit by their opener against Southern Miss being called in the third quarter. Still, the Wildcats are rarely in a hurry to snap the football, and if you watched their offense against South Carolina last week, it's not hard to see why. Georgia has not had any games called early, but it plays slowly as well. The 'Dawgs and their opponents average 110.5 snaps per game, which ranks No. 131 in the nation. As has been the case for a while, Georgia is more than happy to get an early lead and go boa constrictor, slowly suffocating you until the clock strikes zero.

I expect that's what will happen here. I have concerns about Kentucky turnovers leading to easy Georgia points that could hurt us, but hopefully, that possibility is offset by the chances of Kentucky's offense scoring points of its own. The 'Dawgs have a bye next week and then play Alabama on the road, so their second-half priority will probably be getting out of the game healthy. The Pick: Under 45.5 (-115)

Team Total of the Week

New Mexico at Auburn: We have a perfect storm here. Hugh Freeze and Auburn have caught all kinds of hell this week following a 21-14 home loss to Cal. Fans hate QB Payton Thorne and Freeze's offense. Auburn is in dire need of a great offensive performance to settle everybody down, and in steps a team that should provide plenty of chances to do it.

I'm a big Bronco Mendenhall fan, and I believe he'll be successful at New Mexico. This team already looks better than it was expected to, but it's the offense exceeding expectations. The Lobos defense remains dreadful. New Mexico ranks last in the nation in points allowed per drive (4.0) and explosive rate allowed (20.59%), and it is only slightly better in success rate (No. 128) and EPA per snap (No. 13). Oh, and the Lobos play at a quick pace, meaning there are more snaps in the game. The package may be small, but the point total won't be. The Pick: Auburn Over 44.5 (-115)

Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 3? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread -- all from a proven computer model that has returned over $2,000 in profit since its inception -- and find out.