If it wasn't already obvious after reading this column over the last decade, I am somewhat of a data nerd. So when I see people brag about how competitive their conference is or how much parity exists in a league, I try to find out whether or not that's accurate. It helps that I have easy access to the information through this job, which saves me hours of doing it myself, too.
This year, there's been a lot of talk about how the Big 12 doesn't have tiers the same way other leagues do. It's a theory reflected in the fact that BYU, at 7-0 and ranked No. 11 in the AP Poll, is a 2.5-point betting underdog on the road against a 3-4 UCF team that's lost four straight this weekend. Meanwhile, in the Big Ten, No. 1 Oregon is hosting No. 20 Illinois, and the Ducks are 21.5-point favorites, according to sports betting apps.
Those contrasting lines and the fact we're about halfway through conference play made this week a good time to look at just how much parity exists in each league. It turns out we're all right! The Big 12 is the most competitive from a spread standpoint. What may surprise you is which conference has the largest average point spread in league play.
| Conference | Average Point Spread in Conference Play |
|---|---|
Conference USA | 12.60 |
SEC | 11.24 |
Big Ten | 10.51 |
The American | 9.98 |
FBS Average | 9.22 |
ACC | 9.18 |
Mountain West | 8.34 |
Sun Belt | 7.98 |
MAC | 7.72 |
Big 12 | 5.88 |
Conference USA holding the largest average spread may not have been your prediction, but it makes sense. There is a considerable gap between the teams at the top of the league and those at the bottom.
What kind of impact will this information have on this week's picks? None! Sometimes it's just fun to learn things!
All college football betting odds below provided via FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars.
Games of the Week
No. 20 Illinois at No. 1 Oregon: The Ducks have turned it up a notch after sputtering on offense behind a banged-up offensive line early in the year. Dillon Gabriel looks more like the quarterback Oregon thought it was getting, and it's led to a huge win over Ohio State and was followed up with a clinical dissection of Purdue last week. Now the Ducks return home to face a surprising 6-1 Illinois team that's fresh off a win over Michigan.
As an Illini fan, I harbor no delusions about this spot. Oregon's a three-touchdown favorite for good reason, but I'm not nearly as interested in the spread here. I can't help but think back to the approach Illinois took the last time it was on the road against a top-tier team in Penn State. The Illini defense was happy to let Penn State run the ball and take away the big play in the passing game. The intent was to shorten the game as much as possible, keep it close, and see if you could capitalize on some mistakes. The result was a 21-7 loss. I can see a similar script where the Illini try to keep it close and see if they can force a few turnovers. It's the kind of game that Oregon either wins in a rout or finds itself in a precarious spot come the fourth quarter. So, when it comes to the spread, I don't see an obvious play. However, whether it's a 42-10 kind of game or a 21-17 affair, both finish below this total. The only outcome that would truly shock me is a shootout. The Pick: Under 54.5 (-108) via FanDuel
No. 8 LSU at No. 14 Texas A&M: LSU opened the year with a loss to USC and has won every game since. Now the Tigers are on the road looking to extend that streak against a Texas A&M team that feels like it has four different personalities. There was the horrible team we saw in the opening loss to Notre Dame, the Marcel Reed Aggies, the Conner Weigman is Him version against Mizzou, and then last week Weigman threw two interceptions against Mississippi State. Who do we get this week? I don't know!
What I do know is that during this win streak, LSU has lacked explosive plays and barely even attempts to run the football. I also know that LSU struggles finishing drives, averaging 4.45 points per red zone possession (64th). In my opinion, that's where the lack of a run game hurts the Tigers. I don't think A&M wants to get into a shootout here, particularly because Weigman is unpredictable, and the LSU defense has taken a considerable step forward over the last month. This one should be tight, and it could be a little rock-fighty too. The Pick: Under 54 (-110) via Fanatics
Lock of the Week
No. 12 Notre Dame at No. 24 Navy: Call me a traitor if you must, but I'm about to turn my back on the United States of America. Do I love the fact both Army and Navy are undefeated and ranked in late October? You're damn right I do, but it's time to have a come-to-Touchdown-Jesus chat about Navy. I'm a firm "it's not who you play but how you play" guy, and Navy's played very well. That said, who you play does matter a little, and Navy hasn't played anybody! Memphis is the best team the Mids have gone against, and the Tigers are an average FBS team in my power ratings. Notre Dame is not. It's in that top-10 range.
Defensively, an option attack like Navy's is something Notre Dame sees every season. It's prepared for it. On the other side of the ball, I don't trust Navy' defensive personnel to slow down the Irish offense. The gameplan the Mids must follow is the same one Northern Illinois executed perfectly to pull off an upset. If it happened once, it could happen again. But the Irish turned the ball over with two interceptions in that game. I don't think they'll ask Riley Leonard to win this one with his arm because they won't need to. The Pick: Notre Dame -12.5 (-115) via BetMGM
Underdog of the Week
Michigan State at Michigan: Everybody seems to understand Michigan is bad this season, but the power ratings don't get it yet. The Wolverines were favored on the road last week against a better Illinois team and lost by 14. They're lucky they didn't lose by more. Now, a team that has been favored in four games this season and is yet to cover as a favorite once is favored again. The Wolverines are 1-6 ATS this season, and the lone cover was as a 4-point betting underdog at home to a USC team that's now 3-4 on the season.
Meanwhile, Michigan State might be figuring things out. The Spartans followed a 3-0 start with three straight losses, but two of those were to Ohio State and Oregon. The other was on the road with a young, inexperienced quarterback. That quarterback, Aidan Chiles, looks to be tapping into his potential. After making far too many reckless throws early this season, Chiles looked calm, cool and collected against an Iowa defense that typically does a great job confusing opposing signal callers. He took the plays that were there rather than trying to force the ones that weren't. Can he do it for the second straight week, this time on the road? Maybe not, but even if he does regress a bit, do you trust the Michigan offense to score enough to cover this spread? The Pick: Michigan State +4 (-110) via Fanatics
Under of the Week
Oklahoma State at Baylor: Listen, I'm sorry there are so many unders this week, but I'm ditching the Iowa over train for a weekend because every game featuring Northwestern seems impervious to points. This contest won't look anything like that, but the total still looks a bit too high to me. I know the defensive numbers for these teams aren't incredible, but I've found the point total has more to do with the strength of the offenses -- and neither one of these has been great. Yes, Baylor surprised us all with a 59-35 win over Texas Tech last week, but it was an outlier performance the Bears have shown no capability of repeating.
Neither offense is particularly explosive, nor are they excellent at finishing drives. To its credit, Oklahoma State scores 4.73 points per red zone possession, which ranks 34th nationally. The problem is only 29.55% of Oklahoma State's possessions reach the red zone (75th). Baylor gets there 25.84% of the time (99th) and scores 4.3 points per trip (75th). It's not often you see games between teams that don't have a lot of explosive plays and can't finish drives break the 65-point mark. The Pick: Under 65 (-108) via DraftKings
Fade of the Week
Southern Miss at James Madison: The funny thing about James Madison's surprising 28-14 loss to Georgia Southern last week isn't that it was an upset few saw coming. It hardly made sense considering how the game went. James Madison had a plus-four turnover differential in the loss! No other losing team in the country last week had one better than plus-2. The Dukes just couldn't get anything going offensively, and it was a performance very out of line with what they've done all season.
Now they're at home against a Southern Miss team that fired its coach, Will Hall, this week. The Eagles had been a team I've been happy to fade this season because they've looked non-competitive at times, and this doesn't strike me as a situation where you see a new coach bounce. It was never a question of the coach. It's the team. Now it's catching James Madison at the absolute worst time because the Dukes have no margin for error left in the Sun Belt race. The Pick: James Madison -24 (-110) via Caesars
| Bets | Last Week | Season | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
Games of the Week | 1-1 | 9-7 | +0.39 |
Lock of the Week | 0-1 | 4-4 | -0.42 |
Overall | 3-3 | 23-25 | -4.31 |
SportsLine's proven computer model is calling for five outright upsets in Week 9 of college football. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks for every game from the model that simulates each game 10,000 times.