After early-season losses to Houston and Ohio State, Oklahoma was an early scratch from the Big 12 playoff picture. No Big 12 team has gone undefeated in conference play since the expansion of the conference schedule to a nine-game round-robin format, and even if the Sooners went 9-0, they would face an uphill battle crashing the College Football Playoff with two losses.
A dominant road win at West Virginia has Oklahoma 8-0 in conference play, with two weeks to wait until a winner-take-all battle with Oklahoma State in Norman on Dec. 3. The Big 12 may be "psychologically disadvantaged" by not having a conference title game, but Oklahoma has a psychological advantage by getting to host a de facto Big 12 title game on the same weekend that the rest of the Power Five conference title contenders will be playing at a neutral site.
The CFP Selection Committee hasn't named many qualities it values, but conference championships are one of them. That "conference championship bump" in the rankings is what got Ohio State into the playoff in 2014, and it's what Sooners fans are banking on for their slim, but still alive, playoff hopes.
The AP voters don't have a say in the CFP Rankings, but beating a top-10 team on the road should be good enough for Oklahoma to jump Washington. The Huskies took care of business against Arizona State at home, as expected, and have an easier path to the playoff, even if we think they fall behind the Sooners in Sunday's new college football polls.
Here's how we think the AP Top 25 will look Sunday:
1. Alabama (Previous AP Top 25 ranking -- 1): Nick Saban seemed quite displeased with the Tide's performance against Chattanooga. The Mocs are a strong FCS team and showed a ton of hard-hitting fight but never had a real shot to win in Tuscaloosa.
2. Ohio State (2): What if Michigan State had kicked the extra point instead of going for two (and failing)? What if Tyler O'Connor got Michigan State in field-goal range instead of throwing an interception? Ohio State's defense gets the passing grade in a hard-fought 17-16 win that will keep the Buckeyes at No. 2.
3. Michigan (4): Two quick De'Veon Smith touchdowns late in the third quarter were the final scores of the game in a wintry mix of a 20-10 win for the Wolverines. The result will shade how close this game was to a playoff-busting loss for Jim Harbaugh, but survival in the snow puts all the pressure on Ohio State to defend home turf in a colossal edition of their rivalry next weekend.
4. Clemson (5): Louisville loses, Clemson moves up. The Tigers don't want to test the CFP committee by losing to South Carolina and then winning the ACC title, so it's best to just take care of business, style points be damned.
5. Oklahoma (8): The Sooners got a scare from West Virginia in the second half once the snow slowed, but holding on for a victory will be enough to get them up in the top five.
6. Wisconsin (6): Right now, there may not be a hotter team in the Big Ten than Wisconsin. It doesn't matter what team wins the Big Ten East, it will have its hands full in the conference title game against the Badgers as long as they can win against Minnesota in Camp Randall next weekend.
7. Washington (7): Chris Petersen will have just one week to prepare for arguably the biggest game of his career since accepting the job at Washington. One year ago, he had to win the Apple Cup just to be bowl eligible; now, it's all on the line -- Pac-12 North, playoff hopes -- when the Huskies show up in Pullman next week.
8. Penn State (9): Red zone troubles kept Penn State fans on edge in the first half, but a 39-0 shutout is just what the committee needs to see heading into the final weekend of play in the Big Ten East. "Control the controllables" will be the battle cry as the Nittany Lions hope for a win against Michigan State and a Buckeyes victory in Columbus to send Penn State to the Big Ten title game.
9. Colorado (12): Mike Leach guessed, in interviews leading up to the game, that Colorado's veteran leadership could show up big against the Cougars on Saturday, and that was just the case as Phillip Lindsay provided the balance needed to put the Buffs one win away from the Pac-12 title game.
10. Oklahoma State (13): A stellar win as a road underdog puts Oklahoma State in a spot to win the Big 12 title at Oklahoma on Dec. 3. If the Cowboys win and become conference champions, the controversial loss to Central Michigan becomes the central talking point for the committee. I guess that's exactly what Mike Gundy wants given the lack of transparency in the selection process.
11. Western Michigan (14): Mayhem in the Mountain West has opened the door for the Broncos to make a move into serious Cotton Bowl contention. Lose one game and they're probably out, but right now things are looking up for P.J. Fleck and the boat he rows.
12. Louisville (3): Losing to Houston won't be too damning to the Cards' poll ranking, but it totally eliminated them from playoff contention.
13. Southern California (15): There has to be something really rewarding for Clay Helton in the victory over UCLA. Jim Mora won his first three meetings in the rivalry after getting hired. Helton has claimed the past two. The Trojans rode their gifted roster to a seventh straight win and will likely move up at least one spot in the polls.
14. Florida (21): There's something really cool about seeing the Florida defense rise up with its season on the line at LSU. That group has not only anchored the team's success during the last two SEC East title campaigns but is currently made up of nearly as many backups as starters. LSU (projected by us to drop out of the rankings) and Ed Orgeron saw a lot of opportunities go out the window when the Gators held strong at the goal line in Baton Rouge.
15. West Virginia (10): The Mountaineers will slide after a loss to Oklahoma, but a two-loss résumé is still good enough to keep them in the polls in a decent spot.
16. Florida State (17): Dalvin Cook went absolutely bananas at Syracuse, breaking Warrick Dunn's school rushing record in the process.
17. Auburn (18): Beating Alabama A&M won't move the Tigers up too much. Beating Alabama next week would, though.
18. Nebraska (19): Even with Tommy Armstrong Jr. sidelined by a hamstring injury, it didn't seem too tough for the Cornhuskers to get it done against Maryland.
19. Boise State (22): San Diego State didn't even have to play Boise State to knock their MW title hopes back a bit in their loss to Wyoming. Boise State needs New Mexico to beat Wyoming to ensure a spot in the MW title game and keep their Cotton Bowl hopes alive.
20. Texas A&M (23): Next weekend's matchup with LSU should be interesting given the current state of the Tigers as the Aggies hold onto the slimming chances of a favorable bowl bid (Sugar Bowl isn't totally out of the question) if they finish as the top-ranked three-loss team in the SEC on Selection Sunday.
21. Houston (NR): Tom Herman gets to claim wins against Florida State, Oklahoma and Louisville on that growing and impressive coaching résumé, but so does defensive coordinator Todd Orlando. In each of those wins, Houston's defense has been the difference-maker in closing the talent gap against Power Five opponents.
22. Minnesota (NR): Did you know Minnesota is 8-3? I think a lot of college football fans don't realize that Minnesota is 8-3. If AP voters are reaching for options at the end of the ballot, this three-loss team from the best (or second-best) conference in college football will look like a great option.
23. Virginia Tech (NR): Beating Notre Dame didn't do anything for the Hokies' hopes to win the ACC championship -- that comes next weekend against Virginia and in the title game against Clemson in Orlando -- but it's noticeable enough to get the AP voters to slide them into one of the open spots at the end of the rankings.
24. Utah (11): Out of the Pac-12 South race with a loss to Oregon, Utah will have a huge drop in the rankings Sunday. But while the Utes are out of the race, that doesn't mean they won't impact it with a chance to play spoiler for Colorado next weekend in Boulder.
25. Washington State (20): The committee could drop the Cougars from their rankings, but the AP voters aren't likely to penalize Washington State too much for losing on the road against a top-15 team.
Dropped out: LSU (16), San Diego State (24), Troy (25)