2026 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft: Rotisserie format puts the squeeze on corner infielders

You can tell this was our first mock draft since the release of my initial Sleepers and Breakouts, because I was priced out of all of them.

What makes this feat remarkable is that I mostly based my selections on where those players are normally drafted. They have a price, established by NFBC ADP, and I like them at that price. But now, it seems, everyone else does, too ... right after I declared it to the world.

Did I say the feat was remarkable? I actually meant suspicious. Yes, they're after me, lucky charms.

A few examples (using January NFBC ADP):

• Ozzie Albies went 93rd when he normally goes 165th.
• Bryan Reynolds went 115th when he normally goes 193rd.
• Bubba Chandler went 124th when he normally goes 160th.
• Jonathan Aranda went 151st when he normally goes 184th.
• Carter Jensen went 172nd when he normally goes 194th
• Daulton Varsho went 173rd when he normally goes 198th.
• Marcus Semien went 177th when he normally goes 245th.
• Ramon Laureano went 178th when he normally goes 218th.
• Kazuma Okamoto went 180th when he normally goes 238th.
• Kris Bubic went 184th when he normally goes 226th.

You see? It's a grand conspiracy.

OK, so I'm not actually so self-absorbed that I think a couple articles of mine can reorder all of drafting precedent. The actual lesson to take from this unfortunate series of events is that ADP, which stands for average draft position, is merely that, an average. It weighs heavily on all Fantasy Baseball analysis, particularly this time of year, because it's available early and provides a handy basis for comparison, but there's real danger in interpreting it as gospel. You don't actually know what anyone in your league is going to do. All it takes is one person with a predilection, and ADP is out the window.

Now, you may say that if someone is willing to reach multiple rounds for a favored player, it undermines the value that made the player favored in the first place, and that's true up to a point. But if you're counting on getting that favored player at that favored price and pass over other promising alternatives in the meantime, well, there's no turning back the clock.

That's what kept happening to me in this draft. "Oh, I don't need a corner infielder yet because there's still Aranda and Okamoto." Well, there was. "Oh, I don't need to take a fifth starting pitcher here because Bubic is always available after Pick 200." Not this time. My close monitoring of ADP convinced me I knew more than I actually did, which led me to "save" spots for players I was sure I could get later. But you can never be so sure, and I'll add that the further removed your league is from NFBC, the less sure you can be.

I drafted with a bunch of industry people who are likely as well-versed in NFBC ADP as I am. Didn't matter. Perhaps the clearest evidence for this is that Ben Rice, whose ADP has been pushed into Round 3 in recent NFBC drafts, pricing him out of the breakout conversation for me, went at a perfectly reasonable 64th overall. Now, there's the breakout I should have drafted!

So yeah, not my best work. Here's who we have to blame:

1) Scott White, CBS Sports (@CBSScottWhite)
2) Chris Mitchell, FantasyData (@CJMitch73)
3) Doc Eisenhauer, Scout the Statline (@DocEisenhauer)
4) Mike Nelson, Fantasy Baseball Now (@FantasyBaseBNow)
5) Sean Martin, Fantasy Baseball Now (@Sean_Martin77)
6) Phil Ponebshek, Patton & Company
7) Jake Wiener, Prospects1500 (@GatorSosa)
8) Jeremy Heist, Fantistics Fantasy (@heistjm)
9) Sean Millerick, Marlin Maniac (@miasportsminute)
10) Nick Fox, NBC Sports (@CT_FOX)
11) B_Don, Razzball (@RazzBDon)
12) Anthony Kates, SportsEthos (@akfantasybb)

A couple more quick thoughts:

• I mentioned missing out on Aranda for my corner infield spot. Truth is, I also missed out on him at first base, even though my greatest category concern at the time was batting average, which would have made him the perfect pick. I eventually settled on Spencer Torkelson, a far less perfect pick, but then repeatedly made that same mistake at corner infield, always believing there was another upside play to fall back on -- be it Okamoto or Sal Stewart or Kyle Manzardo -- before winding up with Alec Bohm there. This draft marked the first time I was shut out of the Matt Olson, Bryce Harper, Rafael Devers, and Freddie Freeman quartet in Rounds 4-5, and I learned that, when that happens, I need to be extra conscientious about filling my corner field spot. Partly because of how weak third base is, there simply aren't enough quality corner infielders to go around in a league that uses standard Rotisserie lineups, not even a 12-teamer.
• Mr. Irrelevant is worth singling out in this draft -- which, notably, was only for starting lineups, no bench spots -- because he's anything but irrelevant. Carson Benge is a top prospect in the Mets system with the inside track on the starting left field job. If we had more than just an inkling he would come away with that job, he might go 150 picks earlier, and there are a number of hitting prospects in that same boat right now. Konnor Griffin (171), Owen Caissie (220), and Justin Crawford (270) -- not to mention Kevin McGonigle, JJ Wetherholt, and Colt Emerson, who went undrafted this time -- have all been floated as possibilities to make their respective teams' opening day roster, which historically would have earned prospects of their caliber more draft love than this. I think the number of viable prospect targets is so overwhelmingly high right now that it's making everyone fearful of picking the wrong one, and you can only make that gamble once in a draft, realistically. Hopefully, spring training will help narrow the prospect targets to the 2-3 most likely, bringing their cost to a more appropriate level.

There's a lot more to dig into here, so have at it.