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68 days until Opening Day ... 

"You can't win your league in the first round, but you can lose it," is one of those Fantasy sports truisms that is so widely accepted that nobody ever really questions it. It isn't true, of course – I have seen people win leagues while getting next to nothing from multiple early-round picks – but it gets at something a lot of Fantasy players and analysts believe: It's best to play it as safe as you can with your most important picks.

I don't necessarily agree with that – every team starts the season in a 12-team league with a roughly 92% chance of not winning the league, and your goal should be maximizing your chances of winning, not your chances of avoiding 9th place. But it is worthwhile to consider how things could go wrong for your most important picks, even if I don't think it should be the only thing you factor into your decision-making process.

With that in mind, today's newsletter is all about what could go wrong for your first-round picks. I'm looking at the players with an ADP inside of the first 15 picks in NFBC drafts and trying to see how things could go wrong. Besides injuries, of course, which could derail any player's season in Spring Training without warning. We're trying to look beyond the ways things can go wrong for any player, and instead try to identify the ways things could go wrong specifically for these players.

(Although, of course, not every player's injury risk is equal, so we can't ignore that entirely. Especially when three of the first 12 players taken on average in these drafts.)

Surely, most of these players won't have their worst-case scenario come to fruition. And just as surely, some of these players will have something go wrong that we can't even see coming – like when Mookie Betts lost 15 pounds a week before the season and spent most of last year trying to get back to full health. But it's worth at least trying to identify the possible land mines that could set your team back after just one pick. That's what we're looking for today with the 14 players with an ADP inside of the top 15 right now.

Before we get to that, however, some brief thoughts on Kyle Tucker's decision to sign with the Dodgers. Say what you want about the Dodgers continuing to sign every offseason's premier free agent, but it's a dream landing spot for Tucker — one that is enough to push him back into first-round contention, according to Scott White. Tucker has dealt with a few freak injuries in recent years that have kept him from truly living up to his fullest potential, but if he can stay on the field and avoid any undiagnosed fractures, he's set up perfectly for a career season. 

It's hard to find a case against him for 2026 now. Here's the case against 14 other first-rounders:

Bust-case scenarios

Shohei Ohtani, DH, LAD

Coming off consecutive 50-homer seasons (with a 59-steal season in there), Ohtani is the premier five-category superstar in Fantasy.

How it could go wrong: What if he just can't hold up to what the Dodgers ask of him? 

For one thing, there's just the inherent injury risk for someone trying to hit every day and pitch every sixth day or so. I don't want every answer here to just be, "He could get injured," but it's an ever-present risk for Ohtani, who has suffered multiple serious elbow injuries while pitching, plus a shoulder injury while running the bases. I also think he's probably just a little overrated as the No. 1 overall player because I'm not sure he's actually a full five-category difference maker – Ohtani stole just nine bases in 86 games after he returned to the rotation last season. If he's just a 15-steal guy, shouldn't you just buy Aaron Judge, the better hitter of the two, at the top of your drafts? 

Aaron Judge, OF, NYY

In addition to being the best power hitter in baseball, Judge has hit .311 or better in three of the past four seasons, with only the punchless Luis Arraez beating him in that category over the past four seasons combined. 

How it could go wrong: What if he starts aging faster than expected? 

He's going to turn 34 in April, he's one of the largest human beings who has ever played professional baseball, and we've already seen Judge struggle to stay healthy over the years. I know, I said we weren't going to focus on injury risk, but it's hard to avoid when: A) These two top hitters are just so absurdly dominant; and B) The injury risks for both of them are very real. In Judge's case, injury isn't the only risk, as there will be some sort of age-related decline coming at some point, even if we haven't really seen it yet. The risk of it happening in 2026 doesn't seem especially high, but it's not zero, especially as Judge's average exit velocity has slid from 3 mph better than anyone else in 2023 to merely among the very best in baseball in 2025. 

Bobby Witt Jr., SS, KC

Witt was just a little bit worse at everything in 2025 than during his breakout 2024, but that only meant he was one of the 10 best players in Fantasy instead of one of the three best. This might be the actual best five-category player in the game. 

How it could go wrong: What if he can't recapture his 2024 form? 

When we're talking about the consensus No. 3 player in basically every draft, the difference between actually being a top-three player and being more like a top-10 player matters. In Witt's case, his outlier batting average from 2024 proved unsustainable while his homer total dropped by nearly 10. The latter bit should be helped by the Royals moving their fences in at Kauffman Stadium, though that might actually hurt his batting average on the whole, as few doubles and triples fall in. Given Witt's combination of youth and exceptional quality of contact, it's hard to make a strong case against him, except that he might just not be quite as dominant a hitter as some of the other guys in this range. Add in that he's in the worst lineup of the elite players, and while I don't see a particularly low floor here, it's not hard to see a world where he performs more like a late-first-rounder than an early one. 

Juan Soto, OF, NYM

Long a four-category stalwart, Soto emerged as one of the most aggressive baserunners in baseball in 2025, improving his steals total from seven to 38. 

How it could go wrong: What if he isn't really a base-stealer? 

He's probably not going to steal 38 bases again. He might not even be a good bet for 20-plus steals, especially with the loss of first base coach Antoan Richardson, who received a lot of credit for Soto's emergence as a base-stealing threat. If you can't rely on Soto to be a contributor in steals … well, he still had 43 homers and 225 combined runs and RBI last season, so it's not like he needs the steals to be a dominant force. This is another one where it's hard to see a truly disastrous scenario, but it's not hard to see one where he's just mildly disappointing. Especially with so many question marks around the Mets lineup as things currently stand. 

(Of course, signing Kyle Tucker would be a heck of a way to actually answer those questions.) 

Jose Ramirez, 3B, CLE

Ramirez is rarely never the best player in baseball, but he's almost never worse than the fifth-best, either. 

How it could go wrong: What if he can't keep squeezing blood from a stone? 

Here's another one where it's hard to project much worse than a top-20 or so finish, except in Ramirez's case, he's already 33 years old, which is right in the range where you wouldn't be surprised to see his decline start. Ramirez has done a brilliant job squeezing borderline elite power production from pretty middling raw pop, thanks to his outrageous bat control. But it doesn't leave him with a ton of room for error if the skills start to deteriorate. We haven't seen any real signs of that yet – if anything, his underlying numbers were actually a little better in 2025 than in 2024 – but betting against decline as a player enters their mid-30s is always a losing bet eventually. And Ramirez's lineup generally won't help him out much, giving 

Tarik Skubal, SP, DET

Consecutive Cy Young Awards kind of speak for themselves, don't they? 

How it could go wrong: He's a pitcher. 

Skubal is worth a first-round pick. He's the best pitcher in baseball, and he has thrown the second-most innings of any pitcher over the past two seasons. Since he came back from elbow surgery in 2023, he hasn't had so much as an injury scare, but … he's a pitcher. Injuries are part of the deal, but it's not just injuries we have to be concerned about. There's also the tendency for pitchers to just stop being good overnight without any real reason. I don't expect that to happen with Skubal, and he seems like an especially good bet heading into a contract year on a team that should still be competitive. But pitchers have a tendency to go from "essentially perfect" to "just barely hanging on" a lot quicker than hitters, which is why we typically don't draft them in the first round. 

Corbin Carroll, OF, ARZ

Carroll is coming off his first-ever 30-30 season, and at just 25, there could still be another level. 

How it could go wrong: Remember 2024? 

Carroll's final numbers ended up okay in 2024, as he still had 22 homers, 35 steals, and 195 combined runs and RBI, but boy was it a rocky ride to get there. He hit just .231, as an attempted swing change totally screwed up his timing and left him as an all-or-nothing power hitter who wasn't hitting for power. He solved that issue around the midway point in 2024 and remained a very good hitter in 2025, though his .259 batting average shows that there are still some issues with his swing. Carroll's well-rounded skill set insulates him from some of the downside risk, as we saw in 2024, but his skill set as a hitter feels more volatile than you'd like from a first-rounder. A sub-.250 batting average is a real possibility, and if he gives back from the quality-of-contact gains he made in 2025, we've seen how ugly things can get. 

Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, ATL

There aren't many players with a demonstrated upside as high as Judge's or Ohtani's. In fact, it might just be a list as long as Ronald Acuna's name. 

How it could go wrong: What if he just isn't that guy anymore? 

Acuna has played 144 games since his tremendous 2023 season, and he's been … fine? .275/.394/.462 with 25 homers, 112 runs, 57 RBI, and 25 steals is … really good. It's just not first-round good. He did get the power back in 2025 after recovering from a torn ACL, but he ran a lot less than we're used to, and it's fair to wonder if that's just the new norm moving forward after two torn ACLs*. Acuna also hasn't come close to replicating his incredible contact gains from 2023, and in fact, his 73.8% in-zone contact rate in 2024 was both his lowest since 2020 and nearly 10 percentage points below the league average. He still punishes the ball when he makes contact, but not quite as much as he did in 2023, while his strikeout rate increase means there are fewer balls on which he does that damage. Acuna should still be a very good player in 2025, but what if we're drafting him hoping for upside that might not longer be there? 

*The counterpoint to that: In 16 games in the Venezuelan Winter League, he already has 11 steals. If 40-plus steal upside is still one table, Acuna has top-three upside. 

Elly De La Cruz, SS, CIN

Even in a year derailed by a quad injury, De La Cruz finished with 188 combined runs and RBI, 22 homers, and 37 steals, with real growth in his skills as a hitter before the injury. 

How it could go wrong: What if it wasn't just because he was hurt?

I'm assuming that the quad injury De La Cruz played through in the second half explains much of his second-half struggles, which is why I have him ranked sixth overall, a few spots ahead of his ADP. But we're still talking about a guy who hasn't proven he can handle lefties at the MLB level (.618 OPS last season against them) and who now may not have the cushion of best-in-class speed to fall back on. If De La Cruz emerges as a legitimate force with the bat, like I expect he will, then it won't matter as much if he's not running a ton. If his bat continues to stagnate and he's more of a 35-steal guy than a 60-steal one, we're probably overdrafting him even at a relative discount from his 2024 price. 

Julio Rodriguez, OF, SEA

Rodriguez has been a source of frustration for Fantasy players, both because of his in-season inconsistency and because he hasn't quite emerged as a world-destroying monster. But those complaints can cover up the fact that he has two 30-30 seasons in his past three and is still just 25. 

How it could go wrong: What if the second-half correction never comes?

This is basically what happened in 2024, so it isn't even theoretical. Rodriguez had just a .690 at the All-Star break, and then was limited by an ankle injury in the second half, which never allowed him to make up for the slow start. "Making up for a slow start" has become an annual tradition for Rodriguez, but that injects an awful lot of risk that the regression never happens. I'm not sure we can take it as a given that Rodriguez will always struggle early in the season – it might be equally likely that he gets off to a great start and powers through a career-best year that makes him a top-five player in the league – but the inherent volatility in his profile makes him a risky bet in the first round until he proves he can do it for a whole season. 

Paul Skenes, SP, PIT

One of the most hyped draft picks in MLB history has a sub-2.00 ERA and a Cy Young Award in his first two MLB seasons. That's how you live up to the hype, ladies and gentlemen. 

How it could go wrong: He's a pitcher. 

He's a pitcher with a relatively spotless track record of health so far, but he's also a pitcher who routinely touches triple digits. There's an inherent amount of risk here that you can never get around. Now, Skenes is roughly the size of an average NFL defensive lineman, so he's got the build to be a workhorse and so far has pitched like one. But … he's a pitcher. They all get hurt eventually, even the ones who are roughly the size of an NFL defensive lineman. Will it happen in 2026? If not, Skenes should be a great pick, especially with the Pirates finally looking competitive enough that we can maybe hope for more than last year's 10 wins. But injuries are going to happen at some point. It's inevitable. If you're taking him here, you're doing so knowing you have a higher risk of this pick being ruined by injury than if you just take a hitter. 

Garrett Crochet, SP, BOS

Crochet put concerns about durability to the side, ending up leading the AL in innings while putting up a 2.59 ERA and 11.2 K/9. If there's any gap between him and Skubal, it's minuscule. 

How it could go wrong: He's a pitcher. 

I know, I sound like a broken record here, but … he's a pitcher! Crochet was a workhorse in 2025, but that's the only time we've ever seen that from him – and before the past two years, we had basically never seen him stay healthy. Clearly, he can hold up for at least one year, and at this point, I don't think it makes much sense to treat him with skepticism or assume he's significantly more likely than any other pitcher to suffer an injury. It's just that … he's a pitcher, and you aren't choosing between Crochet (or Skenes or Skubal) and any other pitcher, generally; you're choosing between one of them and one of the elite hitters, all of whom carry a lower baseline level of both performance and injury risk. This trio of starters' upside might be worth it anyway, but you've gotta know that it's an inherently higher risk strategy. 

Junior Caminero, 3B, TB

Sing it with me … "Camineeeeeeeero – HAH!" He didn't stop at 35 homers, getting all the way to 45 in his first full major-league season. As a 21-year-old. You wanna bet against that? 

How it could go wrong: The power returns to Earth, and Tropicana Field trips him up.

I mean, yeah, I might want to bet against it. Caminero hits the ball hard and makes plenty of contact, but he's not such an outlier with either skill set that you can or should project 45-plus homers every year. There aren't many players ever who you should project 45-plus homers from every year, and in Caminero's case, even if he only hits his 39 expected homers from last season, that's probably fine for this price. If he's only a 35-homer hitter in 2026? In a mediocre Rays lineup? He's probably at least a mild bust at his current price.

And then there's this factor floating around: The Rays are moving back to Tropicana Field from Steinbrenner Field. Tropicana is an indoor stadium that has had a suppressive impact on offense over the years, while Steinbrenner Field has been very hitter-friendly. The uncertainty here comes from the fact that Tropicana Field has negatively impacted some players a lot more than others – Willy Adames famously hit very poorly there because he just didn't see the ball well. That may not be an issue for Caminero, but we won't really know until we see it in action. It's a fascinating cloud hanging over one of the most exciting young players in Fantasy. 

Fernando Tatis Jr., OF, SD

Tatis hasn't reached the heights of his pre-injury/suspension form, but .268-111-25-71-32 kinda speaks for itself, doesn't it? 

How it could go wrong: What if he's just not that good anymore? 

With Tatis, I don't have too much concern that things are going to go wrong; for me, it's more a question of whether there is still a path to the kind of truly difference-making upside we used to see from him. There is inherent risk with anyone who has missed that kind of time (250 games over the past four seasons), but it seems unlikely Tatis is going to put himself in position to suffer an injury while riding a motorcycle or get suspended for PEDs again. 

So my biggest issue with Tatis' price revolves more around whether he actually has the top-five upside we're still chasing. If not, you're taking on added risk for a guy who is good, but may not be truly great anymore. Of course, I'll point to his still elite 93.3 mph average exit velocity and .370 xwOBA (compared to an actual .353 mark) as evidence that the 40-40 upside we once saw is still here waiting to be unlocked.