112 days until Opening Day …
Juan Soto is starting to narrow his list of finalists down, and that probably means the Hot Stove is about to really heat up, right? It's only been a couple of days since you last heard from me, but unfortunately, I don't have much in the way of news to update you on in that time.
Aroldis Chapman did sign with the Red Sox on a one-year deal that likely makes him the favorite to be the closer in Boston, at least to open the season. That's far from a guarantee nearly four months out from Opening Day, but unless Liam Hendriks comes out in Spring Training showcasing the 2-3 mph of lost velocity he was missing in his rehab assignment at the end of 2024, I think Chapman is going to get the first crack at it, at least.
We also had a couple of small news items for those of you in H2H points leagues to digest, first with the report from The Athletic that the Royals plan to use Kris Bubic in their rotation in 2025. Bubic had a really strong run out of the bullpen last season, striking out 32% of batters, and he was looking like a potential breakout in 2023 before undergoing Tommy John surgery, so that's a name to consider for your late-round SPaRP (Starting Pitcher as Relief Pitcher) list. Additionally, teams are apparently looking at Clay Holmes as a rotation option in free agency. I'm skeptical that'll work out, given Holmes' relatively limited arsenal, but it's a name to know, at least; for what it's worth, I'd rather make that late-round bet on Mike Soroka if he lands a rotation spot somewhere.
We also had the posting of Korean star Hyeseong Kim Wednesday. Kim has been an elite contact hitter in his time in the KBO, and he also has a strong glove and plenty of speed. But he also has a career ISO nearly half of what Ha-Seong Kim managed in Korea, and Kim has been a pretty slappy hitter in the majors, so there just might not be enough juice in his bat for Kim to be an everyday player. Someone will likely give him the chance, and his speed and batting average potential could make him a viable Fantasy option in the Andres Gimenez mold if all goes well. He's a viable late-round target for Roto leagues, at least.
Like Tuesday, we're looking at bounce-back candidates for 2025. This time around, I'm turning my sights to the pitching side of things, but I'm not as willing to plant a flag anywhere here. Pitchers are just inherently so much more uncertain than hitters, and you'll look like a fool if you try to force strong opinions out there.
So, today, I'm looking at the bounce-back chances of five of 2024's most disappointing starters. I'll make the case for why I do or don't believe they are more likely to bounce back in 2025, and I'll close with my guess as to the chances of it actually happening this season. And we'll start with one of my favorite pitchers in the game:
Buy or sell pitching bouncebacks?
Pablo Lopez, Twins
2024 results: 4.08 ERA over 185.1 IP, 198 K, 1.192 WHIP, 15 W
Lopez appears to have an early season problem:
March through June 2023 and 2024: 196 IP, 4.55 ERA, 236 K, 1.147
July through September 2023 and 2023: 183.1 IP, 3.15 ERA, 196 K, 1.201 WHIP
Of course, it's not quite that simple. Lopez had a two-start stretch in June of last season where he struck out 23 over 14 one-run innings, and then he followed it up with six runs in five innings in his first start in July; in July of 2023, he had a 12-strikeout, complete-game shutout followed by seven runs in 5.2 innings in his very next start. So, it might be more accurate to say Lopez has an inconsistency problem, one that might be exacerbated by pitching in near-freezing temperatures in the AL Central early in the season.
Either way you want to slice it, Lopez has been both a revelation and a bit of a disappointment the past two seasons and, especially so in 2024. He wasn't bad, but his inflated ERA was a real headache, and it came along with a near four-point decline in his strikeout rate in 2024. It's too much to say that this is just who Lopez is after two consecutive seasons of underperforming his peripherals, but I do think it might make more sense to think of him more like an Aaron Nola-type these days – a reliable source of volume, and a rotation stabilizer which you can allow you to take some chances with injury risks in the back half of your rotation, but not necessarily an ace himself. I'll take the under on a 4.00 ERA in 2025, but with across-the-board declines in swinging strike rate after his 2023 breakout, he's better suited as a No. 2 pitcher than someone you should expect ace production from.
Chances of a bounceback: 50%
Luis Castillo, Mariners
2024 results: 3.64 ERA over 175.1 IP, 175 K, 1.17 WHIP, 11 W
The thing with Castillo – and it's true of everyone in the Mariners rotation to varying degrees – is that his value in 2025 could really depend on whether the Mariners decide to address their offensive issues by trading from their deep, talented rotation. Mariners pitchers really benefit from their home park, perhaps more than any other in baseball, and that was especially true for Castillo:
Castillo at home, 2024: : 3.15 ERA, 27.4% K rate, 4.6% BB rate, 3.22 FIP
Castillo on the road, 2024: 4.25 ERA, 20.7% K rate, 8.8% BB rate, 4.77 FIP
We typically think of the effects of a ballpark on offense in terms of dimensions, but while T-Mobile Park does have deep fences that have historically limited home runs, strikeout rates are hugely impacted in Seattle, likely due to a suboptimal batter's eye. Castillo still pitched like an ace at home, but he looked like a mid-rotation starter at best on the road in 2024, and I don't think I want to bet on a guy in his 30s turning that trend around.
Especially when the primary issue was the loss of effectiveness from his fastball, in 2023, the only pitchers to top Castillo's 33% whiff rate on his four-seam fastball were one-inning relievers like Felix Bautista and Bryan Abreu; his 27.3% whiff rate with the pitch in 2024 was still a very good mark, but it was below other starters like Joe Ryan, Yusei Kikuchi, and Luis Gil. Castillo lost 0.7 mph on average with the pitch and traded a bit of vertical movement for horizontal movement as his arm slot dipped a bit, and he lost some spin.
None of those changes are necessarily irreversible, but as Castillo has grown more reliant on his four-seamer for strikeouts, any loss of effectiveness is going to matter more. Maybe he can adjust in 2025, either by reclaiming some of the pitch's former characteristics or by prioritizing some of his other pitches – his changeup used to be the go-to pitch but is now his fourth-most used one – but is that really a bet you want to make with a guy who turns 32 next week? If he stays in Seattle, it might not be a bad bet to make at a depressed price point, but I'm skeptical that he'll be worth it.
Chances of a bounceback: 30%
Carlos Rodon, Yankees
2024 results: 3.96 ERA over 175 IP, 195 K, 1.22 WHIP, 16 W
Rodon ended up having a fine season, buoyed in large part by 16 wins, tied for the third-best mark in baseball. Otherwise, he was more average, for the most part, providing strong strikeout numbers but pretty middling ratios – and whole months where he was a lot more harmful than helpful.
But he did start to figure things out as the season went on, putting up a 2.91 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in the second half of the season, with his strikeout rate jumping from 24.4% to 32.1%. That looks a lot more like the ace-level production the Yankees were expecting to get from Rodon, and while the postseason walked some of those gains back, he still struck out 33% of opposing batters in his four playoff starts, too. His fastball still isn't the elite pitch it once was, and Rodon knew it, tinkering with his pitch mix throughout the season, and I think he landed on an approach that worked in the second half. He ditched his experiments with a cutter in his final June start and started seeing better results from his slider, while his changeup continued to emerge as a legitimate swing-and-miss weapon for him.
I don't think Rodon is going to go back to being the dominant Giants-era version of himself, but I do think he recognized that the cutter was a failed experiment, one that might have made his signature slider less effective. I tend to believe that full-season statistics serve as a better predictor of future performance than partial-season slices, but in Rodon's case, there were tangible changes underlying the improvement. Given the success he enjoyed in the second half, I'm hopeful that we see a better, more consistent version of Rodon in 2025 than the one we got in 2024.
Chances of a bounceback: 60%
Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays
2024 results: 3.83 ERA over 181 IP, 162 K, 1.221 WHIP, 14 W
The thing I keep having to remind myself is that Gausman had a shoulder injury during spring training that kept him off the mound for a few weeks and slightly delayed his season. Gausman still stayed healthy and made 31 starts, but it's clear he just wasn't the same guy, with his strikeout rate dropping from 31.1% – an elite mark – to just 21.4% – a below-average one. There was a bit of a dip in fastball velocity, but not as much as you might think, given the shoulder injury and drop in production – he went from 94.6 mph in 2023 to 93.9 in 2024. Which is to say, it doesn't seem like Gausman was just pitching through an injury all season long or anything.
But we certainly can't rule that out. Gausman continued a multi-year trend of lowering his arm slot, which could be one way of compensating for a shoulder that is less than 100% healthy. And, while he mostly managed to maintain his velocity as a result, it's just not the kind of trend you want to see from a pitcher who has to work mostly north-south to be effective. As BaseballProspectus's Mikey Ajeto pointed out back in May, Gausman was throwing his fastball up in the zone less often than he did in 2023, and his splitter was tumbling out of the bottom of the zone less often than it had in the past. And that's kind of the whole ballgame for Gausman, who needs to miss a ton of bats with his splitter to make up for how much hard contact his elevated fastballs give up.
When those two pitches aren't working in conjunction with one another, well, that's how you get a 10-point drop in strikeout rate. Maybe a healthy spring gives Gausman the chance to reverse that trend, clean up his mechanics, and get back to baffling hitters with that splitter of his. But is that a bet you really want to make with a guy who will be 34 on Opening Day?
Chances of a bounceback: 15%
Bobby Miller, Dodgers
2024 results: 8.52 ERA over 56 IP, 52 K, 1.77 WHIP, 2 W
"You were The Chosen One! It was said you would bring balance to the ratios, not destroy them!"
Miller was everyone's breakout pick this time a year ago, and for exactly one start in March, it looked like a brilliant call by all involved. Miller tore through the Cardinals lineup, striking out 11 over six shutout, two-hit innings. But he would make just two more starts before going on the IL with right shoulder inflammation, and he was basically never the same before being shipped back to Triple-A for good in September, completely missing the Dodgers World Series run. For a team as desperate for pitching as the Dodgers were, the fact that he wasn't even considered for a postseason roster spot seems like pretty bad news.
As far as we know, there was no setback with Miller's shoulder after his June return, but I think it's obvious he was never right, even if he wasn't hurt. And as long as he's healthy entering the 2025 season, I'm going to be pounding the table for Miller as a sleeper and, consequently, as a bounce-back candidate. Given his 403.3 ADP in early drafts so far, I may be on something of an island on this one.
But when he's right, Miller does everything you want from a pitcher. He's got a blazing high-90s fastball with good movement characteristics and a legitimate five-pitch mix capable of generating whiffs with everything he threw; add in a rack record of throwing strikes before 2024, and, well, there's a reason he was everyone's most obvious breakout pick last season. He has to be healthy to justify the optimism, but if he is, expect that price to rise dramatically when he takes the mound this spring.
Chances of a bounceback: 55%