The big weekend is here. While I've been drafting since November because I have nothing better do with my life, many have their drafts over the next couple days. That makes sense! Sure, there are advantages to drafting early but the risks outweigh them by far. For every Andrew Vaughn that you could have had 100 picks later a month ago, you've lost a valuable starting pitcher like Carlos Carrasco or Framber Valdez. Heck, look no further than Vaughn's own teammate Eloy Jimenez! Drafting closer to the start of the season is always smarter.
Anyway, we had that superstar Adam Aizer on the podcast today to talk about his favorite players to draft this season, ranging from Charlie Morton to, you guessed it, James Paxton. Scott White and I also went over our favorite bold predictions for the season. Bold predictions are great in that they need to be outlandish but you still want to give yourself an outside shot of getting it right. Wait until you hear Scott's prediction on Tyler Mahle or who I predict will lead baseball in saves. Have a great weekend of drafting!
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And Adam's favorite player to draft is...
Charlie Morton, SP, Atlanta Braves
Aizer can't get enough of the same pitcher who finished as SP7 overall in H2H points leagues and Roto formats in 2019 and after watching him pitch this spring, it's not hard to see why. Morton has gotten off to a scorching hot start this spring with 7.1 IP, no earned runs and seven strikeouts.
"I'm optimistic about Morton going to the NL and avoiding the DH," Aizer said. "He is going at about 110 overall in ADP and I like him where he's at. I took him ahead of Chris Paddack last week. If you can get him as your SP3 or SP4, you're gold."
There are reasons to buy in on Morton. Last season, Morton was dealing with a shoulder injury and the velocity was down during his first four starts. When he returned from the shoulder injury, his numbers and velocity bounced back. Finally, in the postseason, Morton look like his 2019 self:
- Morton's first four starts: 5.40 ERA, 4.78 xFIP, 1.50 WHIP, 92.5 MPH fastball velocity
- Morton's final five starts: 4.22 ERA, 3.42 xFIP, 1.31 WHIP, 93.9 MPH fastball velocity
- Morton's four postseason starts: 2.70 ERA, 10.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 95.1 MPH fastball velocity
More injuries!
- Eloy Jimenez is now confirmed to be out for 5-6 months with a torn pectoral muscle. We did an emergency podcast on the injury fallout and everything you need to know about what this means for Andrew Vaughn (who will be trying out left field on Friday) and everyone else this impacts on the White Sox roster and beyond. In short, Jimenez is not worth stashing away unless you play in leagues with unlimited or extra IL spots.
- Rays reliever Nick Anderson has a partially torn ligament in his elbow. Expect Diego Castillo, Pete Fairbanks, and maybe even with one of their youngsters like Shane McClanahan or Luis Patino to be in the mix for saves. You know how this goes -- it's the Rays! At one point of the season last year they had a stretch of five different relievers get saves. According to Scott, it won't be surprising if none of them get double-digit saves.
- Juan Soto left Thursday's game with calf tightness but it was reported as minor and that he should be alright. There's nothing to worry about here -- at least not yet! Carry on. If you can get any discount on Soto, take it.
- Starlin Castro was diagnosed with a very mild strain of his left hamstring Thursday and is considered day-to-day.
- Not injury-related but noteworthy: Freddy Peralta will open the season in the Brewers' rotation. Josh Lindblom will begin the season in the bullpen. Peralta has dominated this spring: 8.1 IP, 1 ER, 15 K, 3 BB. Scott is moving Peralta up his big board and has become very excited about him as a sleeper just in the last week. "He's been mixing in changeup and a second breaking ball more. I don't know how traditional his starter usage will be, but if he goes at least five innings, the impact of his starts will be high. You'll be happy you invested in him late. The ratios help and strikeout total will be enough to use him even if he is limited innings wise."
More of Adam's favorite targets
Vlad Guerrero, 1B, Blue Jays
Adam: "You take gambles on players with Vlad's upside and that's how you win. Chris recently got him at No. 61 overall. If he's starting to drop that far, he's worth the risk."
Scott recently took Vlad out of his busts column -- so even he is warming up to him.
The Vlad situation is similar to the Fernando Tatis one from last year, except that you had to use a second-round pick on Tatis last year before the breakout. However, it's probably not fair to make a one-to-one comparison here.
Jameson Taillon, SP, Yankees
Adam: "I know that innings are going to be an issue, but they're going to be an issue for everyone after the COVID-shortened season. His ADP is 183rd right now. He's looked really good this spring. He's a great control pitcher and we've seen pitchers leave the Pirates, find a different way to pitch and generate more strikeouts. He's in a good position to get wins. I like him ideally as a SP6, but even as a SP5."
One thing to keep in mind with Taillon is that his velocity has been down 2-3 MPH this spring as it was in his prime. Scott believes it's because he's changing his whole approach as a pitcher and it might not be best to compare his velocity now to then. Scott has Taillon in his sleepers column but wants to caution people not to make him your SP4.
James Paxton, SP, Mariners
Adam: "His ADP is 223, the velocity is back up, and the Seattle beats are saying he looks like the Paxton of old. He's a guy with an elite swinging strike rate. He had the biggest velocity dip in baseball last year and that's back. Now he goes into a good ballpark for pitchers."
Paxton maxed out at 97 MPH on his fastball this spring last week and racked up 8 Ks in 4 1/3 IP. The high reward is there with Paxton but not really any risk given where he is coming off the board.
Alex Verdugo, OF, Red Sox
Adam: "His ADP in the last week -- 130th -- OF32. This is about where he ranked in points per game in 2020. He's a great batting average source. His 162-game pace last year was for 111 runs and the lineup could be so much better this year if J.D. Martinez bounces back along with Rafael Devers. I don't see why he'd have to leave the lineup. I see an opportunity for 100+ runs, 75 RBI and a really good average if he's batting No. 2 in the order."
Bold predictions
Scott White:
- Will Myers will combine for 50 home runs and stolen bases.
- Matt Olson has more home runs than Pete Alonso and everyone else. Olson is your 2021 home run leader.
- Tyler Mahle is the SP1 for the Reds this year, outproducing Luis Castillo this year.
- Josh Bell produces better numbers than his breakout 2019 season.
- Anthony Bass doesn't even get to two saves for the Marlins.
- Nick Castellanos returns second-round Fantasy value in a breakout season with the Reds.
- Ke'Bryan Hayes wins NL Rookie of the Year and finishes in the top-5 for NL MVP.
- Byron Buxton finishes with fewer home runs and stolen bases combined than Michael A. Taylor.
- Luis Severino returns to the mound before Zac Gallen.
- Dom Nunez has more home runs than Will Smith.
- Ty France finishes as a top-10 second basemen.
- Joey Votto finishes as a top-12 first basemen.
Frank Stampfl:
- Lance Lynn stays healthy and still finishes outside the top 40 SPs.
- Josh Hader loses his closer job to Devin Williams and not because of injury.
- Raisel Iglesias leads baseball in saves with 45-50 saves.
- Tim Anderson hits 25+ home runs with 25+ stolen bases and wins the AL MVP.
So which Fantasy baseball sleepers should you snatch in your draft? And which undervalued first baseman can help you win a championship? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy baseball rankings for every single position, all from the model that called Will Smith's huge breakout last season, and find out.