Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: ADP review, best buys at closer

With the season about to start and bullpen roles starting to come into shape around the league, it's a good time to break down the position again. Paul Mammino is going through ADP data to break down each draft tier and find the best values. His ADRIEP model helps you break down the most trustworthy closers, to find what raw save totals can't tell you.

The chart below shows ADP tiers based on NFBC data for all drafts dating back to 2/1/2019. The highlighted cells indicate where each new tier begins:

Tier 1

Diaz and Treinen have established themselves as a tier of their own consistently going as the top two closers off the board. As I discussed in my introduction piece both guys offer significant levels of upside with lower downside. Personally, I do not want to be chasing either arm coming off career years but if I had to choose, I would take Treinen who offers slightly more upside and a comparatively more stable profile.

Best Buy: Blake Treinen

Tier 2

Chapman and Jansen are both coming off down seasons, with Chapman missing time due to injury and Jansen with a heart scare. Both saw their walk rates regress and their swinging strikes rates fell back as well. At their current prices I will not be investing in either and will be looking lower in this tier. ... In a baseball sense Osuna is the most attractive asset. He pairs elite control with above average K rates and has been one of the better relievers in baseball over the past few seasons. Now in Houston he should get ample save chances. He does have to hold off Ryan Pressley for the job but I have faith in his ability to do so. ... Hand is similar to Osuna in that he has been underappreciated during his time in San Diego and should have an un-impeded look at the closer role. He has slightly below average control with above average swing and miss stuff and has the ability to thrive in Cleveland. Behind Osuna he is my second favorite option in this tier. ... Kimbrel does not have a team and regressed skill wise in 2018. The lost spring time will lead to a slow start whenever he does get a job and as a result, I am avoiding him at his current price. ... The model believes that Vazquez ran into bad luck in 2018 and deserved better results, his skills are still elite and actually improved slightly from 2017 to 2018. The issue with him is he is on the worst team in this tier and there is always the chance he gets traded.

Best Buy: Roberto Osuna

Tier 3

As we enter this tier, we start to see the warts growing larger for each option. Doolittle has elite skills and would easily be in the tier above if there was any faith in his ability to stay healthy. The upside is there and for those who miss out on tiers above should be investing in Doolittle and chasing his insane upside. ... Leclerc and Yates are favorites of the model who have shown elite skill sets over the past two seasons. Leclerc should have the job all season but the question remains how many opportunities he will get with the Rangers. Yates could be traded if the Padres' rebuild does not become actualized until 2020. He could continue to be elite if he is sent somewhere like the Red Sox with an open job. ... Davis should still rack of the saves but his skills have regressed from his days as a Royal with drops in K rates and a small increase in walks. Coors Field has not helped him as his ability to avoid extra base hits has severely regressed with the park change. Chasing a high saves number with Davis make sense but he is no longer a source of elite ratios. ... Hader will rack up Ks and has elite ratios but likely will be deployed in a fireman type role and may not eclipse 10 saves making him a bit too pricey here for my liking. ... Iglesias will get a chance to close for a much-improved Reds team but is coming off a down season due to an insane increase in his HR rates. While he calls an extreme hitters park home there is little reason to believe his 1.5 HR/9 will remain in 2019. If he can return to the 0.8 range, he had in 2017 his other skills are still relatively in tact and he could be a great buy at his price.

Best Buy: Sean Doolittle

Tier 4

This tier features two types of arms-talented with a questionable role (Knebel, Robertson, Alvarado) and closers for below average teams (Allen, Giles). Alvarado features an incredible profile with lots of Ks and an above average walk rate. The Rays are hinting at a full-blown time share making this price tag for Alvarado extremely risky. If he was guaranteed the job, he would be my preferred buy in this tier but the risk is far too great. ... Robertson is as steady as they come and since he was given the big pay day, I fully anticipate him to get the first save chances. Seranthony Dominguez and Hector Neris are both extremely talented and could take the job in Robertson struggles. Both may actually be more purely talented than Robertson. ... Knebel followed his magical 2017 with a brutal injury-plagued 2018. He was one of the bigger misses for most Fantasy owners. His control significantly improved late in the year and the Ks remained. If he holds off Jeffress and Hader, he could return significant value at this price tag. ... All of Allen's skills regressed last season and have been regressing over the past few seasons. The Angels have a few potentially interesting arms behind him but this is his job to lose. I do not believe he has the ability to return to his former dominance and will not find myself investing in him at all in 2019. ... Ken Giles was another huge miss for Fantasy owners but his skills did not change much from year to year. He was victim of some poorly timed home runs and some massively public meltdowns which lead to his demotion and eventual trade. He still features an extremely high swinging strike rate and miniscule walk rate. With some better sequencing in 2019 he could provide massive value to owners who invest.

Best Buy: Ken Giles

Beyond these top tiers we begin to enter the tier of hold you nose and pick. Most of these guys are closers on bad teams, guys with extremely questionable roles, or set-up men with elite ratios. Check back later this week when I will take a deeper look at these final few groupings and try to find those who lead owners to victory in 2019.