So much of our Fantasy Baseball content is geared toward redraft leagues because, well, that's what most people play. But different considerations go into dynasty leagues, where the long-term ramifications require a more deliberate approach. Next year is as big of a priority as this year, and so you should take extra care not to overreact to what you're seeing right now.
My hope is that I've done that here, identifying some of the players (and prospects) who've seen their Dynasty stock rise (or fall) in the first month. It doesn't mean their stock can't change again, but it does mean that even with the long-term focus, potential trade partners are likely to assess them differently than they would have just a month ago.
One common theme is that an underwhelming debut, for all but the most elite prospects, can really put a dent in a player's Dynasty value. There's no putting the genie back in the bottle, and likewise, once a prospect stumbles out of the gate, the illusion of perfection is gone.
But before we fixate on the negative, let's look at some of those who've seen their stock rise in the first month.
Speaking strictly in terms of offense, Mateo was one of the worst everyday players in baseball last year. If you kept him in your Roto lineup for the 35 stolen bases, you may have looked back and wondered if it was worth it. It stood to reason, then, that the Orioles would look to upgrade, particularly with top prospect Gunnar Henderson now in the fold. But instead, Mateo himself has upgraded, not only cutting his strikeout rate in half but also swinging with the sort of conviction that's already yielded the hardest-hit ball of his career. And just like that, he's a five-category threat at a position where you almost have to have one. While it's possible it's all a mirage, the scale of the improvement makes it harder to dismiss.
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In what looked to be a banner rookie class this spring, Outman was merely an afterthought, his flaws so apparent that it's possible he went unclaimed in some shallower Dynasty leagues. So, um ... what were those flaws again? Look, he didn't fit the usual profile as a 25-year-old with a bloated strikeout rate playing for an organization that didn't seem interested in giving him an honest chance, but this is one instance where the minor-league numbers (Outman slashed .294/.393/.586 with 31 homers between Double- and Triple-A last year) tell the story. Yes, the strikeout rate is concerning, but the tools are so loud, the contributions so diverse, that it mitigates much of the risk. And it's clear the Dodgers are buying in now, keeping Outman in the lineup even against lefties.
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Kelenic serves as a reminder why the biggest talents are deserving of the most patience. You could have sold him for nickels on the dollar after he began his career batting .168 in about a season's worth of at-bats. It would have been a major concession after he looked like one of the top Dynasty assets just two years earlier, but nobody would have blamed you for it. Those who held on, though, are being richly rewarded now. While Kelenic's stock isn't totally back where it was, he's made himself into a genuine asset again, doing damage against lefties as well as righties and sliders as well as fastballs. His Statcast page is as red as you'd want it to be.
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Chapman just turned 30 and was already of some stature coming into the year, so to call him one of the biggest risers in Dynasty, I must be suggesting that his ceiling is awfully high. And indeed, I am. Chapman's quality of contact has always rated among the best in baseball, something like 98th percentile, but he sold out so hard for home runs that it actually undercut it. So far this year, he's been more opposite field-minded, with four of his five home runs going more to right field than any of the 27 he hit last year. And since he clearly has the power to hit it out that way, it's going to do wonders for his batting average. The way he's going now, it wouldn't surprise me if Chapman ended up with Austin Riley-like numbers.
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I'm really going out on a limb with this one seeing as it's only been in the last two weeks that Jack Suwinski has positioned himself as a Fantasy asset, but his stock was so low to begin with that if you feel any sort of compulsion to make an offer for him now, then yeah, he's a big-time riser. Maybe he fizzles just as quickly as he emerged, but part of the calculation here is that he's only 24. We don't really know what he could be yet, and yet judging from the exit velocities and sprint speed, he clearly has the tools to back up his production. As with James Outman, his strikeouts and left-handedness could be his undoing, but his plate discipline has been so good that I'm willing to bet on him at this point.
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Prospects who've gained the most value
Andrew Abbott, SP, Reds
AA/AAA: 1-0, 1.74 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 20 2/3 IP, 6 BB, 43 K
Between Double-A and now one start at Triple-A, Abbott has struck out 55.8 percent of the batters he's faced, which is the sort of statistic that basically makes the entire case. But just for good measure, he has a 20 percent swinging-strike rate, which is similar to the mark that first put Spencer Strider on my radar two years ago. Abbott doesn't have Strider's velocity, but he has the optimal vertical approach angle for today's game, creating a rising effect with his fastball that causes hitters to swing under it. He may not be the next Strider, but maybe the next Joe Ryan?
Junior Caminero, 3B, Rays
A+: .392 BA (74 AB), 7 HR, 1.181 OPS, 4 BB, 18 K
Caminero was a prospect of some stature coming into the year, with most every publication ranking him in the top 10 in the Rays organization, but with the way he's taken to High-A at age 19, he probably deserves to be top 100 overall. That High-A assignment was an aggressive one, but he's been arguably the best hitter at that level, hitting the ball to all fields and already delivering the middle-of-the-order power he was projected to have.
Jonatan Clase, OF, Mariners
A+: .337 BA (83 AB), 7 HR, 16 SB, 1.178 OPS, 17 BB, 27 K
After making a splash with 55 steals at Low-A last year, the diminutive Clase (5-feet-9) has opened up a whole bag of new tricks at High-A, continuing to run freely while also reaching base at a high rate and showing off surprising power. His hit tool remains a question mark with his strikeout rate being what it is at a level where he's seeing mostly fastballs, but his multi-pronged breakthrough points to a high ceiling indeed.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 3B, Reds
AAA: .448 BA (29 AB), 4 HR, 1.431 OPS, 1 BB, 5 K
Encarnacion-Strand is already known to those who play in redraft leagues, so you're not sneaking him by anyone in Dynasty. But he's gone from being a fringy asset to a considerable one in a very short period of time. It began with that two-week stretch in spring training in which he looked like the best player in the world, batting .577 (15 for 26) with four rather awe-inspiring home runs.
A back issue delayed his start to the minor-league season, but now he's come back doing similar things at Triple-A Louisville -- and right when the Reds are without one of their top first base options, Wil Myers. Encarnacion-Strand was one of the most prolific home run hitters in all the minors last year, but now that he's pushing for a big-league job, his stock is at an all-time high.
Pat Monteverde, SP, Marlins
AA: 3-0, 0.35 ERA, 0.54 WHIP, 26 IP, 4 BB, 38 K
Known as "Patrick" in most player databases, Monteverde has quickly made a name for himself with a four-start stretch that's about as good as you'll ever see, not just in terms of preventing runs but also missing bats, his 13.2 K/9 rate backed up by a 16 percent swinging-strike rate. All four of his starts have gone at least six innings, and he allowed just one hit in the first two. What's interesting is he throws right around 90 mph, which makes for an unconventional prospect. The 25-year-old may be just the latest in a long line of tricky left-handers who thrive on pure deception.
This choice is almost too easy, but the point I really want to drive home here is that McCathy's demotion isn't in the same category as, say, Jordan Walker's. He was a surprise contributor coming up from the minors last year and doesn't boast any real prospect pedigree. Even before he bottomed out, there were questions as to whether anything he did last year was real, apart from the stolen bases. Granted, if he managed to repeat last year's numbers, he'd be a surefire Dynasty asset, but by sending him down for more work, the Diamondbacks revealed their own lack of faith. It's not the final say on his long-term outlook, but his Dynasty standing was precarious to begin with.
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Singer is a pitcher of some pedigree, being the Royals' first-round pick in 2018, and he seemed to be trending in the right direction with a 3.23 ERA last year, including 2.46 over his final 14 starts. Fair to say the wind is out of the sails now that he has an 8.49 ERA through six starts. It's not just that the performance is bad, which is forgivable over a one-month sample. It's that his pitches are being straight-up shellacked, putting him in the 1st percentile for both average and max exit velocity. And as with Jake McCarthy, part of the calculus here is that Singer's upside wasn't thought to be particularly high in the first place, given his modest strikeout rate, which makes it easier to cut bait.
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It's not true that every prospect's Dynasty value is at its highest just before his debut, but cases like Colas' certainly lend credence to that idea. We all imagined his first stint going a certain way, and it didn't include a 5-for-40 slump that cost him more and more playing time until it's a stretch even to say he's part of a platoon. Colas has delivered premium exit velocities at times, so we know the power, purportedly his calling card, is there, but it's translated to only three extra-base hits so far. It's still totally feasible he develops into a middle-of-the-order threat, but now that we see it's going to take more work to get him there, likely even a return trip to the minors given the playing-time situation, the veneer is gone.
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The danger in including Greene here is that he's been accompanied by a feeling of inevitability ever since he arrived last June. But after nearly a full calendar year of a sub-.700 OPS, it's fair to say his Dynasty value is diminished. I'd still rather buy low than sell low just because a 22-year-old with the pedigree of a top-10 prospect deserves a longer leash than this. If the Tigers had waited another year to promote him, his stock would be through the roof right now. Still, we can't unsee what we've seen, and between the excessive ground-ball rate, the middling exit velocities and the escalating strikeouts, there isn't a lot to suggest he's trending toward something big.
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Dynasty leaguers may be stuck with Tovar for the time being. In such formats, shortstop is a position you basically have to fill via the farm system (because rarely do players move there after the fact), and this particular shortstop was a consensus top-25 prospect who now gets to call Coors Field home. But as with Oscar Colas, reality isn't living up to expectations for Tovar, and now that the genie is out of the bottle and everyone can see it's not so magical, there doesn't figure to be as many buyers. The strikeouts are too high, and the exit velocities too low. These may just be the typical growing pains for a 21-year-old promoted too soon, but nonetheless, they've introduced a lot more uncertainty.
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