When you talk about the shortstop position, the late 90's just might go down as the golden era. Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez became everyday players in 1996; Nomar Garciaparra made his debut late that season, and was one of the best players in baseball in '97; Miguel Tejada followed shortly after. That group of shortstops in many ways revolutionized the position, making 6-foot-3 shortstops with power less of a rare occurrence.
The last year has seen a similar group of shortstops take the league by storm, and it's not crazy to think they might be just as good, if not better than their 90's forebearers. This group might not go on to cement their places in the Hall of Fame like Jeter and Rodriguez have, but they're off to the kind of starts that certainly suggest the possibility of it.
I am talking, of course, about Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor and Carlos Correa. These five currently rank in the top 10 in shortstop WAR at FanGraphs.com for the season, and it shouldn't come as much of a surprise that they dominate the leaderboard for Fantasy as well. All five come in the top-11 in Rotisserie scoring for the season as well, and all five would probably go in the first few rounds if we re-drafted as of the start of June.
Al Melchior took a look at the state of the shortstop position last week, with an eye on three of our five choices here. Corey Seager must have taken his omission from Al's list personally because he has homered six times in his past six games, a potent reminder of just how skilled he is.
Al took stock of the shortstop position as it currently stands, but these guys are all so young and promising, it seems shortsighted to leave it there. These are pretty clearly the five best young shortstops in baseball, and it is worth taking a longer view with them. How will they look not only at the end of this season, but going into next year?
Let's take a look into the crystal ball and see how this talented quintet might shake out in the future.
1. Manny Machado, Orioles
The grizzled veteran of the group, Machado made his debut all the way back in 2012 but still doesn't turn 24 for another month. He is on pace for 100 career homers before the end of his age-23 season, and was a sure-fire first-round pick even before gaining shortstop eligibility this season. With next season's eligibility already assured, Machado could be a contender for the No. 1 spot without any improvements.
Of course, we're already seeing the improvements. Machado broke the 30-homer barrier for the first time last season, and just isn't slowing down at all this season, clubbing 14 in his first 55 games, putting him 0n pace for 40 homers right now. He isn't running as much as last season, but Machado really is the total package otherwise; he hits for big power, rarely strikes out, has a good command of the strike zone and plays in a great lineup and park. This is one of baseball's premier hitters at any position, and would be a first-round pick as a first baseman. As a shortstop, he's arguably the most valuable asset in Fantasy.
2. Carlos Correa, Astros
Correa has been something of a disappointment this season, which mostly just speaks to our ridiculously high expectations for him coming into the season. As a 20-year-old, Correa set those expectations sky high by hitting .279/.345/.512 last year, with 22 homers and 14 steals in 99 games. He looked like a true five-category stud, and was already getting first-round consideration coming into the season. He has not lived up to the hype, with his power taking a not-unexpected step back and the rest of his game following suit.
Still, we're 156 games into Correa's career, and he now has 30 homers, 22 steals, 79 runs and 100 RBI while batting .275. If he did that over a full season, you're looking at an elite Fantasy option, even if not the potential No. 1 pick we thought he might become. Of course, it's worth remembering that Correa won't turn 22 until late-September and still has plenty of development left. This season has been a disappointment, but Correa also sports a 37.6 percent hard-hit rate, and continues to show raw power to all fields.
Correa is a little behind the field among this group right now, but he's also still a baby by MLB standards. He is probably the only active player besides Machado with a realistic chance to get to 100 homers before his age-24 season, so don't let a few disappointing months discourage you. He has Machado-like potential -- although it's worth noting he may have to move to third base before long, and unlike Machado, that move will stick.
3. Corey Seager, Dodgers
A week ago, the No. 3 spot might have looked different. Seager got off to a rough start to the season, and his overall numbers hadn't recovered until this recent homer binge. However, we're now looking at a 22-year-old who has played 84 games at the major-league level, and the production is pretty staggering: .302/.367/.542 line, with 18 homers and 20 doubles. He doesn't have the stolen base production the rest of the list does, but Seager might just be the best hitter on this list before all is said and done. Here's what he has done in the majors, put to a 150-game pace:
647 PA, 580 AB, 98 runs, 175 hits, 36 2B, 4 3B, 32 HR, 93 RBI, 5 SB, 59 BB, 107 K
Seager looks like a true middle-of-the-order batnd in a batting order that is loaded. The Dodgers offense hasn't been great this season, but this team is stocked with talent and has more money to spend than most municipalities, so he'll never be short of help. Seager averages 403 feet on his homers, has shown power to all fields and has the third-highest hard-hit average in baseball since the start of last season. Seager isn't a five-category stud like the rest of this list. He simply looks like one of the best all-around hitters in baseball at 22.
4. Francisco Lindor, Indians
Lindor wasn't supposed to be this much of a hitter. He was always a big time prospect, but more so because his elite glove gave him an extremely high floor. His minor-league production certainly didn't scream "Future Fantasy Star;" he hit .279/.354/.384 in 416 min0r-league games overall, with only one season with double-digit homers. However, 153 games into his career, Lindor is a career .313/.358/.473 hitter with the following counting stats: 18 HR, 88 runs, 80 RBI, 22 steals.
At some point, you just have to forget what you expected based on the minors, and just accept that what Lindor is doing is real. Now, maybe his groundball heavy approach might make him more of a 12-15 homer guy, but Lindor is also walking more, running more and striking out less in his second turn through the majors to make up for the dropoff in his power from last season. There's a clear dropoff from the first three to the last two in this quintet, but that's hardly a knock on Lindor or No. 5 -- they are still tremendous players.
5. Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox
Bogaerts is currently the leader at the position, ranking 16th overall in Rotisseries leagues, which is a nice bonus for those of you who bought into the breakout. Bogaerts has been tremendous this season, hitting .345 and scoring a ton of runs at the top of the best lineup in baseball. And, though he is the second-oldest player in the group, he won't turn 24 until after the end of the regular season, so there is still room to project growth.
However, at least some of what we're seeing with Bogaerts this season is a mirage. If it wasn't, he would have a very good argument for the No. 1 spot, but Bogaerts just isn't quite on the level of the crew ahead of him. He isn't a huge base stealer and probably doesn't have much more than, say, 15-homer power at this point. So much of his value, then, is going to come from his ability to hit for average and rack up huge counting stats in the Red Sox offense. That's not a bad thing to bet on with someone who is hitting .327 since the start of last season, but it's no sure thing.
Bogaerts is a groundball-heavy hitter who should benefit from the BABIP boost Fenway park provides, but his breakout is still fueled by an unsustainable .400 mark this season. He was at .372 last season, which lends credence to the idea that he might be able to sustain this, but it's probably more realistic to expect something like .350, which would still be elite. Is Bogaerts still an elite Fantasy shortstop if he is only hitting, say, .290? In this offense, sure. But with so much of his value tied to his team, Bogaerts just falls a tiny bit short here.
