Fantasy Baseball Rankings Movers: Struggling studs could still come around, but time is running short

In this space, Scott White will highlight some of the more notable changes to his rest-of-season rankings. You'll find said rankings here and are urged to bookmark them if you haven't already. There's no better resource for gauging player value throughout the long season.

I believe in regression to the mean. I believe that track record counts for something and that talent eventually wins out. I believe that the highest level of baseball is more difficult than most of us can imagine and that much of its perceived randomness is owed to unreported, imperceptible glitches in a player's mechanical or cognitive process -- the sort that can be reversed at the drop of a hat.

As such, I tend to give the players who were widely regarded as studs an incredibly long leash. I believe it's my responsibility to do so even when no one else will. It usually pays off -- I believe the things I believe for a reason, after all -- and the consequences for pulling the plug too early are as dire as for pulling it too late.

But we're nearly two-thirds of the way through the season now. Whatever consequences are to come aren't as significant as the ones already incurred.

That's not to say you should abandon those still-struggling studs, many of which are on the hitter side. I also believe that changes to a player's mechanical or cognitive process don't answer to a timeline, and again, they can happen at the drop of a hat. But the rest of us do answer to a timeline, and there comes a point in that timeline when believing what I believe is more accurately described as hoping against hope.

And I believe we've reached that point with Matt Olson.

First base

• I wouldn't put it past Olson to hit 25 homers the rest of the way. We've seen him slump for extended stretches in the past, and the exit velocity readings would suggest that the power is still there. But much of my continued optimism depended on things clicking in the second half, and instead, he has one hit in his last 33 at-bats. We're running short on time for him to turn things around in a convincing way, and I suspect that "welcome to the party, pal" is all I would hear in response to moving him behind Pete Alonso, Josh Naylor, Vladimir Guerrero and Christian Walker. Note that such a move isn't a complete abandonment of his potential -- I still have him ahead of Spencer Steer and Alec Bohm, for instance -- but it's an acknowledgment that trustworthiness is increasingly valuable at this stage of the season. Olson has plainly forfeited his.
• More likely, you're using Michael Toglia in the outfield (if you're using him at all), but so as to have a second bullet point under the first base heading, I'll note that I rank him 29th at this position, behind Carlos Santana and Michael Busch but ahead of Jake Burger and Ryan O'Hearn. He's a classic case of "quality contact, just not enough of it" but is showing signs of rounding into form at age 25. His Statcast data suggests he deserves better than he's gotten, too.
  

Second base

• Ozzie Albies' fractured wrist takes him from fifth all the way to 30th. It's less the injury itself than the eight-week timetable with only 10 weeks remaining in the season. Are you confident you'd slot him in right away, presuming it's precisely eight weeks and not, say, 8 1/2? Unless it's in a totally free IL spot, I wouldn't bother to stash him.
• Bryson Stott and Andres Gimenez have disappointed for long enough that I've finally seen fit to move them behind Maikel Garcia, Ryan McMahon and the recently re-activated Luis Rengifo, as well as Jonathan India and Xander Bogaerts in points leagues. Stott and Gimenez remain worthwhile base-stealers and may right themselves as hitters before the season is done, but second base has enough mid-tier options that you shouldn't have to suffer through prolonged slumps, at least not in shallower leagues.
  

Third base

• Royce Lewis' latest IL stint, this time for a strained groin, will reach its conclusion Friday, so back up to No. 6 he goes. For as often as injuries have brought him down, they seem like the only thing that can bring him down.
• Colt Keith was highly regarded coming into the year but has only recently begun to deliver on the hype, batting .328 (20 for 61) with six home runs so far in July. Even so, I can't bring myself to move him higher than 28th at third base, which is partly a testament to the number of upside plays at the position. You could certainly make the case to roster him over any of the 10 names ahead of him, so maybe focus more on the fact he's moving up than exactly how far he's moved up.
  

Shortstop

• As with Matt Olson, I've been hesitant to move Bo Bichette down all year, trusting in his track record to come through eventually, but a moderate calf strain this time of year is a deal-breaker. He's probably not out for the season, but there's far less margin for error now when it already felt like he had to pull an inside straight. He falls from 10th to 19th for me.
• Just behind Bichette's new place in the rankings is a curious mishmash of players who clearly have some utility in Fantasy but don't inspire a ton of confidence either. That's about where Zachary Neto belongs seeing as he's on a 20-homer, 25-steal pace but with a fairly hollow stat line otherwise. If it sounds like I'm knocking him, I'm actually pointing out that I've had him buried for too long. He belongs ahead of Josh Smith, Willi Castro and Ezequiel Tovar, and now my rankings reflect it.
  

Catcher

• It's fair to say Ben Rice has come back down to earth since his three-homer game July 6. It would be one thing if the hits just weren't falling, but his strikeout rate has blown up as well, which is reason enough to drop my one-time No. 11 catcher to 15th. The initial move up may have been too bold in retrospect, but I'm willing to take bigger swings at catcher since they're generally easy to swap out on the waiver wire.
• Like Matt Olson, it's getting harder to keep the faith in Sean Murphy, who isn't as proven anyway and has the additional misfortune of losing at-bats to Travis d'Arnaud. I've moved him down to 19th.
  

Outfield

• Julio Rodriguez's high ankle sprain is an unusual injury for baseball but can lead to lengthy absences in other sports. As with Matt Olson, so much of my optimism depended on him finding his footing quickly in the second half, and already he's been wrong-footed in a significant way. Moving him behind Jarren Duran and Christian Yelich seems like an appropriate response, though it's worth noting that Yelich might also be headed to the IL with a back issue.
• After a miserable first couple of months, Randy Arozarena has seemingly righted the ship with a .291 (32 for 110) batting average, seven homers and eight steals in his past 31 games. It has him verging on top-15 status again, at least in my Rotisserie rankings, but I still have him behind Anthony Santander, Jurickson Profar and Bryan Reynolds in Head-to-Head points leagues.
• George Springer's turnaround has been just as notable, seeing him bat .358 (29 for 81) with eight homers in his past 22 games. His age makes him a more concerning case overall, but I've moved him back up from 35th to 27th, notably ahead of up-and-comers Heliot Ramos, James Wood and Jackson Merrill.
• Speaking of Merrill, I may have gotten out over my skis when I moved him up to 24th during his June power surge. There weren't enough changes in the underlying numbers to support it, and now he's homer-less in July. I've dropped him down to 34th, behind less-heralded-but-more-productive types like Lane Thomas and Brenton Doyle
• Among those less-heralded-but-more-productive types, I'd like to give special distinction to Alec Burleson, whose June breakthrough has shown no signs of abating in July. I now rank him 26th, and I'm not totally comfortable having him behind Tyler O'Neill and Brent Rooker (for as hot as those two have been).
• I've become more hopeful about Jackson Chourio, seeing not just his production but also his strikeout rate and exit velocities improve since the start of June. He's gone from being outside my top 50 to inside my top 40.
• The biggest riser of all is Lawrence Butler, who's gone from being unranked to inside my top 50. His exit velocity readings are nothing short of elite, and while a high strikeout rate has prevented him from making good on them in the past, he looks like he might be settling in here in July, batting .417 (25 for 60) with eight home runs.
• A cautionary tale for Butler would be Rece Hinds, who has sat out back-to-back games for the Reds after having his own power surge to end the first half. Even so, I've moved him up to 66th.
  

Starting pitcher

• Aaron Nola isn't capable of the same high-end outcomes as Paul Skenes or Dylan Cease, and I wouldn't say he's any less volatile either. I've dropped him behind those two, with Skenes now residing at No. 9.
• I'm optimistic enough about Gerrit Cole's last two turns (even if he's relying more on a cutter than a slider) to move him up to 13th in my rankings. That's one spot ahead of Garrett Crochet, who you may have noticed lasted only four innings in his latest start Tuesday. So should Crochet drop behind other pitchers as well? Well, the workload issue has hung over him like the sword of Damocles, but according to the White Sox's official website, he indicated that this abbreviated start was a "special circumstance" coming out of the All-Star break and that he'd take on a more normal workload going forward. A trade could reset everything, of course, but for now, I maintain that the impact potential is too high to downgrade Crochet too much.
  
• Though the Braves have been careful to point out there are no structural concerns for Max Fried's forearm, the neuritis that recently landed him on the IL could still be devastating for his remaining 2024 prospects given the lengthy buildup required for pitchers who miss extended time. Of course, it's also possible he sits out a couple turns and comes right back. In the interest of hedging my bet, I've dropped him from 12th to 26th, which places him just behind the pitchers who I think have genuine ace upside the rest of the way.
• The last of those pitchers with genuine ace upside is Hunter Greene, who climbs into the top 25 for the first time with his three brilliant starts to begin July.
• Another big riser is Michael King, who seemed like a total bust the first month of the season, getting crushed by both walks and home runs. His 2.21 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 10.7 K/9 over his past 10 starts, though, have compelled me to move him up to 34th, ahead of other two-faced standouts like Luis Gil, Bailey Ober and Cristopher Sanchez. I'm basically regarding King as must-start for now.
• The three high-profile pitchers expected back from season-long injuries this week have all made significant moves up the rankings, as you might expect, with Clayton Kershaw settling at 44, Kodai Senga at 45 and Robbie Ray at 52. I have much to say about all three elsewhere.
• I've been pretty outspoken in my belief that unlikely All-Star Tyler Anderson will regress and regress hard, so slotting him as high as 71st is a big concession for me. His best two swinging-strike starts of the season have come in his past three turns, though, which perhaps signifies ... something.
• One of the big fallers in this latest rankings update is MacKenzie Gore, who has gone from 59th to 77th, basically moving out of the must-roster range for standard 12-team leagues. He's been more sizzle than steak this whole time and seems to have slipped back into some bad habits delivery-wise with 12 walks in his past 10 innings.
• Coming off his 12-strikeout gem at the Rockies over the weekend, Hayden Birdsong only slots in at 94th, but that's because the opening for him in the Giants rotation is closing this week with Ray and Alex Cobb returning from injury. Birdsong is scheduled to start one game of a doubleheader this weekend, but after that, all bets are off.
  

Relief pitcher

• I've moved Jeff Hoffman up to 27th, ahead of likely trade deadline casualties Carlos Estevez, Tanner Scott and Hector Neris and well ahead of his left-handed counterpart Jose Alvarado. Alvarado blew his latest save chance and has been anything but a lockdown option while Hoffman has arguably been the best reliever in the National League. I have to believe Phillies manager Rob Thomson is close to anointing Hoffman as his full-time closer, but then again, Hoffman did just work the eighth inning of a tie game Tuesday.
• Daniel Hudson has also jumped ahead of the trade deadline trio (and just behind Hoffman) with him seemingly overtaking Evan Phillips as the preferred saves source for the Dodgers. Then again, Phillips did just record a one-out save Tuesday, ending Hudson's streak of four straight, but the circumstances of that save were unusual enough that I'm not yet inclined to back Phillips again.