Maybe we’re watching Matt Harvey just a little too closely.
He is, after all, making a hurried return from thoracic outlet surgery, a procedure that involves removing a top rib to relieve tension on nerves and blood vessels. Grisly stuff.
It has an encouraging track record, as I discovered when I dug into it about a month ago, but we have yet to see an example as high-profile as Harvey, in the prime of his career, with a rabid media obsessing over his every move.
Normally, the rehabilitation happens quietly, perhaps even on the back fields. Harvey is front and center, exposing himself to the instant (i.e., hasty) analysis that afflicts us today.
That’s how the storyline changes from “this is who he is now, and we all have to get used to it” to “maybe he can get better” in just one start.
Harvey was better in his latest start Monday at the Tigers. His fastball sat at 93-94, up from his first three starts, and peaked at 95-96, also up a mile per hour or two. The results were better, too, until he extended himself into the fifth inning for the first time.
“Big step forward,” Harvey called it.
He’s not back to 98 yet, but that’s to be expected at this stage of the season. Alex Cobb said he needed a full year to get his velocity back when he had the procedure way back in 2011. At the start of the regular season, Harvey will be eight months removed.
Of course, Cobb doesn’t throw as hard as Harvey, but Mike Foltynewicz does. Harder, actually. He had the procedure late in 2015 and was pretty much back to normal by last May. Every example we’ve seen suggests Harvey will be back to normal at some point as well. He just may need more time.
How much more is what really determined whether he’s worth it or not in single-season leagues. He has at least two spring starts remaining, and with the progress he made in this last start, it’s not unthinkable he could be full-go by the start of the season. Of course, it’s not unthinkable he could need the full year either, limiting him until August.
My guess is it takes him about as long as it took Foltynewicz, meaning a month of struggles (which may be confined to extended spring training actually) followed by five months of retro Harvey production.
If you can draft him outside the top 40 starting pitchers, which the hyperventilating New York media has made fully possible, it’s worth the risk.
Health in Cleveland
The Indians got two encouraging updates on the health front Monday.
Michael Brantley, who had surgery to re-attach a muscle in his right shoulder after his 2016 never really got off the ground, made his Cactus League debut and went 2 for 3 with two singles. He had already played in a few on the minor-league side to reacclimate himself to game conditions, but manager Terry Francona was still expecting to see more rust than he did.
“He looked amazingly normal for a guy that hasn’t played very much,” Francona told MLB.com.
When last healthy, Brantley was of course an elite outfielder in Fantasy -- sort of the player Christian Yelich is aspiring to be as an assured .300 hitter with 20-20 potential -- but after the year that was, he’s more of less an afterthought in Fantasy. A couple more of these games could shoot him up the rankings.
Carlos Carrasco, meanwhile, pitched a minor-league game after getting pounded in his last Cactus League appearance March 13 because of inflammation in his elbow. He sat at 93-94 mph, which is reportedly normal for him in spring training, and called the outing a “huge relief.”
“My last game, I was trying to throw my breaking pitches, and I couldn’t,” he told MLB.com. “My changeup was good today. My curveball, slider, everything felt fine.”
Looks like he’s still safe to target among the top 15 starting pitchers.
10K in record time
Whatever Francisco Liriano found in Toronto last year, he took with him to Florida this spring.
Tuesday’s start offered the clearest indication yet that the 33-year-old still has plenty left in the tank.
You’d think the 2.92 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings he put together in 10 appearances, eight starts, after coming over from the Pirates last July would have already tipped us off. After all, his velocity held steady even after his earlier struggles with Pittsburgh. Word is Blue Jays pitching coach Pete Walker helped him rediscover his release point, so age was never really the issue.
Liriano averaged a 3.26 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings in the three years prior to last year, and I suspect he’ll be that type of pitcher again this year, making him one of the more attractive late-round selections on Draft Day.
Slimming effect
After squandering the first two years of his five-year pact with the Red Sox, Pablo Sandoval recommitted to controlling his weight this offseason, a decision that has helped resuscitate him in the past.
And early returns this spring suggest it will again.
Sandoval followed a two-homer game Saturday with a two-double game Monday, bringing his spring line to this:
That strikeout-to-walk ratio could be better, but plate discipline was never his strength anyway. You may recognize this swing from his World Series MVP days:
“He had some really good at-bats today, particularly left-handed,” manager John Farrell told MLB.com. “He had some deep at-bats using the whole field, the bat speed is there.”
Third base is already overloaded, so Sandoval will have a hard time regaining mixed-league status, at least to begin the year. But he needs to be on everyone’s radar again. We probably haven’t seen the last of him as a quality major-leaguer.
Room for one more?
Michael Brantley’s return to health would mean the Indians would have a full outfield, with Tyler Naquin manning center and Lonnie Chisenhall in right.
It would also mean prospect Bradley Zimmer has to bide his time after a spring in which he has only moved up his arrival date. After homering in two at-bats Monday, here’s how his numbers look:
Strikeouts have been a problem for him and especially were during his adjustment to Triple-A Columbus late last season, but he clearly hasn’t embarrassed himself against major-league pitching. The skill set isn’t too unlike that of former (albeit short-lived) face of the franchise Grady Sizemore. He offers power, speed and on-base ability, but with some batting average limitations.
If he handles Triple-A better this time around, it’s not unthinkable he could overtake Chisenhall as early as mid-May.
Lopez a cut above
Before the Dan Warthen slider, there was the Don Cooper cutter, and the White Sox pitching coach has gotten grubby paws on Reynaldo Lopez.
The former Nationals prospect best known for hitting triple digits with his fastball has begun incorporating the pitch into his arsenal this spring, primarily as a way of neutralizing left-handed hitters. The results speak for themselves.
That was Lopez mowing down Giants over six shutout innings Monday. After a bumpy first outing, here’s what the 23-year-old has done in his past three:
Lopez had his moments as a starter for the Nationals late last season, most notably an 11-strikeout effort against the Braves on Aug. 18, but the work he has put in with Cooper, which includes where he stands on the pitching rubber, could help make him more consistent.
“All of the things I’ve been working on with Coop, trying to move more to the middle of the box, trying to locate my pitches in the right spot ... all of those things I was able to execute today,” Lopez told MLB.com.
If it continues, it won’t be long before he’s bumping Derek Holland or Miguel Gonzalez from the big-league rotation.
