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USATSI

47 days until Opening Day ... 

You only get the one first-round pick every year, and it's the most valuable asset you have in building your Fantasy Baseball team. But one first-rounder isn't enough. Something could go wrong with your first-round pick, of course, but you also just need multiple players to produce like first-rounders to really be a championship contender. 

But here's the thing: If you draft right, you can overcome something going wrong. We had high-stakes player Mike Mager on Fantasy Baseball Today this week to talk Auction/Salary Cap draft strategies, and Mager won the NFBC Auction Championship overall prize last season despite Yordan Alvarez being his highest-priced player. How'd he do it? Well, he got a first-round (and more) caliber season out of Cal Raleigh, which went a long way toward getting him to the promised land. 

Raleigh's emergence as one of the best hitting catchers in MLB history for at least one season wasn't exactly part of the plan, but correctly identifying him as a target with upside was clearly a smart play. Any road to a Fantasy championship is likely going to require multiple elite, impact players to get you there, so you've got to find players who can make that first-round impact elsewhere. If it's in the second round, that's great; if it's in the 10th, well, that's even better. 

What we're looking for today are players being picked outside of the first round this season who could end up there this time next year. Here are 13 candidates: 

Next year's first-round contenders

Gunnar Henderson, SS, Orioles 

Current ADP: 15.5

We'll start with a guy who was a first-rounder this time last season. I have some concerns about whether Henderson's ceiling is truly as high as we thought when he looked like one of the best hitters in baseball in the first half of 2024, but I don't really hold his 2025 struggles against him. He dealt with a spring intercostal strain and fought through a shoulder injury the rest of the way, and even then, it's not like his underlying skills really took much of a hit – his strikeout rate declined for the third year in a row, while his average exit velocity was down 0.7 mph from 2024 but actually up from 2023. Henderson clearly wasn't right in 2025, but he wasn't totally wrecked either, and if the floor in an injury-wrecked season is 17 homers and 30 steals, it's not hard to see how first-round production is still the ceiling. He's still just 24 until late June, so this one feels like a fairly safe bet. 

Junior Caminero, 3B, Rays

Current ADP: 14.6

Caminero is currently going off boards just ahead of Henderson, but I think his path to first-round value is probably a bit murkier. That's not a knock on Caminero; it's just recognizing that his game, right now, isn't quite as fantasy-friendly as Henderson's.

Of course, if you buy Caminero as a true talent 40-homer guy, the path is a lot clearer. It basically comes down to whether he can retain his elite power while tapping into a better batting average. The skill set wasn't there in 2025 despite Caminero's strong quality of contact metrics and below-average strikeout rate, because his swing isn't quite optimized just yet. He hits the ball in the air a decent amount, with good pull-size power, hence the 45 homers. But he combines both an above-average pop-up rate (8.5%, compared to 7.1% for the league) and an unusually high number of balls classified as "topped" by BaseballSavant.com (36.2%; average is 32.4%), and you just aren't going to find batting average with those types of batted balls.

And if you aren't going to steal bases (Caminero's sprint speed was 30th percentile in 2025, and he hasn't had more than seven steals in a season since 2022), you need to be truly helpful in batting average to be a first-round pick. Caminero didn't hurt you with his .264 mark last season, but his .255 xBA doesn't suggest there's an imminent breakout coming in that category. But he's so young, and the bat-to-ball skills are so strong that I'm certainly not writing it off. A .285 average and 40 homers are well within Caminero's range of possible outcomes. 

Kyle Tucker, OF, Dodgers

Current ADP: 17.7

You might argue that Tucker already deserves to be in the first round if you are Scott White. I think that argument is persuasive, and I think Tucker has become kind of underrated, thanks mostly to some fluky injuries over the past two seasons. His 2024 was derailed by a misdiagnosed fracture in his leg, and then the same thing happened to a fractured hand that he ultimately played through in 2025. But when Tucker is on the field, I don't think there's any question he is a first-round caliber player – his 162-game average over the past three seasons is .278-107-32-102-29. And now he's playing in the best lineup in baseball. If you're scared off by the injuries, I can't imagine there's much I could say to convince you that they just aren't likely to be an issue in 2026, and if he stays healthy, I think you're getting first-round production out of him. 

Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics

Current ADP: 18.4

My heart really isn't in this one, because the path is basically, "Become Aaron Judge." Kurtz wasn't far off Judge's rookie season, but where Judge's .430 wOBA in 2017 was backed up by a .450 xwOBA, Kurtz's .419 mark came with a .372 xwOBA. He hits the ball hard, but not quite as hard as Judge, and it doesn't seem likely Kurtz can match Judge's relatively modest stolen base upside – and his plate discipline as a rookie was markedly worse than Judge's, too. 

But you know, what? If you can hit 50 homers, you have first-round upside. Kurtz has the raw power to get there, and a home park that should help him a lot on the way there. 50 homers is a big ask, but as long as Kurtz is capable of it, a first-round outcome is within the realm of possibility. 

Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs

Current ADP: 30.6

I toyed with doing a "/James Wood" here, but if Wood isn't going to be a big base-stealing threat, it's just a lot harder to make the case for him as a potential first-rounder. Wood has the raw power to be a consistent 40-homer threat, but he struck out nearly 40% of the time in the second half last season and still doesn't have his swing geared toward lifting the ball and maximizing his immense raw power, which makes his path to first-round value even tougher to traverse.

Crow-Armstrong is kind of a mirror image of Wood, on the other hand. His physical tools as a hitter are significantly weaker, but he's much more optimized. Despite some of the worst swing decisions in baseball and pretty average raw power, Crow-Armstrong's power plays up thanks to his lift-and-pull swing. He doesn't hit the ball hard nearly as often as Wood does, but he's a lot better about hitting the ball in the air to the shorter parts of the fence, which is how he nearly matched Wood's homer output despite hitting the ball nearly five mph less hard on average.

And, of course, Crow-Armrstrong did that while stealing 35 bases, which is the real edge he has on Wood. If he can improve the plate discipline a bit, you can see Crow-Armstrong pushing that batting average closer to .270, which would put him a lot closer to the Francisco Lindor range of players. I don't have a lot of faith in Crow-Armstrong's plate discipline improving enough to get there, but you can see the path. 

Logan Gilbert, SP, Mariners

Current ADP: 35.2

It was an up-and-down season for Gilbert, who missed some time with an elbow issue and took a step back in ERA and WHIP from his breakout 2024 campaign. But there were signs that this might have been the best version of Gilbert we've ever seen, too. His splitter has emerged in recent years as one of the best swing-and-miss pitches in the game, and he has a whole arsenal of other weapons to lean on, en route to a 32.3% strikeout rate last season, which would have just edged out Tarik Skubal for the best mark among starters if he had enough innings to qualify. The lingering injury risk is a concern, but if Gilbert can consolidate the strikeout gains from 2025 while getting back to being a 200-inning guy, I think "best pitcher in Fantasy" is within the range of outcomes here. 

Wyatt Langford, OF, Rangers

Current ADP: 49.7

Part of me wants to put this discussion to rest with Langford, who has been overdrafted in consecutive years by Fantasy players convinced he is one of the most talented players in baseball. But then I take a step back and think about this: As a 23-year-old, Langford just went for 22 homers and 22 steals in 134 games despite dealing with an oblique injury on four separate occasions. Oblique injuries are one of the worst for hitters to deal with, as they tend to sap rotational explosiveness, which is what hitting is all about. Despite that, Langford saw across-the-board improvements in quality of contact, and while his strikeout rate moved in the wrong direction, his swing decisions and contact skills still suggest he deserves better than a 26% strikeout rate.

Which is all to say, while I'm not necessarily pushing Langford aggressively up my draft boards to make sure I end up with him, I'm much more open to drafting him at his current cost than I was the previous two seasons. There's clearly a strong, well-rounded skill set here, and it's not unreasonable to think he could develop into a Kyle Tucker-esque contributor very quickly – though his home park will never help him in the power department, which is one big hurdle. 

Cole Ragans, SP, Royals

Current ADP: 51.2

Ragans is kind of a more extreme version of the case for Gilbert. He missed significant time with shoulder issues, but when he was on the mound, Ragans was dominant. The 4.67 ERA doesn't tell that story, but the 2.68 xERA, 2.50 FIP, and 38.1% strikeout rate sure do. The injury track record here is long and features a very recent scare, though the fact that Ragans was able to return to strike out 22 in 13 innings at the end of the season counts as a good sign in my eyes. Ragans is one of the biggest boom-or-bust pitchers on the board in 2026 drafts, but there aren't many pitchers whose boom outcomes could be more impactful than what he flashed last season. 

Roman Anthony, OF, Red Sox 

Current APD: 56.1

Anthony is another one who doesn't have prototypical first-rounder speed, though his four steals in 71 games suggest there should at least be 10-steal upside here. But if he's going to get to the first round, it's going to be because he mashes his way there. Anthony doesn't have Kurtz's penchant for elevating the ball with authority, but the raw power is there – his 94.5 mph average exit velocity and 60.3% hard-hit rate as a 21-year-old rookie both would have ranked among the four highest marks among all hitters if he qualified for leaderboards. He didn't elevate the ball enough to tap into it as a rookie, though that did start to change, and he put up a .407 xwOBA over his final 100 plate appearances, a mark only Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Shohei Ohtani matched last season. 

A pre-2024 Soto isn't a terrible comp if you're looking for a best-case scenario outcome for Anthony; he won't walk as much as Soto, though he'll walk plenty, and his home park could help him be a more consistent batting average contributor than Soto. All in all, if you're making the case for Anthony, you're looking for someone who could hit .280-plus with 30 homers and huge contributions in runs and RBI, while not being a zero in steals. And in a H2H points league, the path to first-round viability is even clearer with a doubles-over-homers approach and plenty of walks. Anthony could absolutely be one of the five or so best hitters in baseball soon enough. 

Brice Turang, 2B, Brewers

Current ADP: 65.7

You're skeptical of Turang's power surge in 2025? Me too! It came along with a bat speed spike that showed up in the first week of the season, though the results on the field took a while to actually manifest – he hit just six homers through the end of July before crushing 10 in August … only to hit just two more in September. Did Turang have a power breakout, or did he have a good month? 

It's perfectly fair to be skeptical, but for the purposes of this exercise, we're mostly focused on what could happen for these players in a best-case scenario, and well, I think Turang's best-case scenario very well may be that of a first-round player. He needs to replicate the best parts of his 2025 season (.288 average, 18 HR, 178 combined runs and RBI) with the base-stealing proficiency he showed in 2024, when he swiped 50. It's not the likeliest outcome on the board, but we are talking about a guy who has already shown all the skills we need to see at different points. Now he just has to put them all together. 

Kyle Bradish, SP, Orioles

Current ADP: 76.8

I'm not the first person to make this comp, but … is anyone getting 2024 Tarik Skubal vibes from Bradish? Bradish comes in with a higher pre-injury floor than Skubal, while Skubal's post-injury dominance lasts a bit longer than Bradish's, but the point is, both flashed legitimate ace upside coming off elbow surgeries. Now, the question is whether Bradish can sustain it like Skubal did. 

Bradish, of course, established himself as a very useful pitcher in 2023, when he finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting with a 2.83 ERA in 168.2 innings. He did that with a good, but not great, 25% strikeout rate, however. Then he came out in 2024 after dealing with a sprained elbow and struck out 32.5% of opposing batters before ultimately needing Tommy John surgery. When he returned in 2025, he was even better, sporting a 37.3% strikeout rate, with his pre-injury velocity completely intact. 

The Skubal comp is probably unfair, but that's the kind of pitcher Bradish has been over the past two seasons when he has been healthy. He enters 2026 healthy and without obvious innings limitations and has Cy Young upside if he can simply keep doing what he's done lately. 

Geraldo Perdomo, SS, Diamondbacks

Current ADP: 79.1

Nobody expected Perdomo to be a first-round caliber player, including someone like me, who is notably significantly higher on Perdomo than the consensus. Which is weird, because Perdomo was the No. 15 player in Roto scoring last season, while he was the ninth-highest scorer in H2H points leagues. Nobody buys it, of course, because it came out of nowhere – a .235/.327/.330 hitter in his first four partial MLB seasons, Perdomo broke out with a .290/.389/.462 line last season.

And I don't expect him to be quite that good again. For one thing, getting 720 plate appearances in a season just doesn't happen very often; over the past five seasons, only Marcus Semien (three times), Shohei Ohtani, Matt Olson, and Kyle Schwarber (twice) have done it multiple times. So, if nothing else, you would expect some regression from Perdomo's 198 combined runs and RBI. But he's a supreme contact hitter who showed real bat speed improvements last season, leading to a 19.9% pulled-air rate and 25.5% line drive rate, two key ways to overcome otherwise middling quality of contact skills.

But then there's this: Of the 16 batted balls hit at least 400 feet in his career, nine came in 2025, and six of those came from Aug. 13 or later. There was seemingly a real change in skills here for Perdomo that projections systems may not be capturing. If he can be a 20-homer guy in this lineup with his plate discipline and speed, Perdomo could shock everyone by simply repeating what he did in 2025. 

Konnor Griffin, SS, Pirates

Current ADP: 214.9

The thing to know here is that Griffin will almost certainly never actually cost this price in drafts. He's going to keep rising as we approach the start of Spring Training, and then he'll either get pushed close to the top-100 if it becomes clear he's playing his way into a spot on the Pirates' Opening Day lineup or tumble if it looks like he's heading back down to the minors. Based on the fact that Griffin doesn't turn 20 until a month into the season and has played just 21 games above A ball, reasonable money would be on Griffin heading back to the minors for additional seasoning, but I'm not sure reason needs to win out here.

For one thing, the Pirates need to give their fan base (and Paul Skenes) a reason to believe they're going to compete soon. And for another thing, Griffin might just be so talented that he justifies skipping the high minors. He's pretty much the consensus top prospect in baseball and has drawn numerous Mike Trout comparisons coming off a .333/.415/.527 line with 21 homers and 65 steals in his first pro season. Making the leap to the majors as a teenager is asking a lot, but Griffin has already proven to be an outlier with how quickly he established himself last season, and while the Trout comparisons might be unfair, he has the look of a Fantasy difference maker at some point. If not Trout, he could still be Fernando Tatis, Ronald Acuna, or even Corbin Carroll or Julio Rodriguez, all of whom established themselves as first-round talents more or less immediately.