Is Matt Davidson leading the majors in home runs a surprise? What about Hunter Strickland tying for the saves lead?

I wouldn't have predicted either a week ago, so technically speaking, yes, absolutely.

But we've had so many occasions to discuss them already -- from waiver wire recommendation pieces to bullpen roundup pieces -- that including them here would feel like a missed opportunity.

And while I wouldn't have predicted the exact outcome for either, the circumstances for each make both plausible enough. Davidson has big power and can hit bunches of home runs in a short period of time. Strickland is, at least for now, the Giants closer. These things will happen.

But these other things? I'm not sure most of us were ready for them.

Ian Happ's playing time isn't assured

In a departure from most everything Joe Maddon and Theo Epstein said throughout spring training, Happ hasn't been a fixture at the top of the Cubs lineup, starting just two of the first four games. Both of the times he sat was in favor of Albert Almora against a lefty, and he has yet to man second base. Managers will more often mix in bench players at the start of a season just to get them in the flow of things, but seeing as Almora and Ben Zobrist have each started twice, same as Happ, it's looking more like a rotation in this instance. And Happ himself isn't helping matters by striking out in eight of his first 14 plate appearances.

Need to see more, of course, but hopefully you have a backup plan.

Gerrit Cole is still fastball-heavy -- and it's amazing

Much of the optimism surrounding Gerrit Cole this March stemmed from how effective the Astros are at using data to maximize their pitchers' abilities, and there was data suggesting the former first overall pick would be better served de-emphasizing his hard but otherwise average fastball.

As much as one game can tell us, though, it's more like they've made his fastball better. He recorded 21 swinging strikes in Sunday's 11-strikeout effort at the Rangers, more than in any start last year, and a whopping 11 came on his fastball.

His slider usage was up, which may have helped bolster the fastball, but the bottom line is I have even more trust in what the Astros are doing here.

Jose Martinez is an everyday player

Oh, how I wished for it and would have liked to know back when I was still drafting. But there it is, plain as day: Jose Martinez has started all four of the Cardinals' games, including Monday. And if you're the sort who requires verbal confirmation on all matters, here it is:

"He's our everyday guy," third base coach Jose Oquendo told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. "Once in a while, he's going to get rest and we'll use [Matt Carpenter] out there. But, for the most part, it looks like Martinez is going to be there every day."

I think he's a special hitter -- maybe not enough to crack the top 10 at first base, but certainly worth rostering and possibly worth starting in all formats. Given his high line-drive rate, low strikeout rate and all-fields approach, the expected batting average makes him a nice find in Rotisserie leagues especially.

Gabe Kapler is the talk of baseball

Managers are more like mid-managers in 2018 and rarely move the conversation, but when a rookie manager with a penchant for going against the grain sees it fail so spectacularly over and over again, in ways that are uncommonly obvious to the casual viewer, it's certainly noteworthy.  It's a real-time reckoning of some of the biggest tensions in the game today, from data vs. convention to the practice of bullpening to the relative importance of leadership. Every day is another case study, and I'm loving it.

Most notable for Fantasy owners is the way he used his ace, Aaron Nola, in the season opener, pulling him after 68 pitches even though he had a shutout going in the sixth inning. Maybe he was just going easy on the 24-year-old in his first turn of the season, but in part, it sounds like Kapler looked at Nola's numbers in his third turn through a batting order last year and decided he should pull the plug.

Of course, we see the carryover effect it had on the bullpen -- every staff needs length from someone, and Nola is the best the Phillies have -- so maybe Kapler leans on Nola a little more going forward. That's the hope, anyway.

Kenley Jansen isn't throwing hard

While it's true several pitchers -- particularly starting pitchers -- are down a couple miles per hour from a year ago, presumably the product of them still building up to midseason form, we're talking more than just a couple for Jansen. He averaged 89 mph on his most-used pitch, the cutter, in his season debut Friday, after averaging 93 on it a year ago.

Now, it's worth noting that the only damage off him in the ninth inning of that game was a solo home run, and perhaps the diminished velocity would have eluded our attention if he had escaped that inning unscathed. Manager Dave Roberts seems to think it's a mechanical issue, pointing out that Jansen's cutter hit 94 mph in his second spring appearance, and Jansen allowed just one hit in 4 2/3 innings, striking out six, this spring.

It's so hard to make anything of one appearance -- particularly a relief appearance, as brief as they are -- and I feel like we'll know much more about Jansen's condition a week from now. But the fact we're even asking these questions for what was supposed to be the safest of closers has to concern his Fantasy owners.

Yonder Alonso can hit lefties after all

You may remember Alonso's breakout 2017 lost its momentum when he was traded to the Mariners, who didn't care to use him against left-handed pitchers -- and it's no wonder seeing as he hit .263 with a .679 OPS against lefties last season. But he went 10 for 20 with two home runs against lefties this spring, and then did this against one of the fiercest lefties of all, James Paxton, on Saturday:

Alonso, you may not have heard, tied for the spring lead with seven homers, so it's reasonable to assume his power gains of a year ago, the result of a concerted effort to hit more fly balls, have stuck. What we may have underestimated, though, is his potential for growth beyond that. Improving against lefties is a good place to start.

Adam Eaton looks healthy again

There was talk mid-spring, when Adam Eaton still hadn't played a game yet, that he might have to begin the year on the DL, allowing extra time to recover from a torn ACL. Even after he returned March 17, he only once played two days in a row, leading to speculation the Nationals would take it easy with him.

But he played a second day in a row Saturday, going 5 for 5 with two doubles and a homer, and then he played a third day in a row Sunday, going 2 for 5 with a homer. So how did it feel?

"Brutal," he said between Saturday and Sunday's game. "Honestly. It takes a lot to get ready. But once you get hot, I can stay hot." 

I still suspect the Nationals will see fit to sit him once a week, but at this point, I want him in my lineup regardless.

Michael Conforto is already set to return

When he tore his shoulder capsule last August, I wondered if Michael Conforto would ever be the same, but he has looked so good in spring and extended spring that he may beat his timetable by a month, returning from the DL as early as Thursday.

The track record for pitchers coming back from this type of injury is discouraging, but Conforto's is on the other side of the shoulder and he's, of course, a hitter. We don't have a precedent for his situation, but he has demonstrated his usual power in both batting practice and game action, and has the upside of a top-20 outfielder, having led the Mets with a .939 OPS last year.

Shohei Ohtani showed us all

In the little bit we saw him this spring, Shohei Ohtani was a disaster in all facets, but here's your rude reminder it was only spring training: 

So in his major league debut -- pardon, his pitching debut -- he recorded 18 swinging strikes on 92 pitches, his fastball touching 100 mph and his splitter unreal.

I don't know if the hitting thing will pan out -- I don't know if he'll even keep it up all year -- but I have a good feeling Ohtani will live up to his ADP on pitching alone.

I look like a humidork

Our first look at the humidor in Arizona was pretty spectacular.

For offense, that is. The Diamondbacks and Rockies combined for 30 runs in a three-game slate -- and that was with purportedly good pitchers like Jon Gray, Robbie Ray and Zack Greinke taking the hill (Greinke at least performed well). The Rockies alone hit seven home runs.

As one of the loudest and most discouraging voices on the humidor's offense-sapping effects, it's of course not what I anticipated, but it's also just a drop in the bucket relative to a whole season's worth of data. Home runs were still going to be hit there, and some of them figured to be hit over a short span of time.

Am I still worried it'll be some crazy pitcher's paradise the likes of which most of us have never seen? Definitely questioning it at this point. But I still think Robbie Ray is a fine buy-low candidate and wouldn't feel too comfortable with Jake Lamb as my starting third baseman. 

Starting pitchers are being removed even earlier

The decline in innings for starting pitchers formed a big part of my draft strategy, and if patterns held, it stood to reason they'd decline even more this year. Based on the little evidence we have so far, that seems to be the case. Take these numbers provided by Brian Kenny of MLB Network:

Notable enough, but not an apples-to-apples comparison since starting pitchers generally aren't pushed as hard when they're not in midseason form. This is only the first time through the starting rotation, after all. Our own Chris Towers, though, dug a little deeper:

It's still only a tiny fraction of the season contributing to these numbers, so I wouldn't want to make too much of it, but it only furthers the point. Maybe Gabe Kapler isn't the only one scared of using his best pitchers that third time through the order. Or maybe some of the best pitchers in the game just happened to be unusually inefficient and/or bad this first time through.

In any case, the true innings-eater is a dwindling commodity and, because innings are so closely tied to wins, probably more valuable than we've seen in Fantasy Baseball in years.

Ryan McMahon is purely ornamental

Three games in, Ryan McMahon has yet to start a game for the Rockies. Conventional wisdom says you don't call up a top prospect to have him sit on the bench, allowing his skills to stagnate rather than develop, but manager Bud Black is playing this one another way. The pressure is on McMahon now to deliver with the few opportunities he gets and put himself in a position to impact Fantasy leagues.

Kevin Pillar can move when he wants to

Granted, Pillar's three stolen bases came in the same inning off the same battery (Dellin Betances and Gary Sanchez) and may have been an example of him taking advantage of that particular set of circumstances. But the guy can move -- his defensive metrics tell us that -- and does have a 25-steals season in his history. I could see it becoming a bigger part of the game plan with the Blue Jays offense no longer the juggernaut we've known it to be in recent seasons.

Such pie-in-the-sky hopes are commonplace this time of year but still possibly worth entertaining, especially when pursuing something as scarce as steals. He's not a huge priority, of course, but in a couple Rotisserie leagues where more than 300 players are rostered and I had a free spot because of a player going on the DL, he called out to me from the waiver wire. Maybe he doesn't steal another base the rest of the week. That's fine. I'll cut him when something cooler pops up on the waiver wire.