The Yankees needed an outfielder, and the Cubs had too many, so a trade between these two teams for former MVP Cody Bellinger has been heavily rumored ever since the Cubs acquired Kyle Tucker. And the trade came together Tuesday, with the Cubs agreeing to send Bellinger to the Yankees.
It's a remarkably straightforward trade: Bellinger (and $5 million) for middle reliever Cody Poteet. Yep, that's it. A year ago, Bellinger was looking for a $200 million contract; now he's being traded for a pitcher who had 16 strikeouts in 24.1 innings of work last season.
The irony is, I'm not sure anything has fundamentally changed about Bellinger between 2023 and 2024. His production was worse, of course, as he dipped from an .881 OPS in 2023 to a .751 mark in 2024. But the fundamentals of his game didn't change very much. Don't believe me? Just look at this somewhat arbitrary (but representative) list of stats:
K%
- 2023: 15.6%
- 2024: 15.6%
BB%
- 2023: 7.2%
- 2024: 7.9%
Average Exit Velocity
- 2023: 87.9 mph
- 2024: 87.8 mph
Barrel rate
- 2023: 6.1%
- 2024: 6.3%
This is hardly an exhaustive list of metrics that go into player performance, but I think it captures the gist of it: Bellinger wasn't really a dramatically different player in 2024 despite the very different production. Part of that is that Bellinger just way overperformed in 2023, running a .370 wOBA compared to his .327 xwOBA, one of the biggest gaps in baseball.
There was an attempt by some to explain why Bellinger's overperformance in 2023 wasn't, and to those folk's credit, he also overperformed in 2024, putting up a .322 wOBA compared to his .301 xwOBA. Of course, that's a much smaller gap and made Bellinger a much fringe-ier Fantasy option – though still a very useful one, finishing, as he did, with 18 homers and nine steals in his 130 games.
And it's not unreasonable to expect better in 2025 now that he's going to be calling Yankee Stadium home for half of his games. Bellinger isn't the fearsome power hitter he was in his younger days, but Yankee Stadium should help him overcome some of what he has lost; in 2024, he would have hit 24 homers if he played every game at Yankee Stadium, per BaseballSavant's xHR stat, compared to just 15 at Wrigley Field. Bellinger is more of a spray hitter than he used to be, but he does a good job elevating the ball to the pull side, and that'll play a lot better with Yankee Stadium's short porch.
And he makes a lot of sense for the Yankees' current needs. He's still a viable center fielder and should allow the Yankees to move Aaron Judge to a corner, which might be worth the roughly $20 million the Yankees are going to pay Bellinger on its own. He is also capable of playing first base at a high level, so while the Yankees still seem likely to make one more big splash for a bat who can stand at the cold corner, if a center fielder is easier to find, Bellinger gives them the flexibility to go in that direction, either this offseason or in-season.
Bellinger is neither the MVP-level player he was at his peak nor even the guy he looked like in 2023. But he's still an obvious upgrade for the Yankees and might be uniquely well-suited to take advantage of their home park. The arrow is certainly pointing up for him with this move, and if he can get back to being more like a 20-steal guy like he was in 2023, you can squint and see a path back to a top-50 finish for Bellinger. I'm ranking him around 100th overall in my Roto rankings after this trade as my No. 26 outfielder. That's a nice little boost, thanks to this trade.
And what about the Cubs? What does it mean for them?
Well, they've still got some work to do to make this roster really make sense. They probably had an overabundance of outfielders even before trading for Kyle Tucker, so this only partially solves that. Many of their top prospects are outfielders, too, with the likes of Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcantara, and Alexander Canario all having proven themselves at the highest levels of the minors. And they still have Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Tucker, and Seiya Suzuki for three outfield spots plus DH, so there just isn't any room for any of those prospects even after this trade.
Which means another trade seems likely. The Cubs don't exactly operate like one of the biggest market teams in the league, but with the trade for Tucker on an expiring contract, it makes sense to push the chips in. They've been linked to Marlins starter Jesus Luzardo, with Caissie specifically mentioned as a name that could go back in the opposite direction. That's a move that would make sense for both sides and would still leave the Cubs with admirable outfield depth. As for Poteet, well, he has some starting experience and will probably serve as a swingman for a Cubs team that still needs some more rotation depth.
Expect at least one more big move from both the Cubs and Yankees in the aftermath of this deal. But both rosters are starting to make a little more sense now.
