Fantasy Baseball Trade Values: Time to buy Chris Sale, Dylan Cease; Sell Charlie Morton?

It's been a few weeks since we've had a Fantasy Baseball Trade Values Chart on CBSSports.com, which means there have been some sizeable changes in players' values. Before we get to this week's updated trade values and rankings, let's take a look at three players I'm trying to buy right now and one I'd very much like to sell: 

Three to buy

Chris Sale, SP, Red Sox

Something clicked for Sale a few weeks back. He had zero strikeouts against the Orioles on April 24 and his ERA through five starts was sitting at 8.22. If you though he was finished, you certainly weren't alone, and with just two swinging strikes on 83 pitches in that outing, it was awfully hard to argue against that claim. He showed some signs of turning things around with his next start, liming the Guardians to just one run over 6.1 innings, albeit with just five strikeouts; a nice outing, but hardly a turn-back-the-clock kind of performance. No, he was saving that kind of showing for his past two outings. Sale struck out 10 against the Phillies in his next outing and then followed that one up with an absolute vintage performance, striking out nine in eight one-run innings against the Cardinals Saturday. He got 16 swinging strikes in that one, including a season-high 11 with his slider, and suddenly he looks pretty good. His 5.40 ERA is still pretty ugly, but he has a much more impressive 3.78 FIP and 3.49 xFIP to go along with it, plus a 28.7% strikeout rate that isn't far off his career mark. Is Sale a top-12 pitcher again? Probably not, but we're seeing flashes of it, and I'm willing to buy in on him at what might still be a discounted price. He's back to being a top-40 starting pitcher for me. 

Dylan Cease, SP, White Sox

I had Cease as a bust pick entering the season, so you'd think I would be celebrating his struggles and running as far away as I can. However, that bust pick was all about being lower on him than the consensus – I had him as a top-20 pitcher despite my misgivings, and he's still ranked there for me. His struggles aren't just bad luck – his 4.86 ERA even after a very good outing Saturday is more or less in line with his xERA, FIP, and xFIP – but I still have quite a bit of faith he'll be very good moving forward. Just not an ace, necessarily. He still walks too many guys (4.27 per nine) and hasn't recaptured last year's dominance on batted balls, but he's better than this. 

Gunnar Henderson, 3B, Orioles

There's a fine line between being patient and being passive, and I think Henderson's on the wrong side of it right now. Henderson's 19.3% chase rate is exceptional, but it's a bit less impressive when you realize he's also swinging at just 55.8% of pitches inside of the strike zone. Henderson has plenty of swing and miss in his game, but he also hits the ball hard when he makes contact, and while there's always some risk of him becoming even more strikeout prone, given his struggles so far, it's a risk I'd like to see him take. He's still a talented player with loud physical tools, and I'd like to see him putting them into action a bit more often. He's starting to show signs of life in May despite his batting average remaining well below the Mendoza line – he's cut his strikeout rate to 21.7% without sacrificing much in quality of contact – and I think this is a perfect time to try to buy low. Hopefully his homer Saturday, one of three hard-hit balls in that game – is the start of big things. 

One to sell

Charlie Morton, SP, Braves

I wasn't necessarily out on Morton this season, but I didn't draft him anywhere after getting burned pretty bad by him the prior season. So, you could say I'm kicking myself for not drafting him now that he has a 3.32 ERA through his first seven starts. However, that's mostly because I think he's a really good trade chip right now, and I wish I could take advantage of that. Morton's walk rate is actually worse than last year's, which was already his highest since 2018, and his strikeout rate has collapsed to 21.9%. That's despite the fact that he's throwing his curveball, his best swing-and-miss pitch, more than ever, at 44.9%. He's getting good results with the pitch overall, generating a bunch of weak contact on the ground, but I'm not sure he can sustain this level of play even with that. Because his fastballs remain a problem, allowing a .392 expected wOBA with his four-seamer and a whopping .563 mark with his sinker. I wouldn't be surprised if Morton started getting a few more strikeouts moving forward, but I don't think it'll be enough to overcome the other steps back he's taken. His 4.79 expected ERA suggests much worse times are ahead, and I don't want to be around when it happens. 

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