At a time when starting pitching is becoming more of an accessory than a focal point, existing to navigate the early innings rather than form the foundation for every win and loss — Martin Perez gave us a rare something to believe in.
A former top prospect who never panned out with the Rangers, he arrived in Minnesota throwing harder and with a new cutter that quickly became his favorite pitch. It stood to reason, then, he would get different results. He was a changed pitcher, after all.
But there were signs it still wasn't enough even as he followed up his eight shutout innings on May 1 with seven shutout innings on May 6 — i.e. the two-start stretch that caused his ownership to spike. He had struck out less than a batter per inning, and his walk rate was still a cause for concern. His success was mostly predicated on a low BABIP, which may have been a testament to how difficult the cutter was to square up. But more likely, he was bound for regression.
Things came to a head Thursday against the Rays, when he followed up a couple lackluster starts with his worst of the year, allowing six runs in 2 2/3 innings. So what happened?
"Everything was good," Perez told MLB.com. "They [just] didn't swing at the cutter."
Yes, word may have gotten out about that transformative pitch and its crippling effects. As often as Perez was throwing it, you had to figure it'd become harder to disguise as the league got more familiar with it.
"I think the biggest thing was bringing him into you, for a lefty, because he likes to throw that cutter on the outside corner and kind of down," said Austin Meadows, whose adherence to that scouting report led to a double off Perez. He waited for an inside pitch and left the cutter alone.
It doesn't necessarily mean this is the end for Perez. Maybe the cutter didn't have its usual cut Thursday. Maybe the Rays were abnormally selective. But it sounds like the gimmick could be wearing off, no longer benefiting from the element of surprise, in which case he doesn't have much else to fall back on.
And honestly, how long of a leash should a guy with a 3.71 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and less than a strikeout per inning have in Fantasy? Are we so desperate for impactful starting pitching that a couple starts of seven-plus innings earns our undying loyalty?
The answer should be no, of course, but ... what else is there to believe in?
Four players to add from Thursday
Didi Gregorius (73%) — It probably felt on Draft Day like Gregorius' return from Tommy John surgery was too far down the road to even consider, but we've come to that point in the road, according to manager Aaron Boone, who confirmed Thursday that Gregorius would probably return during the road trip that begins next week. The 29-year-old was a slam-dunk starter in all formats last year, so he's someone to scoop up regardless of your needs.
Avisail Garcia, OF, TB (52%) — Garcia collected three hits for the second straight game Thursday and has become a fixture in the Rays lineup despite not being such a data darling coming into the year. His batted-ball profile has improved enough that the numbers aren't so unbelievable, especially given the ease with which home runs are being hit across the league.
Ryan McMahon, 1B/2B, COL (41%) — I just can't quit on McMahon, in part because the Rockies themselves haven't, continuing to give him the majority of the starts at second base even though Brendan Rodgers has mostly performed up to expectations. And he's quietly showing signs of coming around, his 3-for-4 performance Thursday making him 13 for 36 (.361) with three homers over his past 13 games.
Jon Duplantier, SP, ARI (13%) — The prospect will make his first major-league start Friday, which was expected after a forearm strain landed Luke Weaver on the IL. Duplantier looked decent in five relief appearances, most of them multi-inning, earlier this year, but he issued 13 walks in 17 innings across six starts at Triple-A and has seen his stock fall since putting together a 1.39 ERA in A-ball two years ago. Still, he's a pitcher with upside, which is all it takes in some leagues.
Winners and Losers
Winners
Mike Minor, SP, TEX — Nobody should be impressed by Minor allowing three runs on eight hits over five innings, but it's the number beneath the numbers that makes him a winner here. He had a season-high 21 swinging strikes, offering the clearest indication that the stuff is playing differently for him this year. Combined with the Rangers' willingness to let him pitch deep into games, it's a big deal.
David Dahl, OF, COL — Though his BABIP seems destined to crash eventually, Dahl collected another four hits Thursday, giving him five multi-hit games in his past eight, and also homered for the second time in four games. The latter is where he has the most room to improve given that he entered the day with a home run-to-fly ball rate about half what it was last year, and it may be enough counteract the inevitable BABIP regression.
Christian Walker, 1B, ARI — Walker had gone more than two weeks without a home run or a multi-hit game but ended both of those droughts Thursday. The strikeout rate is alarming, but the fact he's third in FanGraphs hard-hit rate, behind just Joey Gallo and Christian Yelich, is reason to believe he may be good enough to overcome it. The Diamondbacks have stood by him even with the promotion of Kevin Cron, which also inspires hope.
Cesar Puello, OF, LAA — Puello collected another three hits and another home run Thursday after doing both in his season debut Wednesday. He had fine numbers at Triple-A, highlighted by a high walk rate, but he put the ball on the ground 62.3 percent of the time. That's an egregious number that prohibits any real power production, so there are reasons for skepticism beyond the fact he's a 28-year-old rookie.
Losers
Joe Musgrove, SP, PIT — It wasn't just that Musgrove allowed five earned runs on 11 hits for his fourth awful start in six chances, his ERA rising from 1.54 to 4.57 during that span. It's that the three home runs he gave up brought his season total to five. He was imploding despite having outrageous home run luck, which isn't a great sign moving forward.
Yusei Kikuchi, SP, SEA — For the second straight start, Kikuchi allowed 10 hits in 3 1/3 innings. He had one swinging strike after having just three last time. He generated real excitement coming over from Japan this offseason and has had his moments this year, but it's not like there's a standout pitch or skill to inspire great hope.
Carlos Carrasco, SP, CLE — Carrasco's ERA climbed to 4.98 with a six-run outing, which might cause some of his owners to panic, but the velocity and swinging strike rate are both where they should be. He's allowing more home runs, which could potentially be his new normal in a more homer-friendly environment, but both his xFIP and SIERA suggest his ERA should be south of 3.50.
Jerad Eickhoff, SP/RP, PHI — Eickhoff at least managed to go 6 1/3 innings Thursday, but he allowed three home runs. That's 10 in his past four starts — an especially concerning trend for a fly-ball pitcher. After an encouraging return to the starting rotation in mid-April, his days there may be numbered.