Over the past couple of days, I've reviewed my biggest rankings risers and fallers from the start of the season through the end of April, and we're ready for more rankings moves. Because Tuesday and Wednesday are the days that we here at Fantasy Baseball Today HQ dive deep into our rankings and make our adjustments, and there's been plenty to change, as we talked about on today's Fantasy Baseball Today podcast.
The biggest risers I talked were: Salvador Perez, Ryan Jeffers, Willy Adames, Gunnar Henderson, Jo Adell, Shota Imanaga, Jack Flaherty, Nick Lodolo, Mason Miller, Reynaldo Lopez. And the biggest fallers were: Nico Hoerner, Henry Davis, Cristopher Sanchez, Michael Kopech. I wrote about some of those guys over the past couple of days, so you don't really need to hear much more from me about them.
Instead, go check out Scott White's piece on his biggest rankings movers here. Scott wrote a ton about the state of starting pitching this preseason, and the idea of the "glob" at the position – a gigantic, largely undifferentiated group of pitchers after the difference makers were off the board. And a funny thing has happened in the early going this season: The glob no longer looks like an insulting term.
Last season, the starting pitcher landscape was dominated by mostly similar, mediocre options beginning in the SP40 range of the rankings. And, while the SP40 range is today dominated by pitchers who are tougher to differentiate from one another, the difference right now is that most of those pitchers are actually good. Or, at the very least interesting, depending on how quickly you are willing to buy into the likes of Jack Flaherty, Nick Lodolo, Mackenzie Gore, and others.
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Scott wrote about that group and a whole bunch more in his rankings movers piece, and you can see the full rankings from Scott, Frank Stampfl, and myself here. Plus, my Trade Values Charts have been updated here, so you can see what the overall landscape looks like in both H2H and Roto, too.
And now that that's out of the way, here's what you need to know from Wednesday's action around MLB, starting with the top waiver-wire targets:
Wednesday's top waiver targets
Jurickson Profar, OF, Padres (68%) – We had a long conversation about Profar that wasn't really just about Profar on today's Fantasy Baseball Podcast, and the general point was fairly straightforward: Profar almost certainly won't sustain his current hot streak. He's 31 years old and very well established as a major-leaguer, and you just generally shouldn't bet on those types of players suddenly establishing a new level of performance. But … Profar is hot right now, with the best underlying numbers of his career, so while I wouldn't drop anyone I have high hopes for – which includes disappointments like Nolan Jones – I don't mind adding Profar and playing the hot hand until he cools off.
Luis Gil, SP, Yankees (63%) – Gil entered this start with a combined walk and strikeout rate of 50%, so seeing him pitch into the seventh inning with just five strikeouts and one walk was one of the surprises of the season. The stuff is phenomenal, obviously, with the massive strikeout rate and very good quality of contact metrics, and if he can just throw more strikes like this, there's a considerable ceiling here. He's well behind other early-season breakouts like Erick Fedde or Reid Detmers, but if you want to add Gil just in case, I don't mind it.
Jose Butto, SP, Mets (41%) – I'm not sure I buy it in the long term, but Butto is generating pretty massive whiff numbers, especially with his slider, which generated six swinging strikes on 12 swings today and has a 60% whiff rate overall. The Cubs aren't the toughest matchup right now, but this also isn't the first good start we've seen from Butto, who has a 2.57 ERA and a useful 3.70 FIP. Is he a must-roster pitcher? Nah. But Butto's got the Cardinals up for his next start, and I would be willing to stream him for that one – though probably not the Braves the next time around.
Connor Wong, C, Red Sox (33%) – Seeing as Wong is hitting .366/.387/.620 in 75 PA so far this season, I fully expected to open his BaseballSavant.com page and see a bunch of red, indicating he's as locked in as Profar has been. Nope. And, even in his two-double, three-hit game Wednesday, he had one batted-ball hit over 100 mph, while one of his doubles had an expected batting average of just .280. He has snuck a few homers over the Green Monster this season, but doesn't hit the ball hard consistently, nor does he really pull it enough to think he can maximize his limited raw power. If you want to play the hot hand at catcher, the bar is so low for No. 2 catchers that he might be helpful. But I don't expect this to continue for long.
Roddery Muñoz, SP, Marlins (3%) – I'll admit, I had never heard of Muñoz before he made his MLB debut last week, and his minor-league track record is nothing to be excited about – he has a 5.20 career ERA with a 12.1% walk rate. The stuff is actually somewhat intriguing, but I just don't buy the three walks in 11 innings across his first two starts – he definitely benefited from facing the Rockies on the road this time around. And his next start is against the Dodgers (if he remains in Miami's rotation), so even if you wanted to take a flier just in case, it would have to be an incredibly deep league to justify it.